Sunday, August 27, 2023

Abolish Incuriosity

Found a really good example of functional dishonesty that I wanted to briefly remark on:


To summarize, we have someone who does not support abolition quote tweeting another person who does not support abolition sharing an essay from someone who does not appear to support abolition (or at the very least is not very serious about it).  And all this originated from the blog of someone who does not support abolition, whose "contest" in retrospect seems like a less than good faith effort to engage with the movement.  My less generous side would even go so far as to suggest that ginning up outrage about the supposed unseriousness of abolitionists was perhaps the whole point of this exercise.  

My more generous side would like to do a less paranoid reading of the situation, which means we need to assume that no one here is outright lying and/or misrepresenting their perceptions of others' beliefs.  But even if we do this, the problem remains that all the parties involved are still fundamentally wrong about what abolition is.  But because we've ruled out dishonesty as a cause of this wrongness, we need to turn to its far more pernicious cousin, incuriosity.  The key to this diagnosis in my mind is this passage from DeBoer's post:

"To the many of you who answered that Derek Chauvin killed George Floyd before we would have instituted any de-carceral, de-policing reform, meaning that he would not have been eligible to be treated under that system… congratulations, that’s very clever. But it doesn’t help explore these issues, which was the whole point of putting money on the line."

The way DeBoer paints this argument is as something of a "gotcha."  I did not read all of the submissions, so it's entirely possible that some people did respond with some pedantic and reductive bullshit, which would make DeBoer's dismissal of them fair.  But there were others who made a similar argument that highlights the fundamental irrelevance of DeBoer's original inquiry.  I know this because that was me!  Here was my submission, with the most relevant emphasis added: 

"The simple answer is that we live under an oppressive regime which nonetheless has laws and remedies for the crime of homicide, so Chauvin should be charged as such.  The complex answer is that the question is largely irrelevant to abolition, as it is a revolutionary project that does not care about the application of capitalist laws.  And unlike political projects that do not seek to overthrow capitalism (ie. M4A) abolition is not a policy prescription much in the same way a communist revolution is not a policy prescription.  As such, it's foolish to stake one's evaluation of the project on your perception of the quality of the answer to an incidental hypothetical.

The nature of the "radicalism" of abolition is to comprehend the root cause of crime so as to be able to prevent it.  In the specific case of Chauvin, abolition ultimately seeks to indict capitalism for the murder.   Police fundamentally exist to protect private property on behalf of capital, so capitalism is where the buck stops.  Yes, one could counter by saying "why not ban chokeholds" or something like that, but such reforms do not shift the power away from capital in the slightest, leaving the oppressive apparatus of policing and prisons in place, albeit with (perhaps) slightly different tactics.  It follows that we cannot hope to regularly prevent such crimes as this without overthrowing capitalism, hence the revolutionary project of abolition.

I want to be clear that abolition is not a utopian demand.  The abolition of our carceral system does not mean a categorical rejection of carceral solutions to crime, but rather a demand that any potential carceral solutions actually be solutions.  It is abundantly clear that the carceral programs of capitalism overwhelmingly serve to imprison those that threaten capital, whether it be directly or indirectly.  It is also clear that these programs do little to prevent crime, while tacitly endorsing it within the prison walls.  Put simply, abolition is a desire to build a better society by following the path of steadfast opposition to capital that we have come to see as necessary through our earnest and thorough analysis." 

This highlights the fundamental difference between DeBoer's perception of abolition and the reality of abolition.  You cannot seriously propose the abolition of prison without understanding it as a necessary consequence of the abolition of capitalism.  You cannot excise one of the tentpoles of capitalist hegemony without bringing down the whole circus.  More to the point, a world without prisons is world with a completely different political economy, and with it a completely different set of social relations.  While such a world would not be utopian in nature, there simply would not be an analogous scenario to the Floyd murder in need of a hypothetical punishment!  That no one who opposes this seems to understand this or is even able to imagine it seems to be the proximal non-material reason that abolition has yet to reach wide acceptance.  Convincing people of this is understandably difficult, and I do not expect it to happen overnight.  So all I can immediately ask is that if you find yourself in the position of opposing abolition, you at least try to exhibit some curiosity.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

How to Think about YIMBYs Part 3

When I wrote this post last week, I came to the conclusion that the YIMBY label invites more problems than it is worth.  If the primary goal of YIMBYs is to do something good (build housing), then it feels counterproductive to condemn the whole movement because of the questionable motivation of their loudest supporters.  I will confess that while I still think this, at least part of me felt that this was overly generous and perhaps a little naïve.  Regardless, I think a nonjudgmental attitude is one of the best things one can aspire to, so I will avoid war with the person I was a week ago.

At the same time...here is a tweet from yesterday:

As far as policy proposals go, this is pretty anodyne.  It is of course not ideal that houses act as stores of wealth in our political economy, but it's certainly better for people to benefit from this than corporations.  To this end, it's almost certainly a good idea to prevent some of the most rapacious companies in existence from buying up one of the last readily available stores of wealth for the working class.  And yet, many self-described YIMBYs disagree!  With the same exact refrain!









Ignoring that Merkley's tweet neither says nor implies anything about renters, this is such a wildly bad-faith response that it makes me questions my previous conclusion.  Single-family housing in America is a profit center for those who own it.  Wouldn't it be best for actual families to reap than profit than corporations?  Isn't this sort of faux-concern for the dignity of renters overlooking the inherent, material indignity of being beholden to a landlord?  And if you do actually believe an increase in renters will help alleviate the housing crisis, why is your messaging on this so smarmy and unpersuasive?  What really is your goal here?

Sunday, August 20, 2023

CFP Odds - The Final Year

After more than a century of college football crowning champions in various byzantine ways, the sport entered the modern era of sports by starting a four-team playoff in 2014.  The somewhat strange results of the selection committee's first foray into picking four teams led me to believe that their methodology was frighteningly simple.  Simple enough even to be replicated by an amateur modeler such as myself.  So starting the next year, I did just that.  The results have not been perfect, but they've been about close to perfect as I could hope for.  Especially given that all my model accounts for is 1) number of losses, 2) rudimentary strength of schedule, and 3) a small adjustment that implicitly discounts 2-loss teams if the season has had minimal chaos.  Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your desires for a larger playoff), this is the tenth and final year of the four-team playoff era, which means that my model is less than four months from reaching its expiration date.  So let's enjoy one last quarter-trip around the sun together before I uninstall R from my computer for good (that's a joke I am never uninstalling it).



Very little here should surprise you.  The clear top four teams all have the best odds to make the Playoff.  The next dozen or so teams are the next dozen or so teams in the AP poll, and they all have varying levels of outside chances to pull off a special season.  This is "boring" in a way as it's often fun when the computers and the poll voters disagree.  But it's exciting in that this is the deepest set of good to great teams I have seen in some time, and everyone else seems to agree with this.  Should be fun!


Conference Odds


This graphic is slimmed down a bit, as even more conferences have elected to simply pit their two best teams against each other.  Salute to the ACC, CUSA, and Mountain West for making the right decision on this front.  Overall, nothing sticks out to me too much other than a) SMU being the favorite in the American, and b) the Sun Belt East being an absolute grab bag of decent but not exceptional teams.


Weekly Previews

Here's the best part of this, where I tell you what to get excited about in each week of the season.

Week 1 - 0.910 playoff teams lost (ranked 12th of 13)

1. LSU (67% win probability) vs Florida State - 0.038 playoff teams lost

2. Clemson (86%) at Duke - 0.016

3. Florida at Utah (67%) - 0.008

A real wet fart of an opening weekend.  To make matters slightly worst, none of these top three games are on Saturday.  But the silver lining of this is that you can focus your Saturday Night on South Alabama-Tulane instead of having to watch Alabama pants someone in the Georgia Dome.

Week 2 - 0.159 playoff teams lost (ranked 10th)

1. Texas at Alabama (73%) - 0.090

2. Notre Dame (74%) at NC State - 0.015

3. Oregon (60%) at Texas Tech - 0.012

There's not necessarily a ton of Playoff implications here, but there is a ton of fun, weird matchups.  Baylor-Utah!  Wazzu-Sconnie!  Oklahoma-SMU?  Ole Miss at Tulane??!  Kansas State-Troy!!!!  Iga Świątek winning her second straight US Open?  Coco Gauff winning her first?  Let's get weird with it.

Week 3 - 0.819 playoff teams lost (ranked 13th)

1. LSU (78%) at Mississippi State - 0.014

2. South Carolina at Georgia (93%) - 0.012

3. Penn State (78%) at Illinois - 0.010

Look, I picked a good week to go to (tailgate at) an actual game.  Washington goes to Michigan State, but it's on Peacock.  Oklahoma goes to Tulsa?  Whatever, man.

Week 4 - 0.278 playoff teams lost (ranked 4th)

1. Ohio State (75%) at Notre Dame - 0.095

2. Florida State at Clemson (68%) - 0.053

3. Ole Miss at Alabama (86%) - 0.027

Now here is the good stuff.  Plus there's plenty of weird, fun depth, largely featuring the one-year-only iteration of the Big 12 (Oklahoma going to Nippert, UCF going to Manhattan, Texas making one last trip to Waco). 

Week 5 - 0.158 playoff teams lost (ranked 11th)

1. LSU (65%) at Ole Miss - 0.025

2. Georgia (88%) at Auburn - 0.020

3. Alabama (88%) at Mississippi State - 0.020

Yep, the four "worst" weekends all happen in September.  Oh well whatever it's football I'll take it.  Clemson going to Syracuse, ND at Duke, South Alabama-JMU, and Utah making one last trip to Oregon State gives this one enough wacky depth to make it fun.

Week 6 - 0.214 playoff teams lost (ranked 6th)

1. Texas (62%) vs Oklahoma - 0.053

2. Alabama (78%) at Texas A&M - 0.041

3. Michigan (82%) at Minnesota - 0.022

Haven't mentioned Michigan yet because they do not play anybody until travelling to Minneapolis in week 6.  Meanwhile the Tide will be on their third straight opponent with a decent pulse.  Something to keep track of in the jockeying for the top four spots.

Week 7 - 0.173 playoff teams lost (ranked 9th)

1. USC at Notre Dame (52%) - 0.059

2. Oregon (51%) at Washington - 0.020

3. Arkansas at Alabama (91%) - 0.015

A weird week highlighted by a couple of coin flips, plus a few other coin flips lower down the ranks (KSU-TTU, UNC-Miami, OSU-UCLA) that could prove to be pivotal. 

Week 8 - 0.268 playoff teams lost (ranked 5th)

1. Penn State at Ohio State (81%) - 0.079

2. Tennessee at Alabama (79%) - 0.050

3. Utah at USC (66%) - 0.038

A really fun week with some of the biggest games to date.  Yeah, Bama should get revenge on the Vols, but also this game comes after four straight weeks of SEC West seasoning, which could take its toll on the Tide (one can only hope)?  Also Texas goes to Houston in perhaps the funniest game of the weird Big 12...too bad Houston might be pretty listless by this point.

Week 9 - 0.185 playoff teams lost (ranked 8th)

1. Ohio State (84%) at Wisconsin - 0.047

2. Clemson (78%) at NC State - 0.026

3. Oregon at Utah (56%) - 0.025

Weird that there's a random Big Ten-Big 12 matchup in the middle of the season.  Should be fun, regardless.

Week 10 - 0.303 playoff teams lost (ranked 2nd)

1. LSU at Alabama (72%) - 0.091

2. Notre Dame at Clemson (61%) - 0.074

3. Washington at USC (71%) - 0.029

A top-heavy week, but a) the top is very, very good, and b) there's some other fun stuff going, like the last edition of Bedlam.

Week 11 - 0.286 playoff teams lost (ranked 3rd)

1. Michigan (59%) at Penn State - 0.076

2. USC (55%) at Oregon - 0.044

3. Ole Miss at Georgia (86%) - 0.027

Two absolutely huge Big Ten games lead the way in a strong weekend.  What a conference.

Week 12 - 0.209 playoff teams lost (ranked 7th)

1. Georgia (72%) at Tennessee - 0.063

2. North Carolina at Clemson (80%) - 0.030

3. Michigan (86%) at Maryland - 0.017

I don't like the UGA-Vols game taking place this late, but it does save this weekend from being a completely random grab bag of games.  Washington at Oregon State and Texas at Iowa State helps ensure that some of the weirdest corners of college football will be relevant for a week.

Week 13 - 0.340 playoff teams lost (ranked 1st)

1. Ohio State (59%) at Michigan - 0.166 

2. Clemson (77%) at South Carolina - 0.026

3. TCU at Oklahoma (67%) - 0.022

Dropping the sarcasm for a minute, it's too bad that Rivalry Week might be a bit of a dud this year.  Yeah the big one makes it the #1 week in my rankings, but a lot of other matchups are less important at the moment, which is too bad.  Given that we may not see The Civil War, The Apple Cup, and others for a while, I hope all the teams involved have great seasons so that the stakes of this weekend are at an all-time high.  It would make both a fitting send-off to conferences as we know them and a strong argument for the primacy of regional rivalries to the allure of college athletics.

Monday, August 14, 2023

How to Think about YIMBYs Part 2

A year ago, I got back from vacation and immediately wrote this post about something that annoyed me on the internet.  Today, I have just returned from vacation and find myself annoyed by literally the same guy.  Time really is a flat circle.

Anyway, this follow-up doesn't concern the primary angle of that post, the reparative vs paranoid dynamic.  I think what I wrote there still stands and I think I squared the circle better than I gave myself credit for.  Part of this is that I don't think there really is a definitive answer to the question and that we have to live with both thoughts to survive.  But the other part is that further evidence suggests that guy really, genuinely is just a big-time shit-stirrer.

The immediate subject at hand is instead definitions.  In my last post I defined YIMBYs simplistically as "drill, baby, drill" but for houses.  Yes, there are people who self-identify as "YIMBY" who care about and advocate for other aspects of housing and other related issues, but the braying horde of "YIMBYs" on the internet is largely not that.  I know this and thus define the group as such because I've spent time reading their posts and *gasps* interacting with them.  But for an outsider that doesn't waste all of their time on the internet, the most illustrative way of understanding this is probably through comprehending who YIMBYs define their enemy as.  To this end, here's the guy:




There's a neat little trick here, where he defines his enemy (left-NIMBYs) as explicitly oriented on the "left", but then goes on to include groups of people who are either poorly defined on the left-right spectrum or are on the center (or even right) of it.  Take city council liberals.  While most big-city politicians are indeed Democrats and/or may espouse some liberal social values, I know from experience that they almost invariably do the bidding of local real estate developers (a "fun" activity is searching through your local campaign finance data and learning who all the big donors are).  It's pedantic at best and actively disingenuous at worst to classify such parties as "left" (ie. anti-capitalist) when they are in place explicitly to do the bidding of capital.  

But as I said, this is illuminating, specifically towards revealing what YIMBY politics is.  Our acquaintance doesn't define his enemies by any fundamental material or ideological disagreement.  After all, if he did, it's unlikely that he would name such a disparate group of people.  Rather, his enemies are identified seemingly solely by their opposition to the specific policy of maximal/unlimited development, regardless of whether such objections are rooted in selfish interests of landowners, or concern for the greater good.  Which in turns reveals that he doesn't seem to espouse any political commitments outside of that narrow interest, making my narrow stereotype of "YIMBYs" largely accurate.

And yet this all feels incomplete.  Which brings me back to the original point of my previous post (twist ending!): Perhaps broad categories of people such as YIMBYs present opportunities for both paranoid and reparative analysis.  Perhaps there are both bad-faith actors who are fundamentally in the pocket of developers and well-meaning allies who (correctly) understand that we need to build more housing.  And perhaps, defining such a broad categorization of people primarily based on the inclinations of the former group helps to breed unnecessary suspicion of the latter group.  And going one step further, perhaps this is exactly what wealthy developers want and they've "created" this band of "YIMBYs" to further this exact goal!  By this logic, both paranoid and reparative readings of the situation lead me to reject the simplistic YIMBY label as I cannot find a particularly good case for its use.  More updates on this matter to come.