With the college football season just slightly past the halfway point, it's time to discuss some of the storylines flying a bit under the radar.
Florida State is more likely to lose than not
Following the Noles' controversial win over the Irish, the common theme running through the college football media is that Florida State has passed its toughest test, and will ride out the rest of its schedule easily. However, much like when we were all worried about the top four teams all winning out in 2012, this seems like a bit of an overestimation of the superiority of the top teams. While FSU does appear to have the best chance of winning out, it should be noted that ESPN's odds of this happening are less than one in three.
Why this difference between popular opinion and reality? For one, Florida State hasn't been able to live up to the standard of last year's team, ranking 10th in F/+ and going just 1-6 against the spread. Their 3-0 record in one score games* suggests that they've been a touch lucky to still be undefeated.
*On one hand, those three games came against two great teams (Clemson and ND), and one decent team (Oklahoma State with JW Walsh healthy). On the other hand, none of them were road games.
The other factor is that their remaining schedule is surprisingly decent. While the ACC rightfully gets maligned compared with other power conferences, Florida State's remaining conference opponents represent the better part of the conference. Road games against Louisville (15th in F/+) and Miami (26th and climbing after a big Thursday night win) represent major tests, while BC (32nd) and Virginia (30th) shouldn't be taken lightly themselves. While F/+ is a bit of an outlier in Massey's ratings compilation, the composite ratings still place FSU below the SEC West stronghold, and all five of the Noles' remaining opponents make the top 50. There is certainly a decent chance that Florida State wins its second straight title with another remarkable undefeated season, but there is a far better chance that that does not happen. You've been warned.
Auburn as a test case
As it is the first year of the playoff, there has been unending speculation concerning exactly what items will be discussed, what criteria will be most heavily weighted, and what the committee will do in certain situations. The chatter from committee members concerning simple heuristics like conference championships and schedule intent has lessened my faith in them. All that said, if the committee makes the correct choice with one potentially very interesting team, then it will restore much of my trust. That team is the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn currently finds itself positioned in the top four of the aforementioned Massey composite (#4), and is also in that same range in the metrics I most commonly use (3rd in Sagarin, 5th in F/+). Based on how they've played thus far, they are clearly in the running to be one of the four best teams.
Unfortunately for them, their November is going to be one of the most difficult months for any team in college football history. Having already suffered a road loss to the current #1 team (Mississippi State), Auburn must still travel to top ten teams Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama. Even though Auburn is a great team, this insane road schedule makes it quite unlikely they will be playing for a conference championship. It does not, however, make it unlikely that they will finish as a top four quality team.
Consider the following possibility: Let's say Auburn loses next week at Ole Miss (thus eliminating a realistic chance at a league crown), and then goes to town on the rest of their schedule. This scenario would put Auburn at 10-2, with a road record of 3-2 against 5 teams currently ranked in the top 11 of the AP rankings. Additionally, decisive wins over Bama and Georgia would likely mean that their computer numbers (which in theory represent the true quality of a team) would actually go up, placing them soundly in the top four.
If all this goes to plan,* I am all too prepared for the committee to overlook the Tigers in favor of a less-qualified conference champion. I've heard the argument many times, most recently from The Solid Verbal, from which I paraphrase: Every team has a chance to win their division or conference and thus if they can't do that, they probably shouldn't be considered for the playoff. The fundamental problem with this is that not every team gets the same chance to win their division. While Ole Miss gets all of their most difficult opponents at home (and misses out on having to play Georgia), Auburn will have had to play the four best SEC teams not named Auburn, all on the road. Even for a team as good as the Tigers, we shouldn't expect anything better than a 2-2 record from that set of games. When and if the Rebels clinch the division title, we won't be able to say they didn't earn it, but we can definitely say that they had a bit of an easier road.** While I have my doubts about the committee (see below), I hope they are able to appreciate a unique case like the version of the 2014 Auburn Tigers presented here.
*And if it doesn't, there will probably be another SEC West team with a similar, if less extreme case.
**If you are a top-five caliber team, you have a better chance of a successful season (going 12-0 or 11-1) playing a bunch of somewhat difficult games (road games against average teams, home games against better teams) than you do with a boom or bust schedule like Auburn's. That's why some sort of degree of difficulty metric would have use in a situation like this. Unfortunately...well, just read the next section.
Stats and the committee
If you follow any of the most prominent college football writers, then you've likely heard that the playoff committee recently held a mock selection exercise, much like the NCAA does yearly for the basketball tournament. As a fan, the concept of openness and transparency is much appreciated, but it also shines a light on some of the troublesome areas to team evaluation. Most notably, it appears that there is no firm guidance on determining strength of schedule, nor is the committee allowed to use margin of victory or any outside statistics.
Obviously, this is troubling. We live in an era where the number of people spending their free time analyzing and dissecting the game is orders of magnitude greater than at any time in the past. Conducting perhaps the most exciting development in the sport with minimal, if any, influence from that portion of the devoted is unwise and quite frankly insulting.
What's worse is that the more you think about this, the more you realize how problematic the whole idea of not discussing outside statistics is. Even if discussion of these metrics won't be allowed in the room, committee members that have done their work will have almost certainly consulted some sort of outside numbers to learn more about teams. For example, Barry Alvarez has said that he is working with a statistician at Wisconsin. This will no doubt influence his perception of which teams are best, which will most likely factor into his contribution towards the committee's discussion. While I admire his commitment to learning as much as he can, I also don't necessarily trust his numerical-related conclusions without examining them. And if the committee isn't allowed to discuss outside stats, then that won't happen. This leaves us with a set of statistics provided to the committee that isn't particularly great, the inability of the best minds to influence the discussion, and the unfettered ability of unproven and unchallenged stats to influence the proceedings of the committee. While the "true" top four* and the committee's top four will likely overlap (perhaps a great deal), I am still a little worried about the process to which we've trusted our favorite sport.**
*Sure, any halfway stat-literate person would say that a 12-13 game schedule provides no way for us to determine a definitive top four, but we can at least weed out enough teams to make a pretty good guess.
**Still better than the later versions of the BCS "formula," probably.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Thursday, October 2, 2014
College Football 2014: Getting Excited About the Future
The first month of the 2014 college football season was an above average September. Even though a couple of Saturdays looked like duds on the surface, there were fantastic matchups and plenty of drama every single weekend. Due to a decent slate of non-conference matchups and a few timely upsets, we already find ourselves with just 17 undefeated teams heading into October. Since two-thirds of those teams reside in the three best conferences, we are bound to see some paring down of that list in the very near future, which should make the committee's inaugural selection process a very interesting one. Add in the great starts by Notre Dame and Nebraska, and my personal outlook for the remainder of the 2014 season is quite strong.
Thus, instead of spending a bunch of time talking about what has happened thus far, I'd rather talk about the rest of the season to come. Since humans love nothing more than anticipating awesome things, this only makes sense. With the hilarious strength of the SEC West, the depth of the Pac 12, the surprisingly large group of contenders in the Big 12, and Florida State seemingly needing to inject drama into every game they play, there is so much to look forward to. To help both you and me do that, here is a countdown of the best remaining weekends in the season (I am excluding the final weekend of the season, as it's now a bit of a hollow shell, with almost every conference playing a championship game. It's a great weekend, no doubt, but it's a bit of an odd one). When evaluating these weekends, I am looking to both quality and depth, and then using my relative interest in the teams involved to break ties (for example, Baylor's prolific passing and their up-and-coming nature is a little more interesting to me than say, LSU's plodding offense).
#9 October 25th
If you have some sort of fall project that needs to get done, or want to take a weekend trip somewhere, or just want to see how long a human can sleep, this is probably the weekend to do it. The last weekend in October lacks both depth and high-end quality, while every other weekend has at least one of the two. Part of this stems from many of the top teams having byes (for example, Big 12 favorites Oklahoma and Baylor both take the week off). The rest of it stems from the matchups just not being all that good. When the action on Saturday is almost surpassed in excitement by the Friday games (Oregon goes to a feisty Cal, a likely undefeated BYU travels to Boise), it's not a good sign.
Since the SEC is the best conference by a fair margin this year, a big determinant of the awesomeness of a weekend depends on what they have scheduled. With Ole Miss-LSU, Alabama-Tennessee, and South Carolina-Auburn as the only games of note, this is a particularly weak slate of games, at least when compared to other weeks. Of course, other conferences don't really help out much, either. USC traveling to Utah could be a fun game if the Utes can avoid further bad losses. West Virginia-Oklahoma State and Maryland-Wisconsin have some promise, but it's tough to get too fired up about either of those. The ACC Coastal has some games that could help decide the division, but when you're on a 4-4 watch, there's only so much excitement that one can generate.
#8 November 22nd
The weekend before Thanksgiving is often a bit of a wasteland, with a bunch of SEC and ACC teams taking it easy before their rivalry games. Arkansas-Ole Miss and Missouri-Tennssee comprise the only SEC games of note, so there's not much there. That said, there are few potential high-end games (USC-UCLA, Oklahoma State-Baylor, Louisville-Notre Dame) that keep the week from being awful. We also get a couple of games that could help decide some of the ickier Power 5 divisions (Wisconsin-Iowa and Miami-Virginia), so there's that. And finally, if nothing else, this weekend avoids the bottom spot with a little mid-week MACtion. Gotta love the MACtion.
#7 November 1st
The first week of November lacks depth, but gets by with two marquee games: Stanford-Oregon and Florida State's toughest remaining road test against Louisville. The SEC gives us Arkansas-Mississippi State and Auburn-Ole Miss, so there's some potential intrigue if the Mississippi schools are still in contention (which I think they will be!). If you're looking for drama regarding the auto-bid for the best non-Power 5 champion, East Carolina's trip to a much-improved Temple could be of interest.
#6 October 18th
Similarly to November 1st, this weekend relies on a couple of biggies: Texas A&M-Alabama and Notre Dame-Florida State. The Big 12 adds a little drama as well with Baylor traveling to West Virginia, and Oklahoma hosting Kansas State (The Sooners lost last time Bill Snyder's crew visited Norman in 2012). Georgia travels to Arkansas in a game that should feature a whole lot of running (but still probably not enough for Georgia fans' tastes).
#5 November 15th
This is where it starts to get really good. East Carolina travels to Cincinnati on Thursday in a game that will feature points galore. The SEC pecking order will quite possibly be decided with games such as Auburn-Georgia, Missouri-Texas A&M, and Mississippi State-Alabama. The latter game features the two teams with the best odds of winning the West, for real (more on this later). The Big Ten West division will most probably be decided when Nebraska travels to Wisconsin. If Miami keeps improving, their home game against Florida State could be a lot more interesting than last year's game. Finally, Ohio State goes to Minnesota, in what just feels like it could be one of those bizarre upsets we remember for years.
#4 November 8th
This weekend is all about big games. Baylor-Oklahoma. Alabama-LSU. Texas A&M-Auburn. Ohio State-Michigan State. Throw in a couple of fun road tests for the Pac 12 contenders (Oregon-Utah, UCLA-Washington), and we have ourselves an amazing weekend.
#3 October 11th
The SEC games this weekend (Ole Miss-Texas A&M, Auburn-Mississippi State, Alabama-Arkansas, and Georgia-Missouri) are good enough to propel this Saturday up the rankings. Add in Oregon-UCLA and TCU-Baylor, and we have ourselves a Saturday with wall-to-wall goodness.
#2 November 29th
Thanksgiving weekend always features enough rivalries to make it one of the best weeks of the year. While a couple of those may be a bit less interesting than usual (Clemson and South Carolina already have two losses apiece, Florida and Michigan are too awful to make their games interesting), the weekend is still pretty great. Notre Dame's trip to USC could have playoff implications for both teams. Stanford-UCLA could possibly decide both Pac 12 divisional races. LSU-Texas A&M is bound to a be a nice post-turkey treat. Alabama and Auburn will probably add another chapter to the increasing drama in their rivalry. And finally, the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State has a chance to the most meaningful meeting between the in-state rivals perhaps ever.
#1 October 4th (hey that's this weekend!)
As luck would have it, this coming weekend just might be the best of the season. Part of this is the nature of October: Earlier in the season, there are fewer teams that have had their hopes dashed by untimely losses, so there are in theory more contenders, and thus more games that affect conference and national title races. Part of this is that most of the teams we know are good have massive games this weekend, many of them against each other. In light of how awesome this weekend is likely to be, here is a countdown (the second countdown in this post...what a treat!) of the best games of the weekend:
#10: Arizona at Oregon
I don't imagine this will be a particularly competitive game, but it is one of four battles of unbeaten teams, so it makes it onto the list. According to S&P+, Oregon has the most efficient offense in the country, while Arizona has the 76th best defense. As long as Oregon used the bye week to heal a few of the injuries along their lines, the Ducks should roll.
#9: Baylor at Texas
Much like the Oregon game, I doubt this will be a great game. That said, it is at least a road test for the thus-far untested Bears. Plus, we have the added intrigue of Charlie Strong trying to take back the state of Texas from Art Briles. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, I suspect that desire will have to wait a year or two before it turns into anything substantive.
#8: Ohio State at Maryland
Here's where it starts to get really interesting. With the rest of the previously decent-looking Big Ten East falling on their faces, these two teams remain as the only serious contenders to unseat Michigan State. Ohio State is certainly more talented and seems to have figured their offense out (albeit against some pretty bad defenses), but we have yet to see J.T Barrett play a true road game. Given that Maryland's strength is their defense, the Terrapins stand a pretty decent shot at keeping this game low-scoring and getting a chance to take the victory. The matchup between Maryland's stud WR Stefon Diggs against a young Buckeye secondary will be the one to watch.
#7: Utah at UCLA
This matchup looked a little sexier before last weekend, before UCLA proceeded to win big on the road, and Utah dropped a home game to a decent (but not that decent) Washington State. While Utah's win at the Big House has lost some of its luster (OK, all of its luster), Travis Wilson remains the most gunslingiest QB west of Bo Wallace, and gives his team a chance to be in every game they play. Everyone has seemingly hopped back on UCLA's bandwagon after one big win (nevermind that Arizona State doesn't seem all that good), but I still remain skeptical of their ceiling this year. If they play at all like they did the first few weeks, alternating terrible offensive and defensive performances, then this game has a chance to be a major letdown for the Bruins.
#6: LSU at Auburn
This is where this weekend gets insane. LSU-Auburn is typically one of the best games of the year, and with both teams ranked in the top 15, the game is only the sixth best of the weekend? While I am excited to catch some of LSU freshman QB Brandon Harris' debut, LSU feels a step behind the rest of the ruling class of the SEC West. Turning to a new QB in an environment where LSU will most certainly need to score a lot to keep up doesn't seem like a recipe for a particularly close game. Still, Auburn has looked far from perfect this season, which should give LSU a chance. John Chavis and friends were the only defense to significantly slow down Malzahn's attack last year, so it will be interesting to see if their strategies still work now that Auburn has turned into a bit of a juggernaut.
#5: Oklahoma at TCU
Oklahoma is currently a 5-point road favorite over the Horned Frogs. What is notable about this is that this is the smallest line for any Oklahoma game for the remainder of the season. As Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all travel to Norman, this might be the best chance for a Sooners upset before the playoff. TCU is still a bit of a blank slate at this point, but Gary Patterson's team has almost pulled off the upset the last couple of years, and finally enters this game without a mound of injuries.
#4: Stanford at Notre Dame
I'm not sure how to feel about this game. Stanford hasn't looked particularly great in their two games against real competition, but they are still really good at taking away what makes your offense work (this shows in the results with under 300 yards surrendered to USC, and under 200 yards for Washington). This means that the short passing/screening that made the Syracuse win possible probably won't fly in this game. Honestly, returning to a bit of the 2012 game plan of pounding the ball and setting up play-action might not be a bad strategy against the Cardinal. Since Stanford is insanely good at controlling field position, stealing a few big plays on offense might make all of the difference. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Hogan is still basically the same QB he was in 2012: Mobile and capable of making a few throws, but certainly not someone who can carry an offense to victory with any reliability. In the end, I worry that a big play (or two) from Ty Montgomery might make all the difference. We shall see.
#3: Nebraska at Michigan State
After an hour or so off after the ND game, I get to watch the Huskers take on their toughest test of the year, which means I will be a ball of stress for most of Saturday. While Michigan State is know for their defense, the offense (3rd in S&P+) has been leading the way thus far. Nebraska is no Oregon, but with the way the Ducks were able to move the ball consistently on the Spartans, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nebraska have a pretty good day on offense. Michigan State was surprisingly bad at giving up big plays last year (74th in IsoPPP+), so the Huskers shouldn't be afraid to take some shots with Bell and Westerkamp. I am much more worried about the Blackshirts in their quest to stop the much improved Connor Cook. The Spartans will probably ride their talent and their home field advantage to victory, but a legitimately improved Nebraska team has a decent shot at pulling off the upset.
#2: Texas A&M at Mississippi State
The last two games on this list involve the ascendant Mississippi schools. It's easy to be inherently skeptical of both squads given the recent history of the power struggle in the SEC West. That said, both teams have been really good this year, and both have really good odds to pull off the big victories this weekend. Mississippi State is actually favored in this game, and (in a noon kickoff at home) gets to face an Aggie team coming off of a very physical and emotional game against Arkansas. It feels weird to treat the Bulldogs as the favorite in this game, but given their talent and the situation, we absolutely should. What's even weirder is that it may not end here. From this article on the remainder of the season in the SEC:
"The SEC West is the best division in the country and might end up the best division of all time, and Mississippi State might have the best chance of winning it."
That is insane sounding, but it makes perfect sense. First, Mississippi State lucks out by drawing the two easiest teams from the East, Vandy and Kentucky. Second, they are the only team in the division that already has a road victory against a division opponent, so that gives them a bit of a leg up on everyone else. Finally, F/+ has the team rated as the seventh best in the nation, so they are just a fantastic squad in the first place. In the end, it's absolutely possible that A&M's offense is too much for the Bulldogs, and this narrative will end here and now. But just the fact that the odds say you shouldn't expect that to happen is a big, big step for Dan Mullen's program.
#1: Alabama at Ole Miss
This game truly has everything. The pageantry of The Grove. The hype of College Gameday. Playoff implications. And most importantly, a really, really good matchup. These are the top two defenses in football (Ole Miss 2nd, Bama 6th per S&P+), and the offenses don't rank too far behind. The Rebel defense will be by far the stiffest test yet for Lane Kiffin's offense, but the matchup on the other side in the most fascinating for me (which is incredible, considering that the chance to embarrass Lane Kiffin on national TV is hard to top). Alabama's defense is solid as always, but it's not particularly great at making big plays, preferring instead to simply wear you down over sixty minutes. Enter Bo Wallace, who is 1) plenty capable of proficiency in the vertical passing game and 2) rather prone to incredibly dumb turnovers. Because of how well the former matches up against a still shaky Bama secondary, and because of how poorly the latter would work against a methodical defense, I feel that literally anything could happen. Dr. Bo could throw for 400 yards and grab the biggest victory for Ole Miss in decades. Or he could turn it over four times and get shut out against the Tide for the second straight year. I have little to no idea what will happen in this game, but whatever it is, it's sure to be both interesting and meaningful.
Thus, instead of spending a bunch of time talking about what has happened thus far, I'd rather talk about the rest of the season to come. Since humans love nothing more than anticipating awesome things, this only makes sense. With the hilarious strength of the SEC West, the depth of the Pac 12, the surprisingly large group of contenders in the Big 12, and Florida State seemingly needing to inject drama into every game they play, there is so much to look forward to. To help both you and me do that, here is a countdown of the best remaining weekends in the season (I am excluding the final weekend of the season, as it's now a bit of a hollow shell, with almost every conference playing a championship game. It's a great weekend, no doubt, but it's a bit of an odd one). When evaluating these weekends, I am looking to both quality and depth, and then using my relative interest in the teams involved to break ties (for example, Baylor's prolific passing and their up-and-coming nature is a little more interesting to me than say, LSU's plodding offense).
#9 October 25th
If you have some sort of fall project that needs to get done, or want to take a weekend trip somewhere, or just want to see how long a human can sleep, this is probably the weekend to do it. The last weekend in October lacks both depth and high-end quality, while every other weekend has at least one of the two. Part of this stems from many of the top teams having byes (for example, Big 12 favorites Oklahoma and Baylor both take the week off). The rest of it stems from the matchups just not being all that good. When the action on Saturday is almost surpassed in excitement by the Friday games (Oregon goes to a feisty Cal, a likely undefeated BYU travels to Boise), it's not a good sign.
Since the SEC is the best conference by a fair margin this year, a big determinant of the awesomeness of a weekend depends on what they have scheduled. With Ole Miss-LSU, Alabama-Tennessee, and South Carolina-Auburn as the only games of note, this is a particularly weak slate of games, at least when compared to other weeks. Of course, other conferences don't really help out much, either. USC traveling to Utah could be a fun game if the Utes can avoid further bad losses. West Virginia-Oklahoma State and Maryland-Wisconsin have some promise, but it's tough to get too fired up about either of those. The ACC Coastal has some games that could help decide the division, but when you're on a 4-4 watch, there's only so much excitement that one can generate.
#8 November 22nd
The weekend before Thanksgiving is often a bit of a wasteland, with a bunch of SEC and ACC teams taking it easy before their rivalry games. Arkansas-Ole Miss and Missouri-Tennssee comprise the only SEC games of note, so there's not much there. That said, there are few potential high-end games (USC-UCLA, Oklahoma State-Baylor, Louisville-Notre Dame) that keep the week from being awful. We also get a couple of games that could help decide some of the ickier Power 5 divisions (Wisconsin-Iowa and Miami-Virginia), so there's that. And finally, if nothing else, this weekend avoids the bottom spot with a little mid-week MACtion. Gotta love the MACtion.
#7 November 1st
The first week of November lacks depth, but gets by with two marquee games: Stanford-Oregon and Florida State's toughest remaining road test against Louisville. The SEC gives us Arkansas-Mississippi State and Auburn-Ole Miss, so there's some potential intrigue if the Mississippi schools are still in contention (which I think they will be!). If you're looking for drama regarding the auto-bid for the best non-Power 5 champion, East Carolina's trip to a much-improved Temple could be of interest.
#6 October 18th
Similarly to November 1st, this weekend relies on a couple of biggies: Texas A&M-Alabama and Notre Dame-Florida State. The Big 12 adds a little drama as well with Baylor traveling to West Virginia, and Oklahoma hosting Kansas State (The Sooners lost last time Bill Snyder's crew visited Norman in 2012). Georgia travels to Arkansas in a game that should feature a whole lot of running (but still probably not enough for Georgia fans' tastes).
#5 November 15th
This is where it starts to get really good. East Carolina travels to Cincinnati on Thursday in a game that will feature points galore. The SEC pecking order will quite possibly be decided with games such as Auburn-Georgia, Missouri-Texas A&M, and Mississippi State-Alabama. The latter game features the two teams with the best odds of winning the West, for real (more on this later). The Big Ten West division will most probably be decided when Nebraska travels to Wisconsin. If Miami keeps improving, their home game against Florida State could be a lot more interesting than last year's game. Finally, Ohio State goes to Minnesota, in what just feels like it could be one of those bizarre upsets we remember for years.
#4 November 8th
This weekend is all about big games. Baylor-Oklahoma. Alabama-LSU. Texas A&M-Auburn. Ohio State-Michigan State. Throw in a couple of fun road tests for the Pac 12 contenders (Oregon-Utah, UCLA-Washington), and we have ourselves an amazing weekend.
#3 October 11th
The SEC games this weekend (Ole Miss-Texas A&M, Auburn-Mississippi State, Alabama-Arkansas, and Georgia-Missouri) are good enough to propel this Saturday up the rankings. Add in Oregon-UCLA and TCU-Baylor, and we have ourselves a Saturday with wall-to-wall goodness.
#2 November 29th
Thanksgiving weekend always features enough rivalries to make it one of the best weeks of the year. While a couple of those may be a bit less interesting than usual (Clemson and South Carolina already have two losses apiece, Florida and Michigan are too awful to make their games interesting), the weekend is still pretty great. Notre Dame's trip to USC could have playoff implications for both teams. Stanford-UCLA could possibly decide both Pac 12 divisional races. LSU-Texas A&M is bound to a be a nice post-turkey treat. Alabama and Auburn will probably add another chapter to the increasing drama in their rivalry. And finally, the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State has a chance to the most meaningful meeting between the in-state rivals perhaps ever.
#1 October 4th (hey that's this weekend!)
As luck would have it, this coming weekend just might be the best of the season. Part of this is the nature of October: Earlier in the season, there are fewer teams that have had their hopes dashed by untimely losses, so there are in theory more contenders, and thus more games that affect conference and national title races. Part of this is that most of the teams we know are good have massive games this weekend, many of them against each other. In light of how awesome this weekend is likely to be, here is a countdown (the second countdown in this post...what a treat!) of the best games of the weekend:
#10: Arizona at Oregon
I don't imagine this will be a particularly competitive game, but it is one of four battles of unbeaten teams, so it makes it onto the list. According to S&P+, Oregon has the most efficient offense in the country, while Arizona has the 76th best defense. As long as Oregon used the bye week to heal a few of the injuries along their lines, the Ducks should roll.
#9: Baylor at Texas
Much like the Oregon game, I doubt this will be a great game. That said, it is at least a road test for the thus-far untested Bears. Plus, we have the added intrigue of Charlie Strong trying to take back the state of Texas from Art Briles. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, I suspect that desire will have to wait a year or two before it turns into anything substantive.
#8: Ohio State at Maryland
Here's where it starts to get really interesting. With the rest of the previously decent-looking Big Ten East falling on their faces, these two teams remain as the only serious contenders to unseat Michigan State. Ohio State is certainly more talented and seems to have figured their offense out (albeit against some pretty bad defenses), but we have yet to see J.T Barrett play a true road game. Given that Maryland's strength is their defense, the Terrapins stand a pretty decent shot at keeping this game low-scoring and getting a chance to take the victory. The matchup between Maryland's stud WR Stefon Diggs against a young Buckeye secondary will be the one to watch.
#7: Utah at UCLA
This matchup looked a little sexier before last weekend, before UCLA proceeded to win big on the road, and Utah dropped a home game to a decent (but not that decent) Washington State. While Utah's win at the Big House has lost some of its luster (OK, all of its luster), Travis Wilson remains the most gunslingiest QB west of Bo Wallace, and gives his team a chance to be in every game they play. Everyone has seemingly hopped back on UCLA's bandwagon after one big win (nevermind that Arizona State doesn't seem all that good), but I still remain skeptical of their ceiling this year. If they play at all like they did the first few weeks, alternating terrible offensive and defensive performances, then this game has a chance to be a major letdown for the Bruins.
#6: LSU at Auburn
This is where this weekend gets insane. LSU-Auburn is typically one of the best games of the year, and with both teams ranked in the top 15, the game is only the sixth best of the weekend? While I am excited to catch some of LSU freshman QB Brandon Harris' debut, LSU feels a step behind the rest of the ruling class of the SEC West. Turning to a new QB in an environment where LSU will most certainly need to score a lot to keep up doesn't seem like a recipe for a particularly close game. Still, Auburn has looked far from perfect this season, which should give LSU a chance. John Chavis and friends were the only defense to significantly slow down Malzahn's attack last year, so it will be interesting to see if their strategies still work now that Auburn has turned into a bit of a juggernaut.
#5: Oklahoma at TCU
Oklahoma is currently a 5-point road favorite over the Horned Frogs. What is notable about this is that this is the smallest line for any Oklahoma game for the remainder of the season. As Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all travel to Norman, this might be the best chance for a Sooners upset before the playoff. TCU is still a bit of a blank slate at this point, but Gary Patterson's team has almost pulled off the upset the last couple of years, and finally enters this game without a mound of injuries.
#4: Stanford at Notre Dame
I'm not sure how to feel about this game. Stanford hasn't looked particularly great in their two games against real competition, but they are still really good at taking away what makes your offense work (this shows in the results with under 300 yards surrendered to USC, and under 200 yards for Washington). This means that the short passing/screening that made the Syracuse win possible probably won't fly in this game. Honestly, returning to a bit of the 2012 game plan of pounding the ball and setting up play-action might not be a bad strategy against the Cardinal. Since Stanford is insanely good at controlling field position, stealing a few big plays on offense might make all of the difference. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Hogan is still basically the same QB he was in 2012: Mobile and capable of making a few throws, but certainly not someone who can carry an offense to victory with any reliability. In the end, I worry that a big play (or two) from Ty Montgomery might make all the difference. We shall see.
#3: Nebraska at Michigan State
After an hour or so off after the ND game, I get to watch the Huskers take on their toughest test of the year, which means I will be a ball of stress for most of Saturday. While Michigan State is know for their defense, the offense (3rd in S&P+) has been leading the way thus far. Nebraska is no Oregon, but with the way the Ducks were able to move the ball consistently on the Spartans, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nebraska have a pretty good day on offense. Michigan State was surprisingly bad at giving up big plays last year (74th in IsoPPP+), so the Huskers shouldn't be afraid to take some shots with Bell and Westerkamp. I am much more worried about the Blackshirts in their quest to stop the much improved Connor Cook. The Spartans will probably ride their talent and their home field advantage to victory, but a legitimately improved Nebraska team has a decent shot at pulling off the upset.
#2: Texas A&M at Mississippi State
The last two games on this list involve the ascendant Mississippi schools. It's easy to be inherently skeptical of both squads given the recent history of the power struggle in the SEC West. That said, both teams have been really good this year, and both have really good odds to pull off the big victories this weekend. Mississippi State is actually favored in this game, and (in a noon kickoff at home) gets to face an Aggie team coming off of a very physical and emotional game against Arkansas. It feels weird to treat the Bulldogs as the favorite in this game, but given their talent and the situation, we absolutely should. What's even weirder is that it may not end here. From this article on the remainder of the season in the SEC:
"The SEC West is the best division in the country and might end up the best division of all time, and Mississippi State might have the best chance of winning it."
That is insane sounding, but it makes perfect sense. First, Mississippi State lucks out by drawing the two easiest teams from the East, Vandy and Kentucky. Second, they are the only team in the division that already has a road victory against a division opponent, so that gives them a bit of a leg up on everyone else. Finally, F/+ has the team rated as the seventh best in the nation, so they are just a fantastic squad in the first place. In the end, it's absolutely possible that A&M's offense is too much for the Bulldogs, and this narrative will end here and now. But just the fact that the odds say you shouldn't expect that to happen is a big, big step for Dan Mullen's program.
#1: Alabama at Ole Miss
This game truly has everything. The pageantry of The Grove. The hype of College Gameday. Playoff implications. And most importantly, a really, really good matchup. These are the top two defenses in football (Ole Miss 2nd, Bama 6th per S&P+), and the offenses don't rank too far behind. The Rebel defense will be by far the stiffest test yet for Lane Kiffin's offense, but the matchup on the other side in the most fascinating for me (which is incredible, considering that the chance to embarrass Lane Kiffin on national TV is hard to top). Alabama's defense is solid as always, but it's not particularly great at making big plays, preferring instead to simply wear you down over sixty minutes. Enter Bo Wallace, who is 1) plenty capable of proficiency in the vertical passing game and 2) rather prone to incredibly dumb turnovers. Because of how well the former matches up against a still shaky Bama secondary, and because of how poorly the latter would work against a methodical defense, I feel that literally anything could happen. Dr. Bo could throw for 400 yards and grab the biggest victory for Ole Miss in decades. Or he could turn it over four times and get shut out against the Tide for the second straight year. I have little to no idea what will happen in this game, but whatever it is, it's sure to be both interesting and meaningful.
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