Thursday, April 14, 2016

The Best Players of the Mike Brey Era

This is an idea I've had rolling around in my head for a bit, and since we've all already forgotten about college hoops, let's do it.  As you know, I am an alumnus of Notre Dame.  I am also a fierce contrarian, so my favorite ND sport isn't one of the most popular ones (football and women's basketball), but instead the long-suffering men's basketball team.  Long-suffering is of course, a relative term, as the team has been fortunate enough to have one moderately successful coach for the entirety of my fanhood: Mike Brey.  Now that the Brey era stretches for the equivalent of four undergrad degrees I thought it would be fun to answer a very difficult question.  Namely, which players are the best players of the Brey era?

How did I answer this?  Well, I made it more complicated than I probably needed to.  First, I journeyed over to CBB Reference, and pulled the win shares for each player-season in the 16 years in question.  You may notice I tend to lean towards KenPom numbers in most analyses, but I went with boring old win shares for a couple of reasons.  One, while KenPom is great, he doesn't really have a wins metric.  Since I want to use a counting stat rather than a rate stat, win shares it is.  Second, most other data sources don't go back to the start of the Brey era (2001), so I needed something that would have all the data necessary.  Once I had all of this data, I limited my consideration set to only the players that had at least one season with greater than 1 win share.  This threshold still allowed for a few relatively insignificant players to make the cut, but it seemed like the best cutoff I could come up with.

You may think all I needed to do from here was to add up the total win shares for each player, and then rank them by that total.  While this would be fine for all four-year players (and is indeed what I did for such players), there are many other cases.  Whether it be players who transferred in, left early, started before Brey, or haven't finished yet, it felt unfair to dock them in this ranking just for those reasons.  Thus, I used the matched pairs method to determine the typical improvement between seasons for each possible interval (Freshman to Sophomore, Sophomore to Junior, and Junior to Senior), and then applied those hypothetical improvements.  To do this, I filtered my consideration set for only players that had played in both of the seasons for a given comparison, and then found the median difference between the seasons (I used median instead of mean because the few really great players made this a bit of a skewed distribution).  This gave me a baseline improvement of 1.2, 0.5, and 0.3 win shares for the three intervals, in order*.  This means that Matt Ryan (with 1.6 win shares this season) gets credit for 2.8, 3.3, and 3.6 win shares in the next three hypothetical seasons.  He may indeed be better or worse than that, but given Mike Brey's history with player development, these feel like reasonable guesses.

*I made a few exceptions, which I will detail in the write-ups for each player

With all that out of the way, let's divide the best players of the Brey era into "teams"

Eighth Team All-Brey: Gross

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
36 Harold Swanagan 2001-02 -0.3 0.9 1.3 3.3 5.2
37 Luke Zeller 2006-09 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 4.9
38 Garrick Sherman 2013-14 -0.2 1.0 1.4 1.9 4.1
39 Rick Cornett 2003-06 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 3.7
40 Tom Knight 2011-14 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.9 3.6
41 Jonathan Peoples 2007-10 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 3.3
42 Tom Timmermans 2001-04 -0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.4

There's no way around it: This group would make a pretty bad basketball team.  Tom Timmermans exemplified the Six Sigma quality of nicknameification, which still didn't make him particularly good.  Knight and Sherman had their bright moments, but will mostly be remembered for being the front line of the worst Notre Dame team under Brey.  Luke Zeller ended up being the worst Zeller, and never really was anything other than "that guy who occasionally got hot from three."  Ricky C is probably the only player who's underrated here, but that's largely because he couldn't get playing time, which is a sign that perhaps he worked best in short bursts.

Seventh Team All-Brey: That got better quickly

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
31 Russell Carter 2004-07 0.0 0.9 3.1 4.1 8.1
32 Scott Martin 2011-13 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.9 7.8
33 Zach Hillesland 2006-09 0.1 2.9 2.5 1.7 7.2
34 Alex Dragicevich 2011-12 0.1 1.7 2.1 2.4 6.3
35 Torrian Jones 2001-04 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 5.6

Russell Carter and Scott Martin never quite achieved greatness (it doesn't help that they went a combined 1-4 in the tournament), but they feel a tad underrated down in the thirties.  Dragicevich on the other hand seems overrated, likely because the adjusted figures for his non-existant Junior and Senior seasons suggest a reality that would not have come to pass.  Hillesland never made the second leap that would have made him a star, but he still carved out a nice career as a do-everything forward.

Sixth Team All-Brey: I can't tell if this team would be good or not

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
26 Tory Jackson 2007-10 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.9 9.8
27 Ryan Ayers 2006-09 0.0 1.1 3.1 4.6 8.8
28 V.J. Beachem 2014-16 0.1 1.6 3.4 3.7 8.8
29 Tyrone Nash 2008-11 0.1 1.4 2.8 4.0 8.3
30 Jordan Cornette 2002-05 1.2 2.5 2.7 1.8 8.2

I like the two instances of back-to-back players feeling like near-clones of one another.  Like Ryan Ayers, VJ Beachem made a leap in his Junior year by playing smart basketball and draining a lot of threes.  And Nash and Cornette were both solid post players while never quite getting to that next level (Cornette is also a solid follow on Twitter dot com).  But of all players on this list, Tory Jackson is probably the most incomparable.  His quickness and deft passing made him a natural in the first iteration of "the burn."  And his 6% offensive rebounding rate in his Sophomore season was patently ridiculous given that he was a 5'10" point guard.

Fifth Team All-Brey: The old and the new

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
21 Matt Ryan 2016 1.6 2.8 3.2 3.5 11.1
22 Zach Auguste 2013-16 0.8 1.2 4.8 4.2 11.0
23 Martin Ingelsby 2001 1.5 2.7 3.1 3.4 10.7
24 Dan Miller 2001 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.3 10.3
25 Steve Vasturia 2014-16 0.9 4.0 2.4 2.7 10.0

Here we have three members of this year's Elite Eight squad and two guys I don't know at all.  This system probably underrates Vasturia a tad, because he's likely to bounce back a bit more last year than he's getting credit for.  Auguste doesn't get enough credit for his versatility and his gradual improvement in avoiding foul trouble.  Matt Ryan's solid Freshman campaign suggests he'll be a memorable player should he make the leap, as Brey's players are wont to do.

Fourth Team All-Brey: A team of underrated players

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
16 David Graves 2001-02 1.9 3.1 3.5 4.5 13.0
17 Torin Francis 2003-06 4.0 3.3 2.6 2.9 12.8
18 Colin Falls 2004-07 1.4 3.6 2.9 4.4 12.3
19 Carleton Scott 2009-11 0.8 2.1 4.2 4.5 11.6
20 Kyle McAlarney 2006-09 2.0 1.5 4.0 4.1 11.6

There are a variety of reasons why each of these players could easily be higher on this list.  McAlarney missed most of a season due to the marijuana suspension.  Carleton Scott left a year early for the pro dream that never came (although I did see him dunk in an NBDL game during the half of the ND-Alabama game, so there's that).  Colin Falls is probably accurately rated per win shares, but wasn't appreciated in his time, as he was a bit ahead of the three point revolution.*  Torin Francis never really got better, but that's fine because he started out really good.

*Falls "lived" in my dorm, so I'd see him around occasionally.  One time he was in front of me on the stairs and tripped going around a turn.  He said "you didn't see that."  But I totally did.

Third Team All-Brey: Maybe my favorite team

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
11 Chris Quinn 2003-06 1.8 4.0 3.7 4.2 13.7
12 Jack Cooley 2010-13 0.3 1.8 5.6 6.0 13.7
13 Tim Abromaitis 2008-12 0.0 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4
14 Rob Kurz 2005-08 0.1 2.1 6.0 5.2 13.4
15 Eric Atkins 2011-14 2.2 3.3 4.3 3.2 13.0

Sure, the first team is the best, but this collection has enough of my favorite players that I would almost take them instead.  Eric Atkins deserved better than having to preside over the 2014 team, but he was a key part of the team's success in previous years.  Rob Kurz is the ultimate underrated stud, who actually good enough to make the NBA, albeit briefly.  Tim Abromaitis burned brightly for two years, and then lost his final season to a combination of suspension and injury (I gave him half of his adjusted number for his Senior year - it didn't seem fair to give him nothing).  Jack Cooley was awesome and had the best two-year stretch of any Brey player, per win shares.  If only he'd figured out conditioning earlier in his career.  And Chris Quinn did his damndest to make the miserable 2006 season worthwhile, which ultimately proved to be a Sisyphean effort.

Second Team All-Brey: This would be a weird team

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
6 Bonzie Colson 2015-16 2.3 4.2 4.6 4.9 16.0
7 Matt Carroll 2001-03 2.7 3.9 4.2 5.0 15.8
8 Demetrius Jackson 2014-16 1.2 5.5 4.4 4.715.8
9 Ryan Humphrey 2001-02 2.3 3.5 3.9 5.9 15.6
10 Chris Thomas 2002-05 4.5 4.3 3.6 2.7 15.1

When I first stepped on campus, Chris Thomas was a stud.  His ~9 win shares in his first two seasons is actually the best figure on this list.  But then I clearly cursed him, and he finished his career as a merely good player on two non-tournament teams.  Demetrius is the most agile, quick, and smooth player in perhaps the entire history of Notre Dame Basketball, and he did a good enough job of jump shooting and passing to be a great all around player.  Bonzie Colson may seem overrated, but every player with as many win shares in his first two seasons (save Torin Francis) is in the top ten.  Consider me intrigued to see what comes next for him.

First Team All-Brey: The predictable top

Rank Player Years Adj FR Adj SO Adj JR Adj SR Total
1 Luke Harangody 2007-10 2.9 5.5 5.9 5.1 19.4
2 Troy Murphy 2001 3.6 4.8 5.2 5.5 19.1
3 Jerian Grant 2011-15 4.5 3.9 2.6 7.7 18.7
4 Ben Hansbrough 2010-11 2.8 4.0 4.4 6.4 17.6
5 Pat Connaughton 2012-15 2.5 3.7 4.5 5.4 16.1

If I asked you to name the best players of the Brey era, you might come up with this exact five.  Connaughton went from a solid do-everything grinder to one of the most beautiful all-around players during his four years.  Hansbrough won Big East player of the year and led the team to its highest tournament under Brey.  Jerian Grant had the best individual season for an Irish player in at least 25 years, and fell one bucket short of a Final Four.  Troy Murphy played before my time, but his lengthy pro career indicates just how good he was.  And finally, we've got Harangody.  You could argue he took a few too many shots, but there's amazing value in being a reasonably efficient workhorse.  He was one of the best rebounders in Irish history as well.  My fully subjective list would probably put Grant on top (if only for the Louisville game), but seeing Harangody on top makes a lot of sense.