My Rankings:
1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Oregon
4. Auburn
5. Stanford
6. LSU
7. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State
9. Nebraska
10. Virginia Tech
11. Alabama
12. Arkansas
13. Oklahoma State
14. Iowa
15. Michigan State
16. Missouri
17. Oklahoma
18. Mississippi State
19. Nevada
20. Utah
21. Arizona
22. Florida
23. San Diego State
24. Northern Illinois
25. South Carolina
This Week's Top 5 Games:
#5 - Oregon 52, California 17 - We've seen this recipe in almost every Oregon game this season: Oregon gets off to a slow start, and then after 50 plays or so, they finally wear down their opponent. Cal is undefeated at home this year, but none of those victories are particularly impressive. With Kevin Riley out, I can't imagine they'll be able to score enough, even if their defense has the game of their lives.
#4 - Alabama 21, Mississippi State 13 - I worry about this pick since Alabama tanked at the end of the season in both 2007 and 2009, but the Tide still has a potential BCS bowl to play for, so I think they'll win this. Mississippi State's offense is still a work in progress, and I think they'll have trouble running the read option against Alabama's front 7.
#3 - Florida 34, South Carolina 17 - Florida's starting to figure out their offense while South Carolina is going through their usual November swoon. If Marcus Lattimore can get on track, then the Gamecocks might have a chance, but I don't think it will be enough.
#2 - TCU 28, San Diego State 21 - Last week's game with Utah was billed as the biggest of TCU's season, but I think this is the real test for them. Not only is there the letdown factor coming off of the big win, but I think the Aztecs are simply a better team than Utah. TCU is operating too well on both sides of the ball to lose this one, but SDSU will make it interesting.
#1 - Georgia 42, Auburn 32 - The oldest rivalry in the south will be the biggest upset of the season. Auburn's defense has been suspect all year, and a rapidly-maturing Aaron Murray will be able to take advantage of it. A win today would be Georgia's fifth straight in this series.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 7-3
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
MLB Awards
The MLB awards will start rolling out this week. Here are my picks. Much like the Heisman committee chooses how many invites to give to New York, I will list as many as I feel like listing. Just like the vote for BBWAA, these awards do not consider the postseason.
AL MVP
1. Josh Hamilton - OF, Rangers
2. Robinson Cano - 2B, Yankees
3. Adrian Beltre - 1B, Red Sox
4. Evan Longoria - 3B, Rays
5. Jose Bautista - OF, Blue Jays
6. Miguel Cabrera - 1B, Tigers
Since Josh Hamilton missed most of September, he ends up winning this award by just a little instead of by a lot. Hamilton hit better than all of these players except for Cabrera, but he gets the nod over Miguel because of his defensive advantage. There were a lot of other great seasons in the AL, but no one dominated quite like Josh Hamilton.
AL Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee - Mariners/Rangers
2. Felix Hernandez - Mariners
3. Jered Weaver - Angels
4. Justin Verlander - Tigers
5. Francisco Liriano - Twins
6. Jon Lester - Red Sox
7. CC Sabathia - Yankees
Part of the reason that this Cy Young race was so contentious this year was that there were so many good candidates. A number of great pitchers such as David Price and Zack Greinke didn't even make it onto my list. The other reason of course, is that we have a fantastic battle between "old stats" and "new stats." CC Sabathia won 21 games in the AL East, while other metrics favor some of the people listed above him on my list (Lee led in FIP, Liriano led in xFIP, and Weaver had the best SIERA). While most sabre-enthusiasts have gotten aboard the Felix train, I pick Cliff Lee, primarily because of this:
28 starts, 212.1 innings, 18 walks
Felix Hernandez may have had the advantage in innings, but Cliff Lee had historically good command. In his month where he supposedly struggled (August), he still struck out more than a batter per inning. I won't be disappointed one bit if Felix wins the award this week, but my vote is for Lee.
AL Rookie
1. Austin Jackson - OF, Tigers
2. Brian Matusz - P, Orioles
3. Neftali Feliz - P, Rangers
Three solid players here, but not a particularly great rookie crop overall. Austin Jackson continues the AL Rookie tradition of having a career year in his rookie year. He'll join Angel Berroa, Ben Grieve, Bobby Crosby and Eric Hinske in that respect. While Feliz was lights out for the Rangers this year. Matusz gets the nod over Feliz for second because he threw more than twice as many innings, and wasn't too bad himself.
NL MVP
1. Joey Votto - 1B, Reds
2. Albert Pujols - 1B, Cardinals
3. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B, Nationals
4. Roy Halladay - P, Phillies
5. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B, Padres
6. Troylos Gonzawitzki - CF/SS, Rockies
If he didn't miss a month and a half in the middle of the season, Tulowitzki might have won this (he didn't dominate quite like Hamilton in the AL, save for his 14 HR in 15 games stretch in early September). Not to worry though; there were plenty of deserving candidates in the NL this year. Joey Votto gets the nod from me with his ridiculous .324/.424/.600 season (.349/.452/.641 on the road!). Ryan Zimmerman continues to be the most underrated player in MLB....once the Nationals win a few more games, he'll get his due.
NL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay - Phillies
2. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals
3. Josh Johnson - Marlins
4. Ubaldo Jimenez - Rockies
This is the one award where there's been little argument. Halladay was dominant this year, pitching in a hitters park with some of his best defenders on the shelf for part of the year.
NL Rookie
1. Jason Heyward - OF, Braves
2. Buster Posey - C, Giants
There were roughly a dozen other rookies of significance, but these two were far above the rest. Heyward gets the nod from me for his ridiculous .393 OBP in spite of being hobbled part of the reason with a thumb injury. Too bad there's no sophomore of the year award for next year....that would be a good race.
AL MVP
1. Josh Hamilton - OF, Rangers
2. Robinson Cano - 2B, Yankees
3. Adrian Beltre - 1B, Red Sox
4. Evan Longoria - 3B, Rays
5. Jose Bautista - OF, Blue Jays
6. Miguel Cabrera - 1B, Tigers
Since Josh Hamilton missed most of September, he ends up winning this award by just a little instead of by a lot. Hamilton hit better than all of these players except for Cabrera, but he gets the nod over Miguel because of his defensive advantage. There were a lot of other great seasons in the AL, but no one dominated quite like Josh Hamilton.
AL Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee - Mariners/Rangers
2. Felix Hernandez - Mariners
3. Jered Weaver - Angels
4. Justin Verlander - Tigers
5. Francisco Liriano - Twins
6. Jon Lester - Red Sox
7. CC Sabathia - Yankees
Part of the reason that this Cy Young race was so contentious this year was that there were so many good candidates. A number of great pitchers such as David Price and Zack Greinke didn't even make it onto my list. The other reason of course, is that we have a fantastic battle between "old stats" and "new stats." CC Sabathia won 21 games in the AL East, while other metrics favor some of the people listed above him on my list (Lee led in FIP, Liriano led in xFIP, and Weaver had the best SIERA). While most sabre-enthusiasts have gotten aboard the Felix train, I pick Cliff Lee, primarily because of this:
28 starts, 212.1 innings, 18 walks
Felix Hernandez may have had the advantage in innings, but Cliff Lee had historically good command. In his month where he supposedly struggled (August), he still struck out more than a batter per inning. I won't be disappointed one bit if Felix wins the award this week, but my vote is for Lee.
AL Rookie
1. Austin Jackson - OF, Tigers
2. Brian Matusz - P, Orioles
3. Neftali Feliz - P, Rangers
Three solid players here, but not a particularly great rookie crop overall. Austin Jackson continues the AL Rookie tradition of having a career year in his rookie year. He'll join Angel Berroa, Ben Grieve, Bobby Crosby and Eric Hinske in that respect. While Feliz was lights out for the Rangers this year. Matusz gets the nod over Feliz for second because he threw more than twice as many innings, and wasn't too bad himself.
NL MVP
1. Joey Votto - 1B, Reds
2. Albert Pujols - 1B, Cardinals
3. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B, Nationals
4. Roy Halladay - P, Phillies
5. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B, Padres
6. Troylos Gonzawitzki - CF/SS, Rockies
If he didn't miss a month and a half in the middle of the season, Tulowitzki might have won this (he didn't dominate quite like Hamilton in the AL, save for his 14 HR in 15 games stretch in early September). Not to worry though; there were plenty of deserving candidates in the NL this year. Joey Votto gets the nod from me with his ridiculous .324/.424/.600 season (.349/.452/.641 on the road!). Ryan Zimmerman continues to be the most underrated player in MLB....once the Nationals win a few more games, he'll get his due.
NL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay - Phillies
2. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals
3. Josh Johnson - Marlins
4. Ubaldo Jimenez - Rockies
This is the one award where there's been little argument. Halladay was dominant this year, pitching in a hitters park with some of his best defenders on the shelf for part of the year.
NL Rookie
1. Jason Heyward - OF, Braves
2. Buster Posey - C, Giants
There were roughly a dozen other rookies of significance, but these two were far above the rest. Heyward gets the nod from me for his ridiculous .393 OBP in spite of being hobbled part of the reason with a thumb injury. Too bad there's no sophomore of the year award for next year....that would be a good race.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
College Footbal: Week 10
My Rankings:
1. Boise State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Auburn
5. Alabama
6. Wisconsin
7. Oklahoma
8. Ohio State
9. Stanford
10. Nebraska
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Virginia Tech
15. Arizona
16. Iowa
17. Michigan State
18. Arkansas
19. South Carolina
20. Oklahoma State
21. Baylor
22. Florida State
23. Mississippi State
24. Oregon State
25. Illinois
This Week's Top 5 Games:
#5 - South Carolina 31, Arkansas 28 - This game seems like a total toss-up. The injuries are piling up for Arkansas in a disappointing season, and South Carolina will probably be looking forwards to the de facto SEC East title game with Florida next week. When in doubt, I'll go with the home team than can run the ball better.
#4 - Stanford 31, Arizona 20 - I like what Arizona has done this year, but this feels like the end of the line for their Rose Bowl hopes. Nick Foles is still uncertain for this game, and Andrew Luck has been rolling. The athleticism of Arizona's defense should keep it interesting, but Stanford should be able to take advantage of all the opportunities they get with Andrew Luck and his underrated group of receivers.
#3 - Oklahoma State 48, Baylor 38 - Baylor's ascent to the top of the Big 12 South has been one of the best stories of the year. However, that doesn't change the fact that their defense has been awful. I still don't have a lot of faith in Oklahoma State, but we know their offense comes to play at home. I think the Cowboys will be able to win an entertaining shootout.
#2 - Alabama 17, LSU 16 - Alabama seems both overrated and underrated at #5. There's a feeling that they should be able to turn it on and simply rout any team in their way, but they also have a few major flaws that most teams haven't been able to take advantage of (lack of big plays on offense, bad secondary). If I could trust LSU to produce a competent passing gameplan coming out of the bye week, then I would pick the upset, but once again I don't think Alabama's competition will be able to muster enough to pull it off.
#1 - TCU 37, Utah 14 - Yeah, I'm still not sold on Utah. You could postulate that last week's 4th quarter against Air Force was mearly a team looking ahead to the big game, but I worry that it's a sign that they're just not ready for this game. If Utah is to keep it closer than this, they'll have to dominate special teams. KR Shaky Smithson gives Utah their best chance to have an advantage over TCU. All that being said, TCU is playing far too focused to let Utah hang around.
Last Week: 4-1
1. Boise State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Auburn
5. Alabama
6. Wisconsin
7. Oklahoma
8. Ohio State
9. Stanford
10. Nebraska
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Virginia Tech
15. Arizona
16. Iowa
17. Michigan State
18. Arkansas
19. South Carolina
20. Oklahoma State
21. Baylor
22. Florida State
23. Mississippi State
24. Oregon State
25. Illinois
This Week's Top 5 Games:
#5 - South Carolina 31, Arkansas 28 - This game seems like a total toss-up. The injuries are piling up for Arkansas in a disappointing season, and South Carolina will probably be looking forwards to the de facto SEC East title game with Florida next week. When in doubt, I'll go with the home team than can run the ball better.
#4 - Stanford 31, Arizona 20 - I like what Arizona has done this year, but this feels like the end of the line for their Rose Bowl hopes. Nick Foles is still uncertain for this game, and Andrew Luck has been rolling. The athleticism of Arizona's defense should keep it interesting, but Stanford should be able to take advantage of all the opportunities they get with Andrew Luck and his underrated group of receivers.
#3 - Oklahoma State 48, Baylor 38 - Baylor's ascent to the top of the Big 12 South has been one of the best stories of the year. However, that doesn't change the fact that their defense has been awful. I still don't have a lot of faith in Oklahoma State, but we know their offense comes to play at home. I think the Cowboys will be able to win an entertaining shootout.
#2 - Alabama 17, LSU 16 - Alabama seems both overrated and underrated at #5. There's a feeling that they should be able to turn it on and simply rout any team in their way, but they also have a few major flaws that most teams haven't been able to take advantage of (lack of big plays on offense, bad secondary). If I could trust LSU to produce a competent passing gameplan coming out of the bye week, then I would pick the upset, but once again I don't think Alabama's competition will be able to muster enough to pull it off.
#1 - TCU 37, Utah 14 - Yeah, I'm still not sold on Utah. You could postulate that last week's 4th quarter against Air Force was mearly a team looking ahead to the big game, but I worry that it's a sign that they're just not ready for this game. If Utah is to keep it closer than this, they'll have to dominate special teams. KR Shaky Smithson gives Utah their best chance to have an advantage over TCU. All that being said, TCU is playing far too focused to let Utah hang around.
Last Week: 4-1
Saturday, October 30, 2010
College Football: Week 9
Every year at about this time, a bunch of college football analysts rag on the computer ratings that make up a third of the BCS ratings. Anything that disagrees with their pristine assessments of who's the best must be flawed somehow. There are some calmer voices out there, such as ESPN's Brad Edwards, but they often get drowned out by the louder ones. While the computer ratings are far from perfect, they definitely have their merit.
It's SSS, dammit! - The computer ratings to date are based on the 7 or 8 games that the teams have played so far. Naturally, strange things are going to happen when you're only using that many data points. The fact that almost half of Oregon's schedule so far has been Washington St., New Mexico and Portland St. is going to hurt them in the computers. Luckily, the ratings as they stand right now don't actually count for anything. Once everyone's played 12 or 13 games, the computer ratings should paint a much clearer and more accurate picture. Obviously, you'll still run into small sample size issues at the end of the season, but there's not really anything we can do about that until we perfect cloning.
Margin of Victory - Another reason Oregon may be lower in the computers than in the human polls is that the BCS ratings don't take margin of victory into account. This may seem counter-intuitive as using margin of victory leads to a better prediction of team success going forwards (Sagarin says this almost word for word on his site, where he has Oregon ranked #1 in his system that includes margin of victory). However, the BCS really only wanted the current iteration of the computer ratings for the purpose of a fancy strength of schedule...you'll remember that there used to be a SOS component in the BCS until 2003. Additionally, margin of victory generally plays a factor in the human polls, and the BCS wanted to avoid double counting (never mind that there are two human polls).
The nature of stats - A sentiment I've heard attributed to Bill James is that a a good statistic should 80% confirm what you know and 20% teach you something new. The reason for this is that computers can obviously keep track of more than we can. For example, most human pollsters have kept Missouri ranked much lower than the computers this year, likely because no one was talking about them before the season, and their non-conference schedule was less than sexy. However, Illinois and San Diego State have had much better years than expected, and thus Missouri has seen a bump in the computers due to those victories. I understand the importance of actually watching games and catching the subtleties that the BCS computer ratings can't catch (for example, Oregon State was a lot better when they had James Rodgers, so Boise and TCU's wins were more legitimate than they will look when OSU finishes 7-5), but we have to acknowledge that the computers simply 'know' more than we do, and can teach us a thing or two.
My Rankings:
1. Boise State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Missouri
5. Auburn
6. Alabama
7. Michigan State
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida State
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. Virginia Tech
16. Nebraska
17. Arizona
18. Iowa
19. Miami (FL)
20. Arkansas
21. South Carolina
22. USC
23. Mississippi State
24. Oklahoma State
25. Baylor
Auburn at #5 probably sticks out the most. I don't think there's a great difference between the teams in the top 5, but Auburn falls at the bottom of that pile for now. They don't have the week to week dominance of Boise, Oregon and TCU, and Missouri's defense is better. Like I said though, it's close, and "Roadblock Saturday" is sure to sort a thing or two out.
Utah at #12 is a bit lower than most human pollsters as well. That's what a #113 strenght of schedule will do to you. I am impressed that they've been dominating almost everyone, but let's see what they do against the rest of their schedule first:
@ Air Force
TCU
@ Notre Dame
@ SDSU (a very good 5-2...3 point loss at Missouri, and questionable loss to BYU)
BYU
So yeah, PLENTY of room for them to move up.
Finally, #24 Oklahoma State is also ranked pretty low. Once they beat someone better than Texas A&M we can talk about moving them up. They'll get a chance this weekend against Kansas St.
This Weekend's Top 5 Games:
#5 - Baylor 24, Texas 21 - While this game feels like the end of the road for Baylor's run to the Big 12 South lead, I don't think we can count on Texas' offense to come through. Even in their big win over Nebraska, they only mustered 271 yards. Baylor's defense obviously isn't as good as Nebraska, but it probably doesn't need to be with Robert Griffin and Jay Finley on offense.
#4 - Auburn 38, Ole Miss 28 - This has been a popular upset pick this week, and while I can see it happening, I don't think Cam Newton will let it happen. The tighter the game, the more he's just kept the ball himself and dominated. Last week's 200+ yards against LSU shows what he can do against a good defense; against Ole Miss it could be even more ridiculous. Yes, Auburn's defense will probably be far from perfect, but I don't think it matters.
#3 - Oregon 41, USC 31 - You can basically copy the Auburn-Ole Miss write-up into this area. Yes, Oregon's lack of defense will probably catch up to them at some point, but I don't think it happens here....too much motivation against USC.
#2 - Missouri 31, Nebraska 23 - I want to pick my Cornhuskers, but I just can't. Missouri matches up well with Nebraska's defense. Nebraska's main strength is causing incompletions (Locker and Gilbert had 25% passing days against UNL), and Missouri's short passing game combined with their ability to run efficiently can effectively neutralize that.
#1 - Iowa 30, Michigan State 21 - The main difference in the seasons of Michigan State and Iowa has been special teams play. Iowa's meltdown in Tucson and missed XP last week were main culprits in their losses, while Michigan State's fake punts have saved them in tight games. However, I think Iowa is the better team on offense and defense, and Michigan State has to be running out of fake punts.
It's SSS, dammit! - The computer ratings to date are based on the 7 or 8 games that the teams have played so far. Naturally, strange things are going to happen when you're only using that many data points. The fact that almost half of Oregon's schedule so far has been Washington St., New Mexico and Portland St. is going to hurt them in the computers. Luckily, the ratings as they stand right now don't actually count for anything. Once everyone's played 12 or 13 games, the computer ratings should paint a much clearer and more accurate picture. Obviously, you'll still run into small sample size issues at the end of the season, but there's not really anything we can do about that until we perfect cloning.
Margin of Victory - Another reason Oregon may be lower in the computers than in the human polls is that the BCS ratings don't take margin of victory into account. This may seem counter-intuitive as using margin of victory leads to a better prediction of team success going forwards (Sagarin says this almost word for word on his site, where he has Oregon ranked #1 in his system that includes margin of victory). However, the BCS really only wanted the current iteration of the computer ratings for the purpose of a fancy strength of schedule...you'll remember that there used to be a SOS component in the BCS until 2003. Additionally, margin of victory generally plays a factor in the human polls, and the BCS wanted to avoid double counting (never mind that there are two human polls).
The nature of stats - A sentiment I've heard attributed to Bill James is that a a good statistic should 80% confirm what you know and 20% teach you something new. The reason for this is that computers can obviously keep track of more than we can. For example, most human pollsters have kept Missouri ranked much lower than the computers this year, likely because no one was talking about them before the season, and their non-conference schedule was less than sexy. However, Illinois and San Diego State have had much better years than expected, and thus Missouri has seen a bump in the computers due to those victories. I understand the importance of actually watching games and catching the subtleties that the BCS computer ratings can't catch (for example, Oregon State was a lot better when they had James Rodgers, so Boise and TCU's wins were more legitimate than they will look when OSU finishes 7-5), but we have to acknowledge that the computers simply 'know' more than we do, and can teach us a thing or two.
My Rankings:
1. Boise State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Missouri
5. Auburn
6. Alabama
7. Michigan State
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida State
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. Virginia Tech
16. Nebraska
17. Arizona
18. Iowa
19. Miami (FL)
20. Arkansas
21. South Carolina
22. USC
23. Mississippi State
24. Oklahoma State
25. Baylor
Auburn at #5 probably sticks out the most. I don't think there's a great difference between the teams in the top 5, but Auburn falls at the bottom of that pile for now. They don't have the week to week dominance of Boise, Oregon and TCU, and Missouri's defense is better. Like I said though, it's close, and "Roadblock Saturday" is sure to sort a thing or two out.
Utah at #12 is a bit lower than most human pollsters as well. That's what a #113 strenght of schedule will do to you. I am impressed that they've been dominating almost everyone, but let's see what they do against the rest of their schedule first:
@ Air Force
TCU
@ Notre Dame
@ SDSU (a very good 5-2...3 point loss at Missouri, and questionable loss to BYU)
BYU
So yeah, PLENTY of room for them to move up.
Finally, #24 Oklahoma State is also ranked pretty low. Once they beat someone better than Texas A&M we can talk about moving them up. They'll get a chance this weekend against Kansas St.
This Weekend's Top 5 Games:
#5 - Baylor 24, Texas 21 - While this game feels like the end of the road for Baylor's run to the Big 12 South lead, I don't think we can count on Texas' offense to come through. Even in their big win over Nebraska, they only mustered 271 yards. Baylor's defense obviously isn't as good as Nebraska, but it probably doesn't need to be with Robert Griffin and Jay Finley on offense.
#4 - Auburn 38, Ole Miss 28 - This has been a popular upset pick this week, and while I can see it happening, I don't think Cam Newton will let it happen. The tighter the game, the more he's just kept the ball himself and dominated. Last week's 200+ yards against LSU shows what he can do against a good defense; against Ole Miss it could be even more ridiculous. Yes, Auburn's defense will probably be far from perfect, but I don't think it matters.
#3 - Oregon 41, USC 31 - You can basically copy the Auburn-Ole Miss write-up into this area. Yes, Oregon's lack of defense will probably catch up to them at some point, but I don't think it happens here....too much motivation against USC.
#2 - Missouri 31, Nebraska 23 - I want to pick my Cornhuskers, but I just can't. Missouri matches up well with Nebraska's defense. Nebraska's main strength is causing incompletions (Locker and Gilbert had 25% passing days against UNL), and Missouri's short passing game combined with their ability to run efficiently can effectively neutralize that.
#1 - Iowa 30, Michigan State 21 - The main difference in the seasons of Michigan State and Iowa has been special teams play. Iowa's meltdown in Tucson and missed XP last week were main culprits in their losses, while Michigan State's fake punts have saved them in tight games. However, I think Iowa is the better team on offense and defense, and Michigan State has to be running out of fake punts.
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