Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 4

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Clemson	3	76.44%	1.5%
2	Ohio State	2	65.79%	15.2%
3	Alabama	1	48.42%	-11.5%
4	Oklahoma	6	38.42%	-0.9%
5	Georgia	4	36.07%	7.1%
6	LSU	5	29.16%	-2.2%
7	Wisconsin	7	27.10%	3.9%
8	Penn State	11	17.42%	3.6%
9	Auburn	8	16.59%	5.8%
10	Oregon	10	11.70%	-0.1%
11	Notre Dame	9	10.11%	-16.6%
12	Florida	12	7.92%	0.4%
13	Washington	13	5.31%	2.8%
14	Wake Forest	40	2.35%	1.2%
15	Iowa	22	1.36%	0.0%
16	Texas	17	0.94%	0.3%
17	Kansas State	25	0.78%	0.1%
18	Virginia	34	0.69%	-0.9%
19	Utah	24	0.63%	-2.5%
20	California	41	0.51%	0.4%
21	Oklahoma State	21	0.35%	-2.0%
22	Michigan State	16	0.31%	-0.1%
23	Boise State	31	0.29%	0.0%
24	Mississippi State	18	0.28%	0.1%
25	Michigan	20	0.27%	-2.2%
26	USC	26	0.16%	0.1%
27	Minnesota	48	0.12%	-0.1%
28	Maryland	27	0.10%	0.0%
29	Iowa State	23	0.07%	0.1%
30	Washington State	28	0.07%	-1.5%
31	Baylor	30	0.06%	-0.3%
32	Pitt	45	0.04%	0.0%
33	Arizona State	39	0.03%	-0.6%
34	SMU	44	0.02%	0.0%
35	Memphis	37	0.02%	0.0%
36	Syracuse	60	0.01%	0.0%
37	Texas A&M	14	0.01%	-0.2%
38	Appalachian State	54	0.01%	0.0%
39	Miami (FL)	29	0.01%	0.0%
40	Indiana	47	0.01%	0.0%
41	North Carolina State	58	0.01%	0.0%
42	Duke	49	0.01%	0.0%
43	Nebraska	38	0.01%	0.0%
44	TCU	32	0.01%	-0.4%
45	Kentucky	35	0.01%	-0.1%
46	Florida State	43	0.00%	0.0%
47	Virginia Tech	63	0.00%	0.0%
48	Arizona	46	0.00%	0.0%
49	West Virginia	65	0.00%	0.0%
50	Texas Tech	42	0.00%	0.0%
51	UAB	99	0.00%	0.0%
52	Boston College	80	0.00%	0.0%
53	Colorado	56	0.00%	0.0%
54	North Carolina	51	0.00%	0.0%
55	Louisville	66	0.00%	0.0%
56	Ole Miss	59	0.00%	0.0%
57	Northwestern	74	0.00%	0.0%
58	Illinois	88	0.00%	0.0%
59	Arkansas	90	0.00%	0.0%
60	Rutgers	105	0.00%	0.0%
61	Kansas	93	0.00%	0.0%
62	Purdue	77	0.00%	0.0%
63	Georgia Tech	94	0.00%	0.0%
64	Oregon State	79	0.00%	0.0%
65	Navy	73	0.00%	0.0%

1.  Nothing much to report this week, as the top 13 teams in the ratings are the 13 teams that comprise almost the entirety of the Playoff odds.  Ohio State leaps to second as they continue to completely dominate their admittedly weak competition.  Notre Dame falls with their loss, but still has a path to the Playoff (~30% chance of winning out).

What I do want to talk about is something else.  Every week before I run my simulation of 10,000 seasons I run a single season test to double check that I haven't made any major mistakes.  This week's test was....interesting, to say the least.  Here's what was left at the end of that hypothetical season:

• 12-1 Big Ten champ Ohio State, with a loss to Penn State the week before Thanksgiving
• 12-1 SEC champ LSU (!), with a loss to Florida in a couple weeks
• 12-1 ACC champ Clemson, with a loss to North Carolina (!!) next week
• 12-1 Pac 12 champ Oregon, with the last-minute loss to Auburn
• 12-1 Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma, with a loss to revenge-minded Texas in the title game
• 12-1 SEC runner-up Georgia
• 11-1 Notre Dame
• And for good measure, there's a 10-2 Alabama lurking as well as 13-0 Boise and App State

I've talked a few times about how there's been minimal drama for the committee through the first five seasons of the Playoff era, largely because there's been literally no championship week drama the entire time.  This scenario would be just that and it would lead to an all-time logjam at the top.  It's reasonably clear that LSU and Ohio State would be selected in this scenario because of superior schedules, but beyond that, who knows.  Georgia would have the best SOS of the remaining teams and would probably make it, but then one of the Clemson/Oregon duo would get bumped even though they won their conference.  And Oklahoma would still have a pretty good argument as well, as they would have beaten every team on their schedule.  Even 13-0 Boise would likely be in the mix, as their SOS in this scenario might actually be better than a couple of the power conference teams.  It looks like we're headed towards another top-heavy year in college football, so the least we can root for is some chaos at least approaching this in magnitude.

2.  We are left with exactly half of the teams after four weeks as South Carolina, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Central Florida, Air Force, San Diego State, Temple, and Wyoming were all eliminated this week.  UCF had a sliver of a shot at the Playoff, but they got Pitted.  Happens to the best of us.

3.  Not a lot of dramatic swings in the conference races this week, save for the Pac-12 South which was flipped on its side with USC's mild upset of Utah.  Texas takes a modest lead for the second slot in the Big 12 title game with their win over the Cowboys.  SMU and Utah State continue to creep up slowly in their respective divisions.  And the SEC East is almost certainly going to come down to the winner of the Cocktail Party.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	97.8%		Wake Forest	1.2%
ACCC	Virginia	49.3%		Miami (FL)	23.1%
AMEE	Central Florida	85.4%		Cincinnati	11.8%
AMEW	Memphis	39.2%		SMU	29.6%
B10E	Ohio State	78.3%		Penn State	14.3%
B10W	Wisconsin	83.0%		Iowa	12.3%
B12	Oklahoma	87.1%		Texas	47.9%
CUSAE	Marshall	55.4%		Florida Atlantic	30.5%
CUSAW	North Texas	48.2%		Southern Miss	30.0%
MACE	Ohio	53.7%		Buffalo	17.7%
MACW	Toledo	50.0%		Western Michigan	36.1%
MWCW	Fresno State	40.0%		San Diego State	35.6%
MWCM	Boise State	55.9%		Utah State	38.2%
P12N	Oregon	72.5%		Washington	21.6%
P12S	USC	54.7%		Utah	23.7%
SECE	Georgia	78.3%		Florida	21.0%
SECW	Alabama	69.8%		LSU	18.4%
SUNE	Appalachian State	71.1%		Troy	18.8%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	68.2%		Arkansas State	28.0%

Week 5 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Nebraska	Ohio State	8.0%	0.022
Notre Dame	Virginia	87.2%	0.018
North Carolina	Clemson	5.8%	0.017
Maryland	Penn State	30.0%	0.014
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	92.3%	0.010
Auburn	Mississippi State	75.2%	0.009
Utah	Washington State	60.2%	0.007
Alabama	Ole Miss	98.1%	0.005
Wisconsin	Northwestern	96.2%	0.005
Oklahoma State	Kansas State	61.1%	0.004

At first, it may seem weird that Gameday is going to Nebraska this week for what is likely to be a blowout, but 1) it's actually the "best" game of the week, and 2) they haven't been to Lincoln in forever so it only makes sense they'd jump on the chance to do so.  In other action, the extremely lopsided Penn State-Maryland rivalry should actually be interesting this year, and it's got a prime slot on Friday night.  Just outside the top ten games is USC-Washington, which is suddenly an important game for both sides of the Pac-12 title game race.  It's not a great weekend overall, but it'll do.