Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 8

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Ohio State	1	83.64%	7.9%
2	Clemson	3	74.81%	5.4%
3	Oklahoma	4	48.63%	5.6%
4	LSU	5	47.82%	12.1%
5	Penn State	6	47.75%	9.4%
6	Alabama	2	45.16%	-13.7%
7	Notre Dame	11	12.14%	0.7%
8	Oregon	10	11.70%	-0.3%
9	Auburn	9	7.07%	0.7%
10	Florida	12	6.77%	2.7%
11	Georgia	7	4.87%	0.0%
12	Baylor	19	3.13%	2.0%
13	Wisconsin	8	2.66%	-32.5%
14	Utah	13	2.21%	0.9%
15	Minnesota	25	1.00%	0.2%
16	Wake Forest	46	0.21%	0.0%
17	Michigan	15	0.15%	-0.6%
18	Iowa State	16	0.05%	0.0%
19	Appalachian State	39	0.04%	0.0%
20	Pitt	49	0.04%	0.0%
21	SMU	37	0.03%	0.0%
22	Virginia	32	0.03%	0.0%
23	Texas	22	0.03%	-0.1%
24	Arizona State	36	0.02%	-0.1%
25	Iowa	21	0.02%	0.0%
26	Indiana	34	0.01%	0.0%
27	Kansas State	40	0.00%	0.0%
28	Virginia Tech	71	0.00%	0.0%

1.  You would think Georgia's loss last week and Wisconsin's this week would be enough to shake things up.  But one big upset a week is roughly par for the course in college football, so the Playoff odds are still quite top-heavy.  Alabama falls to their lowest spot in years largely because 1) their computer ratings fell off ever so slightly, and 2) all the other contenders have slightly easier paths to Playoff-worthy seasons.  A weak SOS (projected at .513 without an SEC title game appearance) means that an 11-1 Crimson Tide might very well be on the outside looking in.  Don't say you weren't warned.

2.  A good set of eliminations this week includes Washington, California, Oklahoma State, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina State, TCU, Arizona, and Boise State.  Washington is the first of the legitimate preseason Playoff contenders to take a third loss.  On the other end of the ledger, it's mighty impressive that Louisville made it this long before appearing here.  I guess they figured out how to get the Petrino out of their program quickly.

3.  Clemson had the highest odds to win their division all season until today, as Oregon's dominance of the Pac 12 North takes center stage.  Basically the only scenarios that don't have the Ducks winning involve multiple upsets and an unexpected run by Wazzu (unlikely) or Oregon State (reeeally unlikely).  In other news, Minnesota has crept all the way up to a 1 in 3 shot of making the Big Ten title game.  And Ball State is your new division favorite that came out of nowhere...destroying previous favorite Toledo will do that for you.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	99.3%		Wake Forest	0.7%
ACCC	Virginia	66.8%		Pitt	14.6%
AMEE	Cincinnati	86.1%		Central Florida	11.1%
AMEW	SMU	35.8%		Memphis	32.7%
B10E	Ohio State	81.6%		Penn State	18.1%
B10W	Wisconsin	57.7%		Minnesota	32.3%
B12	Oklahoma	94.1%		Baylor	70.7%
CUSAE	Western Kentucky	42.8%		Florida Atlantic	27.7%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	57.0%		North Texas	16.4%
MACE	Ohio	48.2%		Miami (OH)	38.0%
MACW	Ball State	57.8%		Western Michigan	19.6%
MWCW	San Diego State	54.4%		Fresno State	34.7%
MWCM	Boise State	71.4%		Utah State	18.8%
P12N	Oregon	99.7%		Washington State	0.2%
P12S	Utah	55.3%		USC	42.2%
SECE	Georgia	53.0%		Florida	46.6%
SECW	Alabama	66.4%		LSU	27.6%
SUNE	Appalachian State	93.5%		Georgia State	4.1%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	92.2%		Louisiana-Monroe	3.7%

Week 9 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
LSU	Auburn	66.6%	0.077
Ohio State	Wisconsin	82.5%	0.060
Michigan State	Penn State	26.6%	0.042
Michigan	Notre Dame	45.8%	0.029
Kansas State	Oklahoma	11.0%	0.018
Oregon	Washington State	83.7%	0.010
Clemson	Boston College	97.3%	0.007
Alabama	Arkansas	98.9%	0.002
Utah	California	88.9%	0.001
Minnesota	Maryland	80.9%	0.001

Week 9 is not the deepest week, but the big games are fantastic.  All of the top five games feature a contender getting a major test on the road, some of them against other contenders.  We also have a couple of interesting undercards in the Big 12 with Iowa State-Oklahoma State and Texas-TCU.  Not bad.