So after over a year away, I thought I'd start blogging again. I've got 4 weeks off from school for the holidays, so I figured I might as well do something constructive. When I started this blog last year, I started out trying to write a weekly college football entry, and that didn't really work for me. It was hard to come up with something every week that people probably weren't reading anyway. So, I'm going to be a little more casual this time around. A lot of entries may not be sports related as well, so the title of the blog may evolve into a Cougar Town-like placeholder. We'll see.
Anyways, I thought I would start with my bowl picks (here's my ESPN entry to show you I'm not lying). I am normally terrible at this, so of course it makes logical sense to share my picks. I will refer to Football Outsiders' F+ rankings occasionally. These rankings are a combination of their two advanced college football rankings, one of which looks at play by play data, and the other which looks at drive data. More info can be found here.
Below are the picks, seperated into semi-arbitrary groups. For some, I even have semi-coherent reasoning that I will share. You're welcome.
Group 1: Mortal locks
35 points: Boise St. over Arizona St.
The obvious mismatch of the bowl season. This game may set a record for the most people putting max points on it in their bowl pools. I suspect that Kellen Moore's last college game will go something like Tebow's last game in the Sugar Bowl a couple of years ago, which is to say that it won't go well for ASU. Also, Vontaze Burfict will get one last chance to be an amateur crazy person.
34 points: Oklahoma over Iowa
33 points: Toledo over Air Force
So many reasons for this pick. One, while I usually hate the "I saw them in person" argument, I saw Air Force in person and they were turrible. Two, Toledo played the crap out of Ohio St., Boise St., and Northern Illinois this year. Three, these teams are seperated by a ridiculous 50 spots in FO's rankings (30 to 80). I almost put this game in the top spot.
Group 2: Feeling pretty good
32 points: Baylor over Washington
I almost put this game in the first group, but Baylor's defense is just way too bad to justify showing that much confidence in them. Their D is ranked an astoundingly low 95th according to FO (yes, that is adjusted for quality of opponent and such). Also, they almost lost to Kansas. All that being said, I don't really see Washington slowing down RG3.
31 points: TCU over Louisiana Tech
30 points: Southern Miss over Nevada
I'm usually not huge on picking the team whose coach left for greener pastures over the team with a hall of fame coach in tow. However, Nevada is not good.
29 points: Texas over California
Will Cal get vengeance for getting snubbed from the BCS in 2004 by Mack Brown's shameless begging? Will anyone care? I'm going with no.
28 points: Temple over Wyoming
In what has to be a bowl record, these teams are seperated by 78 spots in the FO rankings (23 to 101). Still, there are three reasons this game isn't higher in my list. One, the game is in New Mexico, so altitude concerns may come into play. Two, I put a billion points on Fresno St. to beat Wyoming in this very bowl two years ago, and it backfired. I know that means next to nothing for today's procedings, but still.
Group 3: I'm leaning one way
27 points: Illinois over UCLA
UCLA's offense is bad. Illinois' offense is bad. UCLA's defense is bad. Illinois' defense is good. If only all picks were this simple.
26 points: Arkansas over Kansas St.
25 points: LSU over Alabama
Contrary to what some would have you believe, LSU has a lot to play for here*, maybe more than the average #1 team. If they pull off the win somewhat convincingly, they may go down as the best team in the BCS era (I'd still take 2001 Miami, but it's an argument at least). I don't think there'll be any motivational problems here.
*Besides all of the Tostitos
24 points: Texas A&M over Northwestern
One of the best 6-6 teams in recent memory vs. the legendary Dan Persa in his last game. Should be a doozy. As much as I would love to see the Wildcats end their 8 game bowl losing streak, A&M is a little too loaded to let that happen.
23 points: Missouri over North Carolina
22 points: Ohio St. over Florida
What a bizarre game. This one is a beautfiul reminder that seemingly unstoppable dynasties in college football can fade quite quickly. I have this one relatively high on the list because I feel like Ohio St. actually has a fairly good team buried beneath all the ugliness. Part of that may be the fact that they are actually at full strength now, and will have a month to re-intergrate guys like Devier Posey. Plus, Ohio St. currently has two head coaches. If they were to give the pre-game speech by alternating words between each other, I would be totally motivated to win.
21 points: Northern Illinois over Arkansas St.
NIU's Chandler Harnish is 12th in the nation in rushing. He is also a quarterback. He is also awesome. I feel like that's enough reasoning to pick Northern Illinois, but it also helps that Arkansas St. coach Hugh Freeze is gone to Ole Miss.
20 points: FIU over Marshall
While Wyoming is the lowest ranked team in a bowl according to FO, I think Marshall is probably actually worse (the difference is only 4 spots, so such an assertion is well within any reasonable statistical error margin). Also, FIU actually has an impressive win (Louisville), so they get the nod here.
19 points: Louisville over NC State
18 points: Oklahoma St. over Stanford
Teams that get unjustly left out of the BCS often have a bit of a letdown in their second-run bowl game. #5 Cal lost to Texas Tech in the 2004 Holiday Bowl. #3 Kansas St. lost to Purdue in the 1998 Alamo Bowl. However, #3 teams that still get a BCS invite usually don't show the same effect. For example, USC still won the Rose Bowl in 2003 to take a share of the national title. Oklahoma St. is a little more dynamic than Stanford, and probably a little bit better overall. Andrew Luck may have a little magic up his sleeve, but I like the Cowboys to take this one.
17 points: Mississippi St. over Wake Forest
My preseason darling Bulldogs weren't exactly good this year. Still, they should hopefully be able to use the three extra weeks of practice to find enough offense to beat the Deacs. FO does have MSU's defense ranked #21, so they haven't been completely terrible (they did hold LSU to 19 points FWIW).
Group 4: I've got a hunch
16 points: SDSU over Louisiana
15 points: Pitt over SMU
Another game with weird coaching situations. June Jones was all but gone to Arizona St., but now he's back. Todd Graham then left Pitt for Arizona St. after just 11 months with the Panthers. I guess both coaches sold their soul to the devil. The Sun Devil that is! HAHAHAHAHAHA!
14 points: Clemson over West Virginia
This is mostly an indictment of Dana Holgerson. While he seems to be a brilliant OC, I'm still on the fence with regards to his head coaching abilities. I'll reserve judgment for a few years until he gets his recruits in place. A win here would be big for him.
13 points: Michigan over Virginia Tech
12 points: Auburn over Virginia
11 points: BYU over Tulsa
10 points: Florida St. over ND
The two best 4 loss teams (FSU is 8th in the F+ rankings, ND 13th) battle for the right to be ranked slightly above the other one at the start of next season. Having watched all ND games minus the Wake contest, I feel like ND can definitely put together a complete game and win this. However, I know our definciencies (lack of overall athleticism on D, mistake prone on offense), and I think the Noles will be able to take advantage of those faults.
9 points: Rutgers over Iowa St.
While the Oklahoma St. win makes me think that Iowa St. can beat anybody, I'm a little skeptical. Iowa St. went a ridiculously unsustainable 5-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown. Paul Rhoads is great and seems to be getting the most out of what he has, but I think Rutgers is better.
8 points: Western Michigan over Purdue
Because why not.
Group 5: Whatever
7 points: Utah St. over Ohio
6 points: Vandy over Cincinnati
As much as it hurts to pick against Munchie Legaux, I am doing so.
5 points: Penn St. over Houston
After watching Case Keenum struggle against Southern Miss, I just don't think he's going to have a great outing against Penn St. Of course, Penn State's offense is terrible, so he may not need to be great to win.
4 points: Michigan St. over Georgia
This is one of my favorite matchups of the bowl season. In spite of different perceptions of these teams mostly due to their conference affiliations, these teams are pretty similar. They both have decent offenses led by capable qbs, along with ferocious defenses. Stats back up my assertions: Michigan St. has the #20 offense and #13 defense. Georgia, the #17 offense and #15 defense. The Spartans' no show in last year's bowl is what keeps this in the bottom group. If they show up, they can win.
3 points: South Carolina over Nebraska
South Carolina is a known quantity at this point: Good defense and a mediocre offense that can still create a little magic with QB Connor Shaw. Nebraska is perhaps the least known quantity ever. Some weeks they show up (Michigan St.), others they don't (Michigan, Northwestern). Sometimes they even show their split personalities within the same game (Ohio St.). If Taylor Martinez can avoid mistakes, then Nebraska can win. Insert your own comical way of saying that that is a big if here:______________________________.
2 points: Oregon over Wisconsin
Pretty much anything could happen here. These are both great teams, but in completely different ways. They key is going to be Wisconsin's ability to create turnovers. Oregon's main weakness, like many run-first spread teams, is coughing the ball up. If Wisconsin can capitalize on that, they'll win. If not, Russell Wilson will have to have an amazing day to keep up with Oregon.
1 point: Utah over Georgia Tech
The ultimate in unpredictable bowl games. One team (Utah), has a terrible offense but a good defense. The other (GT), has a unique offense and below average defense. What's more is that GT's offense often seems to be a boom or bust proposition that doesn't necessarily depend on the quality of the opposing defense. Add to all of this the fact that both schools seem to be preternaturally good at bowl games (GT is 22-15 all time, Utah is 12-4), and I've got nothing.
