| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 68.85% | -11.8% |
| 2 | Clemson | 5 | 68.07% | -4.3% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 2 | 54.31% | 20.0% |
| 4 | Georgia | 3 | 42.64% | -0.2% |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 9 | 40.18% | 14.7% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 6 | 29.33% | 2.2% |
| 7 | Washington | 7 | 19.13% | 0.7% |
| 8 | Penn State | 4 | 17.46% | -19.0% |
| 9 | North Carolina State | 25 | 10.34% | 5.0% |
| 10 | LSU | 12 | 9.77% | 4.1% |
| 11 | West Virginia | 14 | 8.95% | 3.3% |
| 12 | Kentucky | 24 | 6.20% | 3.8% |
| 13 | Michigan | 8 | 5.07% | -0.4% |
| 14 | Stanford | 19 | 4.07% | -14.0% |
| 15 | Miami (FL) | 13 | 3.87% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Florida | 15 | 3.11% | 2.5% |
| 17 | Oklahoma State | 16 | 1.77% | 0.1% |
| 18 | Auburn | 11 | 1.39% | -0.2% |
| 19 | Virginia Tech | 27 | 0.63% | 0.5% |
| 20 | Syracuse | 41 | 0.60% | -0.1% |
| 21 | Washington State | 33 | 0.57% | 0.2% |
| 22 | Iowa | 23 | 0.56% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Texas | 22 | 0.43% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Duke | 37 | 0.41% | -3.3% |
| 25 | Michigan State | 21 | 0.35% | -0.3% |
| 26 | Wisconsin | 10 | 0.34% | -0.3% |
| 27 | Texas A&M | 18 | 0.34% | -0.4% |
| 28 | Missouri | 30 | 0.29% | -0.1% |
| 29 | Central Florida | 28 | 0.27% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Oregon | 35 | 0.15% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Boston College | 39 | 0.14% | 0.0% |
| 32 | South Carolina | 32 | 0.09% | -1.4% |
| 33 | Texas Tech | 26 | 0.06% | -0.9% |
| 34 | Colorado | 48 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Mississippi State | 17 | 0.05% | -1.0% |
| 36 | USC | 36 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 37 | California | 56 | 0.02% | -0.3% |
| 38 | Cincinnati | 54 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 39 | TCU | 34 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Utah | 38 | 0.02% | -0.1% |
| 41 | Maryland | 49 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 42 | South Florida | 57 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Indiana | 55 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Minnesota | 58 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Arizona State | 40 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Virginia | 53 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Baylor | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Vanderbilt | 64 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 62 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Illinois | 95 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Florida State | 59 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. This is one of the most straightforward updates possible. The two biggest gainers and losers are the winners and losers of the weekend's two biggest games. Stanford's drop means that the previously ensconced "Top Nine" becomes a "Top Eight." A number of other victories in the undercard games means that some of the "lesser" undefeated teams creep up towards that group. And one-loss teams like Florida, Miami, and Michigan continue to sneak around the periphery. This has still been a relatively by-the-numbers season, but chaos isn't that far away from becoming a reality.
2. Wave goodbye to Iowa State, Arizona, Louisville, Kansas State, Pitt, Tennessee, Kansas, Northwestern, North Carolina, North Texas, and Buffalo. None of these teams were contenders at any point
3. The conference Playoff grid remains mostly the same. Notre Dame's win pulls it even with the Big 12 as a whole. And the CUSA and MAC get officially eliminated as their last undefeated teams both lost. But the main story remains waiting to see if the SEC is going to get 1 or 2 in the Playoff.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.327 |
| ACC | 0.841 |
| B10 | 0.781 |
| B12 | 0.405 |
| IND | 0.402 |
| P12 | 0.241 |
| AMER | 0.003 |
4. Nothing shocking in the conference title grid. Virginia Tech was left for dead after their loss to ODU, but they now have the second best chance of winning the Coastal. Cincinnati continues its improvement, creeping ahead of USF in the American. And Louisiana Tech's win in Denton makes them the favorite in the CUSA.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 84.0% | North Carolina State | 12.0% | |
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 51.3% | Virginia Tech | 43.7% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 62.2% | Cincinnati | 18.5% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 62.4% | Tulane | 15.2% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 75.7% | Michigan | 15.6% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 77.9% | Iowa | 11.1% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 77.6% | West Virginia | 50.8% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 45.3% | Florida International | 36.9% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 52.3% | North Texas | 28.4% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 46.6% | Ohio | 27.3% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 38.9% | Western Michigan | 31.8% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 80.7% | San Diego State | 12.4% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 73.6% | Utah State | 26.1% | |
| P12N | Washington | 73.1% | Stanford | 20.1% | |
| P12S | USC | 61.7% | Arizona State | 14.0% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 73.3% | Kentucky | 18.3% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 92.1% | LSU | 6.3% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 79.3% | Troy | 11.9% | |
| SUNW | Arkansas State | 79.5% | Louisiana-Lafayette | 7.9% |
Week 6 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Virginia Tech | Notre Dame | 33.9% | 0.048 |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 25.1% | 0.026 |
| Florida | LSU | 53.4% | 0.025 |
| Wake Forest | Clemson | 9.2% | 0.021 |
| Texas A&M | Kentucky | 61.1% | 0.014 |
| North Carolina State | Boston College | 68.1% | 0.011 |
| Ohio State | Indiana | 95.6% | 0.008 |
| Stanford | Utah | 68.7% | 0.006 |
| Georgia | Vanderbilt | 95.6% | 0.006 |
| UCLA | Washington | 6.2% | 0.006 |
A lackluster week still features a few games of note. The Hokies' probably don't have 1 in 3 odds of winning with Josh Jackson out, but the Irish's first trip to Blacksburg will still be a test. LSU begins an impossible gauntlet that will eventually include visits from Alabama and Georgia. And NC State tries to continue their post-2017-hype season against post-a couple weeks ago-hype BC. And we have a conference game between teams that haven't played since 1953.
