| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 93.30% | 9.7% |
| 2 | Clemson | 3 | 84.10% | 9.3% |
| 3 | Penn State | 5 | 65.58% | 17.8% |
| 4 | LSU | 4 | 61.75% | 13.9% |
| 5 | Alabama | 2 | 46.75% | 1.6% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 6 | 11.93% | -36.7% |
| 7 | Oregon | 10 | 9.83% | -1.9% |
| 8 | Florida | 11 | 7.80% | 1.0% |
| 9 | Georgia | 7 | 5.30% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Baylor | 21 | 4.15% | 1.0% |
| 11 | Utah | 12 | 3.32% | 1.1% |
| 12 | Auburn | 8 | 1.85% | -5.2% |
| 13 | Minnesota | 20 | 1.75% | 0.8% |
| 14 | Notre Dame | 14 | 1.04% | -11.1% |
| 15 | Michigan | 13 | 0.72% | 0.6% |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 9 | 0.44% | -2.2% |
| 17 | Wake Forest | 47 | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Appalachian State | 35 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Iowa | 18 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 20 | SMU | 41 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Kansas State | 34 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Indiana | 33 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Virginia Tech | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Once again the noon slot gives us one consequential upset, which may seem huge but is actually only enough to keep pace with our already slim chance of true chaos. What is far more likely is a sort of faux chaos where we actually have too many deserving teams for the four Playoff slots. This is once again illustrated by the test simulation I run before the real one (which I originally detailed here). This week it gives us a ridiculous top six as such:
In this case the two best teams (Ohio State and Bama) are both 11-1 but fail to win their conferences because of losses to Penn State and LSU, respectively. While both teams would have strong cases normally (especially the Buckeyes), this scenario gives us two absolute locks (LSU and Clemson), and two 1-loss power conference champs (PSU and Oklahoma). Based on recent history it would be hard to overcome those four teams, even though either runner-up could easily be the favorite where they to make the Playoff. Because of the angst this would cause, I am officially rooting for this to happen.
2. A few more teams bit the dust this week, with Pitt, Iowa State, Virginia, Texas, and Arizona State all taking a third loss. Texas has had a weird season with a) the preseason computers ratings being very low, b) the Longhorns looking good through the first few weeks, and c) an absolute nosedive since the Oklahoma loss. Now they get to be spoiler at best.
3. The ACC Coastal remains bizarre with Virginia losing but staying in a "commanding" lead. Minnesota is now a very slight favorite in the Big Ten West, but they have Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin still to go. The SEC basically has a four-team playoff at this point starting with Florida-Georgia this week and continuing with Bama-LSU the next. And 3-5 UCLA still has roughly a 2% chance of beating both Utah and USC to win the Pac 12 South. Fun stuff all around.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 99.3% | Wake Forest | 0.7% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 47.2% | North Carolina | 26.3% | |
| AMEE | Cincinnati | 88.1% | Central Florida | 11.5% | |
| AMEW | SMU | 39.4% | Navy | 32.6% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 82.6% | Penn State | 17.4% | |
| B10W | Minnesota | 46.2% | Wisconsin | 41.2% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 84.8% | Baylor | 82.9% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 39.6% | Florida Atlantic | 38.1% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 64.8% | UAB | 16.3% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 54.1% | Miami (OH) | 44.0% | |
| MACW | Ball State | 41.9% | Western Michigan | 30.2% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 68.5% | Hawaii | 17.6% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 80.2% | Air Force | 12.2% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 99.95% | Oregon State | 0.03% | |
| P12S | Utah | 56.7% | USC | 41.6% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 54.2% | Florida | 45.7% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 70.5% | LSU | 29.4% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 91.8% | Georgia State | 6.2% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 94.3% | Arkansas State | 3.3% |
Week 10 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Georgia | Florida | 62.2% | 0.034 |
| USC | Oregon | 34.1% | 0.017 |
| Washington | Utah | 47.3% | 0.008 |
| Baylor | West Virginia | 89.4% | 0.001 |
| Auburn | Ole Miss | 92.8% | 0.001 |
| Notre Dame | Virginia Tech | 92.3% | 0.001 |
| Maryland | Michigan | 10.9% | 0.001 |
| Wake Forest | North Carolina State | 71.7% | 0.000 |
| Memphis | SMU | 64.1% | 0.000 |
| Kansas | Kansas State | 19.8% | 0.000 |
With the extra week between Labor Day and Thanksgiving this year comes an extra bye week for most teams. All the good teams are taking theirs this week, leaving an amazing dearth of high-importance games for a week relatively late in the season. Aside from the top three and SMU-Memphis, it's hard to recommend any of these to anyone other than the most diehard fan. Oh well, it's still football.
No comments:
Post a Comment