Monday, November 30, 2015

Top Beer of 2015

I wrote this post last year, detailing my favorite beers I had during 2014.  I figured the variety I sampled in San Diego and Vermont and elsewhere would make for a once-in-a-lifetime type year that was worth documenting.  Little did I know that I would be lucky enough to have a just-as-exciting 2015.  Hence, I bring you my favorite beers of this year.

As with last year, I'm instituting a couple of rules to keep the list manageable and informative.  I will only include one beer per brewery, mostly so I don't bore you by describing ten different beers from Cascade.  Additionally, I will only include beers that I first had during the 2015 calendar year.  I feel that this makes for a more interesting and specific read, and I hope you will agree.  Finally, I will include some basic stats (when available) from Beergraphs, which attempts to take the sum of everyone's Untappd check-ins and make some sense from them.  The basic gist is that BAR attempts to be a general value metric, while Style+ looks to index beers by style.  In both cases, higher is better, but do be aware that BAR is a "counting" stat (meaning more check-ins will lead to a higher rating), while Style+ is a rate stat.

One final note:  I added availability to the ranked beers, so you could actually get an idea of how likely you are to see this beer wherever you are.  In case, you know, you want to actually drink a beer.


Runners-Up:

While I could make this list far longer than it is, we all probably have better things to do. Thus, I limited the list to sixteen beers because 1) that's what I did last year and 2) it seemed like a good cut-off between the truly noteworthy and the merely very good.  The latter category of runner-ups is detailed here:

Barrel-Aged Blackout Stout - Great Lakes Brewing Company
Hash Brown India Brown Ale - SweetWater Brewing Company
Ohio Fresh Hop Red IPA - Columbus Brewing Company
Alpha Hive Double IPA - COOP Ale Works
Sanctification - Russian River Brewing Company
Pinedrops IPA - Deschutes Brewery
Hop, Drop 'n Roll - No Da Brewing Company
16-Bit DPA - Tallgrass Brewing Company
Lupulin River - Knee Deep Brewing Company
Breakside IPA - Breakside Brewery
Seven Day Sour - Trinity Brewing Company
Kentucky Breakfast Stout - Founders Brewing Company
Kirsch Gose - Victory Brewing Company
Old Sour Cherry Porter - Rivertown Brewery
Adam - Hair of the Dog Brewing Company
Vehicular Hopicide DIPA - Fifty West Brewing Company
Hop Hunter IPA - Sierra Nevada Brewing Company
Born Yesterday Pale Ale* - Lagunitas Brewing Company

*Let's do a ranking of the fresh/wet hop offerings of 2015, because it changed a lot from last year:

1. Born Yesterday - Lagunitas
2. Harvest Ale - Victory
3. Ohio Fresh Hop - CBC
4. Hop Stalker - Fat Head's
5. Fresh Frog - Hoppin' Frog
6. Chasin' Freshies (Lemondrop) - Deschutes
7. Harvest Ale - Founders (yep, pretty disappointing this year)
8. Southern Hemisphere - Sierra Nevada
9. Broodoo - Three Floyds
10. Fresh Hop - Sun King

This list of runners-up comes from nine different states, contains a wide variety of styles, and even has a couple GABF gold-medal winners.  Not bad at all, but not quite as good as these:


#16- Pataskala Red IPA
Stone Brewing Company (CA) - American IPA - Unlisted
Availability: None, but a lot of their one-off IPAs make it everywhere

Stone could change nothing and still easily remain a well-regarded microbrewery.  As they aren't content to do just that, they are instead one of the very best.  Their new creations in 2015 seemed to take an almost freakishly personal tilt concerning my own particulars.  First, they re-modeled Ruination, the offering that started me down the beer-loving road I am on.  Next, they brewed a Columbus-only (both in hops and in location) IPA to express appreciation of our bid for their second location.  Finally, brewmaster Greg Koch supported his (and my wife's) high school by brewing a special beer to support the band program.  Were any of these beers life-changers?  Not in the strictly beer-drinking sense, no*.  But in terms of expressing the concepts of re-imagination, gratitude, and giving back to the community, they showed how beer-making has become an important and essential part of society at large.

*They were all still really damn good though.  I feel like Stone could just create a new, solid IPA every day if they really wanted to.

Apologies to: Gratitude, Ruination 2.0


#15 - Just Drink it Dummy
Pipeworks Brewing Company (IL) - Imperial Pale Ale - 2.02 BAR - 103 Style+
Availability: Chicago area, whenever they decide to brew more


I had a few interesting hop bombs from Pipeworks this year, but the most memorable was probably this one, as it focused on what I feel is the most underrated hop: Sorachi Ace.  The hop manages to strike a balance between the lemoniness of older English hops and newer fruity hops that makes for a pleasant base to just about any beer.  And of course, Pipeworks did a great job with it, making a clean, simple beer that puts the hop front and center without being obnoxious.


#14 - Gandasa
Burial Beer Company (NC) - Double IPA - Unlisted
Availability: NC-only, and this might have been a one-off

I mentioned this in my post on the Carolinas, but Burial reminded me a lot of Pipeworks, in that they created a number of straightforward beers that focused on the hop(s) at hand.  Everything I had there was fantastic, but the way Gandasa took a hop (Amarillo) that doesn't always work in big DIPAs* and made it soar is worthy of inclusion.

*Por ejemplo, Amarillo Ninja was probably the meh-est beer I've had from Pipeworks

Apologies to: Surf Wax IPA, Thresher, Pipehawk


#13 - Simcoe Sour
Almanac Beer Company (CA) - Sour Ale - Unlisted
Availability: More than just the west coast now (NY, Philly, Chicago), although this particular one is seasonal they seem to be releasing different hops all the time

Almanac is known for being all about the lactobacillus, which makes for some pretty sour beers.  This doesn't work for everyone, most notably my wife, who makes some funny faces when sampling their wares.  While I am a big fan of the sourness, I do occasionally yearn for a little more balance.  Thankfully, their new line of hoppy sours achieves just that, keeping the clean, sour flavor and adding the earthy notes of the hops to the mix.  The result is probably my favorite thing I've had from them yet.  With all the changes they are making as of late, I'm pretty excited to see what comes next.

Apologies to: Farmers Reserve Blueberry


#12 - Roller Blabe
Hoof Hearted Brewing (OH) - Double IPA - 3.8 BAR - 110 Style+
Availability: Ohio, presumably every few months

From a beer perspective, living in Ohio has benefits and drawbacks.  On one hand, there are a lot of breweries around that do interesting things.  Distribution from outside is also quite good, and keeps getting better (we have Maine, Prarie, and Alpine now, and Three Floyds trickles in every now and again).  That said, there aren't necessarily a lot of local breweries striving for or attaining a world-class level of production.  That's why I'm super excited by Hoof Hearted's expansion over the past year.  The diversity and quality of their hoppier offerings is as good as anything in the state (Fathead's and CBC are the only competition).  Of the things I had, Roller Blabe was probably my favorite, as it managed a unique and coherent take on the citrus bomb family of IPAs.  I can't wait to see what's next. 

Apologies to: Musk of the Minotaur, South of Eleven, Dragonsaddle


#11 - Cimmerian Sabertooth Berzerker
Three Floyds Brewing Company (IN) - Double IPA - 2.6 BAR - 102 Style+
Availability: The 3F footprint, periodically


Quick, name a DIPA from Three Floyds.  Now ask the person next to you.  What a great opportunity to make a new friend, talking about beer and such while reading internet posts.  Anyway, I bet you said something different from that other person, because Three Floyds makes a lot of double IPAs.  It's not really amazing that they're all quite good: Three Floyds rarely makes bad beers, so it stands to reason that their DIPAs are not bad. What is amazing is that virtually all of those beers are unique enough to justify their existence.  Cimmerian, one of the breweries' newer entries, reminds me a lot of last year's #2, Fathead's Hop Juju.  While it doesn't quite come together in the same perfect bitter/umami mashup, it's close enough to do just fine in a pinch.  I hope Three Floyds keeps making new DIPAs forever.

Apologies to: Wigsplitter


#10 - Four Play
Upright Brewing Company (OR) - Saison/Farmhouse Ale - 4.4 BAR - 113 Style+
Availability: Unsure, but I have seen Upright in Chicago

Let me start with a controversial statement: Saisons are good.  And now a second proclamation: I don't always love them.  Why the disconnect?  I know I use the word too much, but it comes down to an issue of balance for me.  Some saisons get a little too funky, embracing the horse-blanket aspect of the style head-on, while others shy away so much that I can barely tell what style the beer is.  Thus, my favorites of the style are typically the ones that bring just the right amount of funk.  This is precisely what Upright's regular line of farmhouse ales succeed at.  Four Play is able to take this to another level by adding in the cherries and the wine barrel to make a beer that does a whole bunch of things really well. 

Apologies to: Seven


#9 - Weez
Maine Beer Company (ME) - Black IPA - 3.9 BAR - 106 Style+
Availability: A lot of places now


Black IPAs are usually kind of boring.  It's not that I've had a lot of bad ones, it's just that the ones I've had don't do anything that all of the others do.  So of course, leave it to Maine to make one that turns that expectation on it's head.  Using the same hop bill as their famous IPA, Another One, Weez manages to take a delicate hop nose and pair it with just the right amount of dark malt so as not to lose either one in the marriage.  The result is just another subtle, clean, dynamic beer from one of the best breweries in the country.


#8 - Citrus Ninja Exchange
Westbrook Brewing Company (SC) - Double IPA - 3.8 BAR - 105 Style+
Availability: SC, seasonal


So I had this three different times: Once at the brewery, and then twice from bombers in the weeks that followed.  The first time, it tasted like a perfectly executed Citra bomb.  The second time, it tasted more like what it is; a straightforward DIPA with an infusion of citrus.  The third time, it didn't really come together at all.  So I don't really know what to think.  On one hand, the first two samplings were so good and in such different ways, that I can't really put it lower than this.  On the other hand, this sort of variability shines a light on just how reliant this whole exercise is on the consistency of my tasting ability and memory.  This list is only as good as my mouth and my brain, and I'll be the first to tell you that both of those things lie (or do they...maybe I'm lying now).  That said, everything else indicates that this is indeed a good beer - good ratings, good concept, good brewery - so I'll trust my instincts and say that this beer is good.  Analysis!

Apologies to: Gose, Mexican Cake


#7 - Here Gose Nothing
Destihl Brew Works (IL) - Gose - 3.8 BAR - 105 Style+
Availability: All over the Midwest, all the time


Boy howdy, gose sure became a thing in 2015, didn't it?  I'm not complaining, as a good gose (and that's most of them) has a little bit of everything: saltiness, sourness, and the sweetness of the bready malts.  And they're usually 3-4%, so you won't get as tipsy as you will with...well, everything else on this list.  While I'll happily try anyone's gose, Destihl's version is so good and so readily available that I don't really feel the need to ever buy anything else.  Literally every aspect of this beer is turned up to eleven without sacrificing the balance (there's that word again) that makes a gose great.


#6 - Grapefruit Jungle
Sun King Brewing Company (IN) - American IPA - 6.3 BAR - 114 Style+
Availability: Indiana, seasonal

I try my best to be as objective as possible with lists like this, but I fully admit that I probably overrate Sun King.  The brewery itself is literally a stone's throw from I-70, the road which I travel to get to common destinations like Chicago and Omaha.  As such, Sun King becomes a pleasant diversion during my Friday night drive-a-thons, as well as a welcome horizon during the interminable day of work that precedes such trips (and it smells so good).  But gosh darn it, I really don't think I'm overrating GFJ.  As the name would suggest, this beer explodes with fruity taste, but in a more subtle manner than things like Grapefruit Sculpin.  But then it backs that up with a fantastic bitter aftertaste that coats your tongue like a pine branch (in a good way!).  That perfect "10" in both areas is something I've only had in a handful of beers, so when one of those beers is readily available and within my reach, I'm going to get pretty excited.

Apologies to: Fistful of Hops (all of them, but especially Green), Velour Soccer Mom


#5 - Bone-A-Fide
Boneyard Beer Company (OR) - American Pale Ale - 4.5 BAR - 111 Style+
Availability: West Coast

God, that's a dumb name for a beer....oh well, let's plow ahead.  Last year, I wrote a lot about Citra bombs.  Zombie Dust, pseudo Sue, Abrasive, and others explore the en vogue hop for all that it is worth, and are rightfully revered for it.  That's why it feels like heresy to say that this lesser known fellow might be the best Citra pale I've ever had.  That said, in its presence, it feels like an even bigger heresy to disparage Bone-a-fide in any manner.  I mean, you don't even need to drink it.  Just stick your nose in it and marvel at how that scent is even possible (phrasing).  It has everything that hoppy beer does well, from citrus to flowers to grass and all the things in between.  This beer is magic.

Apologies to: Notorious IPA3


#4 - Apple Brandy Barrel Noir
Prairie Artisan Ales (OK) - Imperial Stout - 6.9 BAR - 109 Style+
Availability: Wherever Prairie is, presumably seasonally

The wife and I spent a cold February evening at a local beer event called the "High Gravity Hullabaloo" where a bunch of local breweries served some of their high-ABV beers in three ounce portions.  It was a solid event, but as I mentioned earlier, the local guys are a little hit or miss when it comes to making top level beer.  The night didn't disappoint, but I unknowingly overshadowed the whole evening by opening this guy upon my return home.  I find that I am generally guaranteed at least a good beer every time I find something from Prairie.  This beer surpassed those base expectations easily.  The barrel-aged dark beers category feels like one that can't be messed up, but still, there are so many potential pitfalls.  The barrel can overwhelm, the alcohol can crush everything else, the flavors can get muddled over time.  None of that came even close to happening with Apple Brandy Barrel Noir.   The barrel, the alcohol, the malt...everything sang in unison for a perfect note that was maintained throughout the whole sip.  Dark beers aren't what I dream about when I dream about beer, but maybe that's because most of them aren't like this one....

Apologies to: Bomb!


#3 - Bourbon County Brand Stout (2014)
Goose Island Beer Company - Imperial Stout - 12.7 BAR - 111 Style+
Availability: Lots of places (but not Ohio!), once a year

....or like this one.  Everything I wrote in the last paragraph applies to the most revered stout in existence, so you can pretty much consider them 3A and 3B with the tie going to the more famous one. 

The story behind this one might be even more interesting than the beer itself.  We drove to Omaha for Thanksgiving, and decided to stop at Des Moines' most famous beer bar, El Bait Shop.  I had glanced at the gigantic tap list a few days earlier, and spied one of the beers on last year's list, Surly's seasonal DIPA Abrasive.  Excited for that, we stopped in and had lunch and a beer.  The thing is, the place seemed unreasonably crowded for 11 AM on a Wednesday.  As it turns out, it was a special BCBS day for the bar, with a keg on tap and a special sale of past year's versions starting at noon.  So I got in line behind 25 other thirty-somethings with beards and spent way more than one should on some old, dusty bottles of beer.  I guess this means the lesson is to never try, and awesome things will just occasionally fall into your lap. 


#2 - White Angel
Wicked Weed Brewing Company (NC) - Sour Ale - 3.9 BAR - 109 Style+
Availability: NC, not sure if this was a one-off or not


So #4 on this list (and #3 to a degree) was all subtle with the barrel, which was fine for its time and place.  But #2 is not that time and place.  We need a beer that is unapologetic about its origins, and won't let you forget about it for a second.  Even when you are simply in the vicinity of this beer, you will be consumed by its presence, its smell.  White Angel is that beer.  When I checked it in on Untappd, I called the experience "a bottle of wine hitting you in the face."  In the sober light of day, I still consider that a fair descriptor.  In reality, White Angel is the same idea as Apple Brandy Barrel Noir: A barrel-aged beer that brings all of its components (grapes, wine barrel, sour ale) together for a perfect and persistent note.  It's just one that does everything a little bit better, a little bit more, and a good deal bit brighter than the former.

Apologies to: Black Angel, Freak of Nature DIPA


#1 - Kriek Ale (2011)
Cascade Brewing Company (OR) - Sour Ale - 5.4 BAR - 109 Style+
Availability: West Coast, but I did see Cascade bottles in NC



So how do we top that?  Let's go back to the subtler side of things.  Except instead of one perfect note of flavor, let's add some layers to the mix.  We'll have the hint of oak from the years in the barrel.  Then the sweetness of the cherries.  And finally the sourness of the lacto.  We'll put them all together such that they can play off of each other and bounce around such that each sip is a slightly different window into the beer.  Yeah, that's it.  That's probably the best thing I've ever had.  Nicely done.

Apologies to: Apricot, Strawberry, Blackcap Raspberry

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 13

Quick post this week on the account of travel.  Rankings:

Rank Team FPI Rank CHAMP Prob POFF Prob Change
1 Clemson 6 17.75% 74.30% -2.7%
2 Iowa 26 5.10% 65.95% 12.4%
3 Oklahoma 1 24.73% 52.58% 10.8%
4 Ohio State 3 17.73% 52.58% 28.7%
5 Alabama 2 15.83% 42.21% 6.2%
6 Michigan State 14 5.89% 36.21% 4.6%
7 North Carolina 15 4.18% 26.09% 7.5%
8 Notre Dame 9 1.57% 7.55% -22.2%
9 Oklahoma State 17 0.88% 7.55% -17.2%
10 Northwestern 53 0.15% 7.55% 2.8%
11 Texas Christian 7 1.80% 7.55% 3.5%
12 Florida State 10 1.57% 7.55% 3.5%
13 Baylor 4 2.28% 6.97% -25.4%
14 Stanford 11 0.70% 3.63% 0.8%
15 Florida 23 0.17% 1.71% -11.2%

1. Saying goodbye this week is one team: Michigan.  Thanks to a fairly "normal" final couple of weeks, we'll likely end up with 13-15 teams in the final ranking, which is more than I expected a couple of weeks ago.

2. As I said last week, it's unlikely that the Big Ten gets two teams in, but if someone's going to do it, it's them.  This weeks conference ratings reflect that:

Conference Exp Playoff Teams
Big 10 1.623
ACC 1.079
Big 12 0.747
SEC 0.439
Independent 0.076
Pac 12 0.036

3. Our New Champ Watch is on its last legs with Baylor and Oklahoma State both suffering losses that effectively eliminate them from contention.  Iowa now represents the best chance at crowning a new champion with a 13.3% chance between all of the remaining teams.

4. At this point, the simplicity of my model is catching up with it.  All the non-Stanford two-loss teams clearly have no shot against the top teams, but they're all sitting there with the default odds for a team in their bucket (except for the teams with a game remaining).  I'll talk about changes more next week (and next summer), but I'll likely add the following next year:

     A. Other ratings systems (S&P+, Sagarin)
     B. Better conference champ game odds throughout the season
     C. Some SOS rating (the Alabama-Iowa correction I mentioned earlier)
     D. Some conditional odds based on the number of 0, 1, and 2 loss teams (so a bunch of 10-2 teams with no chance don't show up at ~7%)


Week 14 Preview

Home Away Home Win Prob Playoff Teams Lost
Iowa Michigan State 36.35% 0.204
Clemson North Carolina 58.95% 0.175
Alabama Florida 77.28% 0.071
Stanford USC 47.67% 0.018
Baylor Texas 93.08% 0.005

Unsurprisingly, championship week gives us the two biggest games of the year concerning the playoff.  There isn't much else of note on Saturday, but those matchups should be more than enough to make up for the lack of depth.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 12

As always, explanation here, rankings below, thoughts after.

Rank Team FPI Rank CHAMP Prob POFF Prob Change
1 Clemson 6 20.62% 77.03% 7.2%
2 Iowa 28 4.33% 53.55% -1.3%
3 Oklahoma 1 18.53% 41.73% 11.0%
4 Alabama 3 13.33% 36.02% 4.6%
5 Baylor 2 12.89% 32.37% 12.1%
6 Michigan State 17 4.55% 31.60% 22.6%
7 Notre Dame 8 6.64% 29.75% 1.5%
8 Oklahoma State 14 4.30% 24.78% -15.0%
9 Ohio State 4 7.37% 23.84% -30.1%
10 North Carolina 15 3.01% 18.60% 7.1%
11 Florida 19 1.80% 12.86% -7.1%
12 Northwestern 55 0.11% 4.79% 4.0%
13 Texas Christian 5 1.16% 4.08% -6.6%
14 Florida State 13 0.72% 4.01% 0.9%
15 Stanford 9 0.61% 2.86% 1.0%
16 Michigan 16 0.35% 2.15% 0.9%

1. Even at this late date, there's still a good deal of carnage at the bottom of these rankings.  We say goodbye to Utah, LSU, Houston, and Wisconsin.  Because of two awful calls, the Badgers really shouldn't be in this group, but they probably should have lost to Nebraska last month, so it all evens out.  Northwestern remains easily the worst remaining "contender."  This isn't just an FPI oddity either, as Sagarin and S&P+ both have the Wildcats in the 40s.  One might find reason begrudge Northwestern for their success, but after a couple of hard-luck seasons for Pat Fitzgerald they've earned some good luck.  Just don't use the L-word around their fans.

2. The below chart appears to indicate that the final spot will come down to the SEC champ or Notre Dame, but there's a couple of issues with that.  One, I know my model is underestimating Bama's chances, so the SEC is probably closer to equal footing with the other three conferences than it appears.  Two, the Big Ten still has a lot of chances to knock itself around over the next two weeks.  11-1 Iowa vs. 10-2 Michigan for the conference crown has a reasonable chance of happening, and slightly less crazy things have an even better chance of coming true.

Conference Exp Playoff Teams
Big 10 1.159
Big 12 1.030
ACC 0.996
SEC 0.489
Independent 0.297
Pac 12 0.029

3. TCU lost a game and fell less than a team that won (Florida).  I'm not saying I disagree with that happening, as it's no crime to lose by one on the road against what might be the best team in the country.  It's just interesting that my system seems to recognize that without explicitly knowing that that happened. 

4. Our New Champ Probability went up a touch this past week, to 25.2%.  Baylor makes up over half of this percentage, but CFP standings may dictate that Iowa will represent the best chance for this to actually happen.  Iowa vs. Baylor is actually one of the most interesting possible debates for the final playoff spot.  Both teams are similar in that they're schedules leave something to be desired.  Baylor has a bunch of blowout wins as their argument, while Iowa has the lack of losses to lean on.  If both can win their conferences, this could become an interesting case study for better understanding the committee's way of thinking.


Nebraska Bowl Watch

Nebraska did not play this weekend, and Iowa beat Purdue by the expected number of points, so this doesn't change a whole lot.  Nebraska sits at a 45.9% chance of making a bowl.  There has been some chatter about scenarios where not enough teams make it to 6 wins, which would make a 5-7 Nebraska an attractive option*, but let's not talk about that for now.

*I did it, I used "attractive" and "5-7" in the same sentence.


Week 13 Preview

Home Away Home Win Prob Playoff Teams Lost
Oklahoma State Oklahoma 33.07% 0.152
TCU Baylor 47.94% 0.099
Stanford Notre Dame 56.88% 0.097
Nebraska Iowa 45.85% 0.082
Michigan Ohio State 42.61% 0.063
Florida Florida State 52.73% 0.051
Auburn Alabama 22.38% 0.040
South Carolina Clemson 14.25% 0.036
NC State North Carolina 36.88% 0.034
Michigan State Penn State 79.09% 0.033
Illinois Northwestern 42.93% 0.020

This is an amazing week, no matter which angle you take.  Bedlam is not just the most impactful game of the week, but of the year.  The next five games are all virtual coin flips and will all affect one or more serious playoff contenders.  The next two games see the top two in the actual CFP rankings with stronger than you might think odds of losing (although FPI is a little down on both of those teams compared with the average computer ranking, so its exaggerating the upset odds in all likelihood).  And there are a number of amazing games between non-contenders that will either shape conference races (USC-UCLA, WKU-Marshall, Houston-Navy) or just be a whole lot of fun (Ole Miss-MSU).  Don't interact with your friends or family this weekend, just watch football.  Or watch football with them, I guess...you decide.