As always explanation here, data below, thoughts after.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 3 | 78.61% | 6.3% |
| 2 | Clemson | 2 | 71.90% | -11.0% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 1 | 52.14% | 4.3% |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 4 | 41.73% | 12.8% |
| 5 | Oregon | 9 | 36.95% | -0.3% |
| 6 | USC | 13 | 23.34% | -0.1% |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 14 | 14.91% | -8.9% |
| 8 | Michigan | 8 | 9.16% | 6.4% |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 6 | 8.95% | 5.5% |
| 10 | Washington | 26 | 8.81% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Georgia | 5 | 8.63% | -2.2% |
| 12 | Utah | 27 | 8.10% | -0.2% |
| 13 | Miami (FL) | 20 | 6.72% | 0.5% |
| 14 | Indiana | 25 | 3.51% | 2.8% |
| 15 | California | 46 | 3.17% | 0.2% |
| 16 | Arizona State | 45 | 2.77% | 0.1% |
| 17 | Stanford | 38 | 2.13% | -0.5% |
| 18 | BYU | 12 | 2.09% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Texas A&M | 22 | 2.06% | 0.5% |
| 20 | North Carolina | 17 | 1.94% | 0.9% |
| 21 | Penn State | 7 | 1.42% | -13.9% |
| 22 | Marshall | 32 | 1.41% | 0.5% |
| 23 | Boise State | 28 | 1.39% | 0.6% |
| 24 | UCLA | 61 | 1.04% | -0.1% |
| 25 | Florida | 11 | 0.97% | -0.2% |
| 26 | Washington State | 62 | 0.91% | -0.1% |
| 27 | Purdue | 43 | 0.76% | 0.7% |
| 28 | Oklahoma | 10 | 0.67% | 0.5% |
| 29 | Cincinnati | 21 | 0.64% | 0.6% |
| 30 | Northwestern | 29 | 0.46% | 0.3% |
| 31 | Arizona | 71 | 0.26% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Oregon State | 70 | 0.25% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Iowa State | 24 | 0.23% | -0.3% |
| 34 | Virginia Tech | 19 | 0.20% | -1.8% |
| 35 | Ohio | 80 | 0.19% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Buffalo | 76 | 0.18% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Colorado | 81 | 0.15% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Texas | 15 | 0.15% | 0.1% |
| 39 | San Diego State | 58 | 0.14% | 0.1% |
| 40 | Central Michigan | 89 | 0.13% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Kansas State | 36 | 0.12% | 0.1% |
| 42 | Wake Forest | 39 | 0.11% | 0.1% |
| 43 | North Carolina State | 63 | 0.08% | -0.4% |
| 44 | Western Michigan | 93 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Iowa | 31 | 0.07% | -1.3% |
| 46 | Minnesota | 41 | 0.07% | -1.5% |
| 47 | Auburn | 23 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Coastal Carolina | 66 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Nebraska | 48 | 0.05% | -0.1% |
| 50 | Ball State | 101 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Miami (OH) | 102 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 52 | LSU | 16 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Toledo | 96 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Liberty | 69 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 55 | San Jose State | 84 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Northern Illinois | 107 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Baylor | 33 | 0.01% | -0.2% |
| 58 | West Virginia | 42 | 0.00% | -0.4% |
| 59 | Rutgers | 78 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Nevada | 91 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Kent State | 111 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Illinois | 79 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Eastern Michigan | 112 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Hawaii | 87 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Arkansas | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Colorado State | 94 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Michigan State | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Boston College | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Missouri | 49 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Maryland | 105 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 71 | New Mexico | 118 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Akron | 124 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Bowling Green | 126 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
For all the chaos present in this season, the top four in the Playoff odds are the four best teams. The next three teams are the ones that have the best chances of going undefeated from the two "lesser" power conferences. Then there's Michigan who looks improved but is going to have to 1) beat Wisconsin, 2) beat Ohio State, 3) and beat everyone else. And then there's ND, who looks pretty good, but is basically going to have beat Clemson twice to make the field. So on the top line at least, things are disappointingly non-chaotic thus far.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACC | Clemson | 95.7% | Notre Dame | 73.2% | |
| AMER | Cincinnati | 56.2% | Tulsa | 43.9% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 85.1% | Penn State | 6.5% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 82.3% | Northwestern | 10.7% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma State | 66.1% | Iowa State | 47.9% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 93.4% | Charlotte | 5.0% | |
| CUSAW | UAB | 94.4% | Southern Miss | 2.8% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 44.2% | Ohio | 34.3% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 36.5% | Central Michigan | 20.4% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 62.3% | Nevada | 15.5% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 84.2% | Air Force | 11.2% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 63.9% | Washington | 21.3% | |
| P12S | USC | 57.6% | Utah | 31.2% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 69.6% | Florida | 29.8% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 99.0% | Texas A&M | 0.4% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 74.3% | Coastal Carolina | 22.7% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 86.2% | Arkansas State | 6.9% |
Conference races are slightly goofier. Tulsa! Northwestern!! And conversely the CUSA is straightforward for the first time ever.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| 9 | Penn State | Ohio State | 21.1% | 0.042 |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | Texas | 57.5% | 0.022 |
| 9 | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 10.4% | 0.015 |
| 9 | Alabama | Mississippi State | 96.8% | 0.008 |
| 9 | Clemson | Boston College | 96.7% | 0.008 |
| 9 | Kentucky | Georgia | 13.8% | 0.006 |
| 9 | Air Force | Boise State | 23.1% | 0.003 |
| 9 | Virginia | North Carolina | 27.1% | 0.003 |
| 9 | Rutgers | Indiana | 18.5% | 0.002 |
| 9 | Michigan | Michigan State | 93.0% | 0.002 |
Week 9 is the calm before the storm. Only one game on here is anything resembling a coin flip, and it's unlikely the Playoff race will be upended to any significant degree. Hey look Rutgers is on the list.
