Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 13

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Notre Dame	7	100.0%	11.1%
2	Clemson	2	99.1%	1.2%
3	Alabama	1	89.2%	3.6%
4	Georgia	3	44.2%	5.1%
5	Oklahoma	5	35.8%	12.4%
6	Ohio State	6	21.0%	13.3%
7	Michigan	4	7.6%	-38.6%
8	Washington State	19	1.7%	-4.0%
9	Central Florida	17	1.4%	-0.1%

1.  There's going to be some sound bytes over the coming week about Notre Dame getting left out of the Playoff should the other top teams do well next Saturday.  And while I will grant that it's possible that could happen, I still think it is incredibly unlikely.  So I'll leave my model as it is, and not just because I like the way it looks.

2.  LSU was eliminated by 74 points scored in 7 overtimes, while West Virginia was eliminated by 59 points scored in the normal amount of time.  UCF is the only team left that can be removed from this list, so what you see now is pretty much it.

3.  This still doesn't look that much different.  I still think it's pretty unlikely that the SEC places two teams in the Playoff, but a close title game would mean that either Georgia (.614 SOS - very high) or Alabama (the committee loves them) would have a strong case even with a loss.  So we're not out of the woods yet.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.334
IND	1.000
ACC	0.991
B12	0.358
B10	0.286
P12	0.017
AMER	0.014

4.  One interesting thing (to me, at least) is comparing my model to others.  Specifically, the results of my model almost exactly lines up with ESPN's, but is a little different than 538's.  The main reason for this is that the 538 model treats conference titles as more important than they probably are, which is why they have ND significantly lower than the others.  Other than that, everything is relatively straightforward, so we're all pretty much in agreements as to what will happen.


Week 14 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Alabama	Georgia	66.8%	0.246
Oklahoma	Texas	76.0%	0.043
Clemson	Pitt	95.4%	0.015
Ohio State	Northwestern	86.3%	0.014
Central Florida	Memphis	75.7%	0.003

Championship week gives us one of the best title game matchups in recent memory and a bunch of junk.  The less impactful games like Boise-Fresno, UAB-MTSU, and Marshall-VT are interesting enough to give the week a little depth.  But mostly you should just soak up what little football remains and be thankful for that.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 12

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	97.9%	-0.4%
2	Notre Dame	6	88.9%	16.7%
3	Alabama	1	85.6%	-4.0%
4	Michigan	4	46.2%	-1.1%
5	Georgia	3	39.1%	2.4%
6	Oklahoma	5	23.4%	-2.2%
7	Ohio State	7	7.7%	-1.1%
8	Washington State	14	5.7%	0.4%
9	LSU	15	3.0%	-1.1%
10	Central Florida	21	1.5%	0.4%
11	West Virginia	10	1.0%	-9.7%

1.  The 2018 season has been defined by top-heaviness, and the table above is a prime example of that.  The seven best teams are the seven teams most likely to make the playoff.  I'm really out of things to say at this point because I've said everything that's to be said about these teams.  All that's left at this point is to sit back and watch.

2.  Syracuse was eliminated by the Yankees.  Sorry.

3.  The conference-level odds remain the same as they have for the past several weeks.  Notre Dame's win streak has eaten away at the other conference's odds, but only so much.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.278
ACC	0.979
IND	0.889
B10	0.539
B12	0.244
P12	0.057
AMER	0.015

4.  Most divisions are decided, but the last week still packs a punch.  Of the 8 divisions left, 5 of them stage winner-take-all games.  Add in what is essentially a play-in game in Oklahoma-West Virginia and you have yourself one of the most exciting Thanksgiving weeks possible (from a conference title perspective, at least).

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Pitt	100.0%
AMEE	Central Florida	100.0%
AMEW	Houston	56.0%		Memphis	23.1%
B10E	Michigan	55.6%		Ohio State	44.4%
B10W	Northwestern	100.0%
B12	Texas	88.7%		Oklahoma	63.8%
CUSAE	Florida International	56.2%		Middle Tennessee	32.9%
CUSAW	UAB	100.0%
MACE	Buffalo	90.4%		Ohio	5.8%
MACW	Northern Illinois	100.0%
MWCW	Fresno State	100.0%
MWCM	Boise State	54.8%		Utah State	45.2%
P12N	Washington State	52.8%		Washington	47.2%
P12S	Utah	100.0%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	Alabama	100.0%
SUNE	Appalachian State	80.3%		Troy	19.7%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	49.3%		Arkansas State	42.2%

Week 13 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Ohio State	Michigan	44.2%	0.124
USC	Notre Dame	20.5%	0.061
West Virginia	Oklahoma	42.2%	0.055
Alabama	Auburn	91.2%	0.025
Clemson	South Carolina	94.4%	0.018
Georgia	Georgia Tech	91.2%	0.017
Texas A&M	LSU	56.8%	0.017
Washington State	Washington	52.8%	0.013
South Florida	Central Florida	15.4%	0.002

The last week of the regular season features three top contenders going on the road for major tests, plus a bunch of other traditional rivalries with legitimate stakes.  It's the best weekend of the season...enjoy it.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 11

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	98.25%	1.0%
2	Alabama	1	89.58%	3.0%
3	Notre Dame	7	72.11%	4.5%
4	Michigan	4	47.31%	-3.0%
5	Georgia	3	36.72%	2.0%
6	Oklahoma	5	25.65%	-8.4%
7	West Virginia	9	10.77%	4.8%
8	Ohio State	6	8.79%	2.2%
9	Washington State	17	5.25%	0.7%
10	LSU	12	4.12%	-1.5%
11	Central Florida	24	1.08%	-0.1%
12	Syracuse	35	0.37%	0.0%

1.  Once again, we just saw a weekend where the top teams looked great and there was carnage everywhere else.  At this point, this means that not much has changed from last week.  The computers are a little less in love with Oklahoma at this point, but they're still in decent position to win out and make the Playoff.  Ohio State and West Virginia passed some mild tests and are now close enough to the finish line that their weak SOS is a little less important than it was.  And Clemson is roughly as locked in as a team with three games left can be.

2. We lost NC State, Kentucky, and Boston College in Week 11.  None of them were ever that close to making the Playoff anyway, so that's all I need to say here.

3.  Nobody at the top of the rankings changed much, and so neither did the conference-level odds.  Boring.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.304
ACC	0.986
IND	0.721
B10	0.561
B12	0.364
P12	0.053
AMER	0.011

4. Congrats to three teams we all figured would clinch their divisions with two weeks to go: Clemson, UAB, and Northwestern.  Also congrats to Utah who might be a slight favorite to win the Pac-12, even after losing their QB/RB tandem.  Houston's loss to Temple makes the American West division a three-way scrum, while the Sun Belt remains drunk.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Pitt	83.4%		Virginia	9.2%
AMEE	Central Florida	76.7%		Cincinnati	14.2%
AMEW	Houston	34.9%		Tulane	30.7%
B10E	Michigan	63.3%		Ohio State	36.7%
B10W	Northwestern	100.0%
B12	Oklahoma	78.2%		West Virginia	65.9%
CUSAE	Florida International	50.4%		Middle Tennessee	42.1%
CUSAW	UAB	100.0%
MACE	Buffalo	95.7%		Ohio	3.8%
MACW	Northern Illinois	90.9%		Western Michigan	9.1%
MWCW	Fresno State	92.6%		San Diego State	5.4%
MWCM	Utah State	57.0%		Boise State	43.0%
P12N	Washington	52.1%		Washington State	47.9%
P12S	Utah	65.7%		Arizona State	26.9%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	Alabama	100.0%
SUNE	Appalachian State	74.4%		Troy	25.5%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	41.9%		Arkansas State	38.4%

Week 12 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Syracuse	Notre Dame	23.1%	0.058
Oklahoma State	West Virginia	35.3%	0.019
Clemson	Duke	95.2%	0.016
Michigan	Indiana	95.9%	0.010
Maryland	Ohio State	16.9%	0.007
Washington State	Arizona	82.0%	0.005
Central Florida	Cincinnati	70.0%	0.003
Oklahoma	Kansas	97.8%	0.003
Georgia	Massachusetts	99.3%	0.001
LSU	Rice	99.4%	0.000

One of the worst weeks in recent memory features five games with >95% favorites in the top ten games.  Which means that the other five games (plus Iowa State-Texas, if you get the Longhorn Network) are all we have in the way of consequential games.  If you must dig for extra excitement, Michigan State-Nebraska, Fresno-SDSU, and Texas A&M-UAB might be worth a moment of your time.  But overall, do some yardwork or something (unless you're me, I'll still be watching).