| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 82.03% | 0.4% |
| 2 | Clemson | 5 | 66.74% | 0.5% |
| 3 | Alabama | 2 | 47.02% | -2.2% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 3 | 42.61% | -3.8% |
| 5 | LSU | 4 | 33.97% | 7.8% |
| 6 | Georgia | 6 | 30.95% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Penn State | 7 | 30.28% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 8 | 19.80% | 9.1% |
| 9 | Oregon | 10 | 11.76% | 3.4% |
| 10 | Florida | 12 | 11.61% | 5.3% |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 11 | 9.45% | 3.9% |
| 12 | Auburn | 9 | 7.05% | -17.6% |
| 13 | Wake Forest | 48 | 1.78% | -0.4% |
| 14 | Baylor | 24 | 1.10% | 1.0% |
| 15 | Michigan | 14 | 0.82% | 0.5% |
| 16 | Utah | 21 | 0.68% | -0.3% |
| 17 | Texas | 18 | 0.57% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Iowa | 20 | 0.40% | -1.3% |
| 19 | Washington | 17 | 0.31% | -6.0% |
| 20 | Minnesota | 35 | 0.25% | 0.1% |
| 21 | Virginia | 38 | 0.24% | 0.1% |
| 22 | Boise State | 34 | 0.14% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Michigan State | 15 | 0.13% | -0.1% |
| 24 | Arizona State | 33 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Memphis | 30 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 26 | SMU | 40 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Pitt | 55 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Iowa State | 19 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Oklahoma State | 23 | 0.02% | -0.4% |
| 30 | California | 46 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Syracuse | 58 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Appalachian State | 54 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 33 | USC | 25 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Florida State | 39 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Texas A&M | 16 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Arizona | 49 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Duke | 41 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 38 | Louisville | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Indiana | 42 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Washington State | 29 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Mississippi State | 26 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Kansas State | 37 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 43 | TCU | 28 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 44 | North Carolina State | 66 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Nebraska | 52 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Texas Tech | 43 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Virginia Tech | 74 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Maryland | 36 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Colorado | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 50 | West Virginia | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Once again, there isn't much movement at the top. The parity of 2019 is not like the parity of past years - there is no Bama-Clemson domination of the top two slots. Instead, this year's flavor is that there are 12 good teams, and they are by far the 12 teams most likely to make the Playoff. The good news about this is that it will give us more chances to see the top teams lose, which if you skip to the end of this post you will see might start happening very, very soon.
The one "interesting" thing from the top of the rankings is that Clemson has dropped to fifth in the computer ratings while remaining the second-most likely Playoff participant. This is almost entirely because they have a 56% chance of winning out, which is almost entirely because the ACC is garbage. Per the computers, the second best team in the conference is Miami who is a) ranked only 32nd, and b) just spotted the awful Hokies a 28 point lead in an eventual home upset. Put another way, erstwhile conference foe Maryland would be the third "best" team in the league this year. Not good!
I wanted to note the reason for ND's "surge" from 5% to 9% this week. It wasn't because of the big win over Bowling Green....that level of dominance was roughly what we expected given how bad the Falcons are. Rather, almost everyone on ND's schedule had a good week, with teams like Stanford and Virginia Tech pulling off big upsets. This had the effect of boosting ND's SOS from a pitiful .506 to a cromulent .520, which would make an 11-1 Irish a slightly more palatable option for the committee.
2. The following teams have no good playoff ideas: Miami, Boston College, and Illinois.
3. The conference races remain fun. Cincinnati is easily the favorite to win the American, which is not a sentence that would have made sense 14 months ago. The Big 12 is largely a four-horse race now, with Baylor (40%) and Iowa State (17%) bringing up the rear. Hawaii and Boise play this upcoming weekend in a potential conference title preview. And Arizona leads the Pac 12 South at the moment, but my very mean computer has them as only the fourth-most likely to win the division (Arizona State ekes them out 10% to 8%).
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 96.4% | Wake Forest | 1.8% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 50.4% | North Carolina | 20.8% | |
| AMEE | Cincinnati | 70.0% | Central Florida | 26.7% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 39.6% | SMU | 36.0% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 80.6% | Penn State | 16.8% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 78.5% | Iowa | 13.0% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 90.5% | Texas | 42.5% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 57.1% | Western Kentucky | 25.7% | |
| CUSAW | North Texas | 42.0% | Louisiana Tech | 25.8% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 60.0% | Miami (OH) | 28.0% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 71.0% | Western Michigan | 15.7% | |
| MWCW | Hawaii | 40.9% | Fresno State | 29.0% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 61.9% | Utah State | 28.0% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 90.1% | Washington | 7.8% | |
| P12S | Utah | 43.0% | USC | 36.8% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 71.3% | Florida | 28.0% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 71.6% | LSU | 22.6% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 87.4% | Georgia State | 4.5% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 77.6% | Arkansas State | 17.5% |
Week 7 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| LSU | Florida | 74.3% | 0.058 |
| Iowa | Penn State | 31.3% | 0.033 |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 21.1% | 0.032 |
| Texas A&M | Alabama | 15.7% | 0.025 |
| Clemson | Florida State | 92.8% | 0.016 |
| Wisconsin | Michigan State | 77.6% | 0.016 |
| Georgia | South Carolina | 89.0% | 0.011 |
| Notre Dame | USC | 80.8% | 0.009 |
| Oregon | Colorado | 92.8% | 0.004 |
| Wake Forest | Louisville | 67.0% | 0.002 |
The first six weeks of the season have been fine, but there was only one really deep week (Week Three). That changes now. Everyone is playing conference opponents and all of the good team are finally getting into the meat of the schedule. This week is particularly good as each time slot has at least two of the top eight games on this list. We also get a potentially important Virginia-Miami game on Friday and Washington traveling to Arizona for #pac12afterdark. Not bad.
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