If you're already aware of the wide range of ideology within college football punditry, then the last six months have probably not surprised you. A sport that's proud to profit off the labor of unpaid athletes has enlisted plenty of cheerleaders happy to carry water for those in charge. And carry water they have, to the point of basically denying that there is even a pandemic happening in the first place. On the less buffoonish side of the spectrum, there have been two lines of thought. One is that there's no way a season will work and everything will be shut down post haste. The other (the view I've held) is that everyone is too addicted to money to not push ahead full steam, even if y'know, people die. As it turns out the ultimate answer was right in the middle.
What this means is we now have a weird Frankenstein of a season on our hands. I'm not particularly enthused about it, and considered taking a year off from the spreadsheets. But the one thing that convinced me to push through is the high probability of chaos. There will never be a better chance to get a 2-loss team or a Group of Five team into the Playoff. Maybe there will even be a three-loss team in contention that will completely destroy my model. So push on we must.
The Model
In spite of the weirdness of this season, my model is the same as previous years. If this year breaks it, no biggie. Here is my most recent primer if you care about such things. I have eliminated Air Force and their two-game schedule, and Southern Miss already lost so they're out as well.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob |
| 1 | Clemson | 2 | 87.35% |
| 2 | Alabama | 1 | 71.15% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 4 | 53.53% |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 9 | 24.79% |
| 5 | Georgia | 3 | 24.10% |
| 6 | Texas | 8 | 23.13% |
| 7 | Auburn | 5 | 19.40% |
| 8 | Florida | 6 | 17.23% |
| 9 | LSU | 7 | 14.68% |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | 12 | 9.92% |
| 11 | Louisville | 16 | 7.74% |
| 12 | Texas A&M | 10 | 7.03% |
| 13 | North Carolina | 18 | 6.07% |
| 14 | Central Florida | 11 | 5.46% |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 17 | 4.83% |
| 16 | TCU | 13 | 4.64% |
| 17 | Iowa State | 14 | 4.29% |
| 18 | Florida State | 15 | 4.24% |
| 19 | Appalachian State | 26 | 2.97% |
| 20 | Baylor | 20 | 1.92% |
| 21 | BYU | 39 | 1.20% |
| 22 | Miami (FL) | 28 | 0.95% |
| 23 | Memphis | 22 | 0.63% |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 25 | 0.32% |
| 25 | Marshall | 52 | 0.28% |
| 26 | Kentucky | 19 | 0.28% |
| 27 | Kansas State | 27 | 0.26% |
| 28 | Pitt | 31 | 0.22% |
| 29 | Tennessee | 21 | 0.18% |
| 30 | Texas Tech | 29 | 0.17% |
| 31 | Virginia | 36 | 0.15% |
| 32 | Florida Atlantic | 49 | 0.14% |
| 33 | West Virginia | 33 | 0.10% |
| 34 | South Carolina | 23 | 0.10% |
| 35 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 38 | 0.09% |
| 36 | Duke | 41 | 0.09% |
| 37 | Ole Miss | 24 | 0.08% |
| 38 | North Carolina State | 44 | 0.08% |
| 39 | UAB | 51 | 0.05% |
| 40 | Georgia Tech | 35 | 0.04% |
| 41 | Boston College | 42 | 0.02% |
| 42 | Wake Forest | 43 | 0.02% |
| 43 | Georgia Southern | 54 | 0.02% |
| 44 | Western Kentucky | 50 | 0.02% |
| 45 | Navy | 37 | 0.01% |
| 46 | Houston | 34 | 0.01% |
| 47 | Army | 57 | 0.01% |
| 48 | Louisiana Tech | 58 | 0.01% |
| 49 | Mississippi State | 32 | 0.00% |
| 50 | Troy | 59 | 0.00% |
| 51 | Rice | 73 | 0.00% |
| 52 | Florida International | 70 | 0.00% |
| 53 | Coastal Carolina | 63 | 0.00% |
| 54 | North Texas | 68 | 0.00% |
| 55 | Syracuse | 55 | 0.00% |
| 56 | SMU | 40 | 0.00% |
| 57 | Arkansas | 45 | 0.00% |
| 58 | South Florida | 56 | 0.00% |
| 59 | Vanderbilt | 61 | 0.00% |
| 60 | Kansas | 64 | 0.00% |
| 61 | Tulsa | 48 | 0.00% |
| 62 | Tulane | 46 | 0.00% |
| 63 | Missouri | 30 | 0.00% |
| 64 | East Carolina | 65 | 0.00% |
| 65 | Georgia State | 66 | 0.00% |
| 66 | Arkansas State | 60 | 0.00% |
| 67 | South Alabama | 71 | 0.00% |
| 68 | Temple | 53 | 0.00% |
| 69 | Louisiana-Monroe | 74 | 0.00% |
| 70 | UTSA | 75 | 0.00% |
| 71 | Middle Tennessee | 72 | 0.00% |
| 72 | Texas State | 76 | 0.00% |
| 73 | UTEP | 77 | 0.00% |
| 74 | Charlotte | 69 | 0.00% |
| 75 | Liberty | 67 | 0.00% |
I normally spend some time in this post going through the best games of every week, but the schedule isn't that deep and all of the September weekends are butt. So let's just take a look at the best games of the year. Pretty good conference matchup at the top if you ask me.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Clemson | 25.6% | 0.136 |
| 7 | Alabama | Georgia | 74.2% | 0.121 |
| 6 | Texas | Oklahoma | 39.5% | 0.118 |
| 11 | LSU | Alabama | 29.4% | 0.105 |
| 13 | Alabama | Auburn | 79.4% | 0.101 |
| 5 | Georgia | Auburn | 64.0% | 0.071 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | 75.5% | 0.069 |
| 10 | Georgia | Florida | 58.7% | 0.067 |
| 8 | TCU | Oklahoma | 28.5% | 0.062 |
| 5 | Iowa State | Oklahoma | 27.7% | 0.060 |
I also typically break down all the conference races, but once again I cannot bring myself to care. But the ACC probabilities are pretty funny so here are those.
