Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 9

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	96.61%	6.2%
2	Alabama	1	80.17%	-6.3%
3	Notre Dame	9	59.88%	2.4%
4	Georgia	3	35.38%	15.5%
5	Michigan	5	32.97%	-0.7%
6	Oklahoma	4	29.86%	-0.3%
7	LSU	10	18.86%	0.3%
8	Ohio State	6	10.25%	2.3%
9	Florida	15	8.35%	-3.7%
10	Kentucky	29	6.27%	3.7%
11	Washington State	21	5.09%	3.2%
12	West Virginia	13	4.70%	1.9%
13	Utah	11	4.01%	1.8%
14	Penn State	7	2.20%	0.7%
15	North Carolina State	35	2.17%	-10.8%
16	Iowa	12	1.42%	-5.3%
17	Central Florida	25	0.94%	-0.1%
18	Syracuse	41	0.39%	0.2%
19	Texas	24	0.23%	-2.3%
20	Boston College	34	0.21%	0.2%
21	Virginia	48	0.03%	0.0%

1.  A weird weekend didn't change much for the contenders.  Georgia passed a test and jumped as a result - otherwise all we see are small adjustments.  The only other massive change comes from NC State losing, which means they're no longer messing up my model.  Good.

2.  The weekend was mostly kind to the top teams, but was absolutely brutal to two-loss power conference teams.  Washington, Texas A&M, Stanford, Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Duke, Virginia Tech, Colorado, South Florida, and Oregon were all eliminated from the fringes of playoff contention.  Washington is the first legitimate contender to be eliminated, as they remain 8th in the aggregate ratings.  Also, a 10-2 Texas A&M would have been a fascinating test case for the committee, but unfortunately the Aggies weren't quite good enough in Jimbo Fisher's first year.

3.  Half the top ten is SEC teams, hence their dominance here.  Their chance of getting two teams in the playoff will likely go down next week, especially if Alabama wins at LSU.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.490
ACC	0.994
IND	0.599
B10	0.468
B12	0.348
P12	0.091
AMER	0.009

4.  Utah, Virginia, and Northwestern all had amazing weeks, as they all won and all of their fellow divisional contenders lost.  The Big Ten West will likely come down to the Iowa-Northwestern winner, but Wisconsin and Purdue still have about an 8% chance each.  The Pac 12 North will almost certainly come down to the Apple Cup on Thanksgiving Friday.  West Virginia (40%) and Iowa State (23%) are still strong contenders for the Big 12 title game.  And Pitt is still at 9% to win the ACC Coastal because nothing matters anymore.  The Sun Belt is drunk.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	97.3%		Boston College	2.6%
ACCC	Virginia	46.4%		Virginia Tech	27.2%
AMEE	Central Florida	68.9%		Temple	16.4%
AMEW	Houston	93.6%		Tulane	2.9%
B10E	Michigan	64.1%		Ohio State	32.7%
B10W	Northwestern	46.5%		Iowa	38.3%
B12	Oklahoma	80.2%		Texas	44.3%
CUSAE	Florida International	56.7%		Marshall	24.0%
CUSAW	UAB	91.8%		Louisiana Tech	6.8%
MACE	Buffalo	70.7%		Ohio	17.9%
MACW	Northern Illinois	49.2%		Western Michigan	34.9%
MWCW	Fresno State	91.2%		San Diego State	8.1%
MWCM	Utah State	71.2%		Boise State	28.8%
P12N	Washington State	47.6%		Washington	44.5%
P12S	Utah	85.4%		USC	6.7%
SECE	Georgia	76.6%		Kentucky	20.9%
SECW	Alabama	88.3%		LSU	11.4%
SUNE	Georgia Southern	60.9%		Appalachian State	21.9%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.6%		Arkansas State	27.7%

Week 10 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
LSU	Alabama	20.3%	0.129
Michigan	Penn State	66.4%	0.070
Kentucky	Georgia	21.7%	0.063
Northwestern	Notre Dame	26.6%	0.053
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	24.7%	0.037
Florida	Missouri	66.6%	0.028
Texas	West Virginia	46.1%	0.012
Arizona State	Utah	28.6%	0.011
Purdue	Iowa	44.9%	0.006
North Carolina State	Florida State	74.2%	0.006

The best weekend of the year has insane quality and depth.  Basically half the good teams go on the road as touchdown favorites.  Texas-West Virginia will determine the Sooners' main competition in the Big 12.  UCF-Temple will possibly decide the American.  And we get the most important Virginia-Pitt game ever on Friday night.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 8

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	90.39%	4.9%
2	Alabama	1	86.47%	7.5%
3	Notre Dame	9	57.44%	1.2%
4	Michigan	3	33.66%	15.7%
5	Oklahoma	4	30.14%	7.5%
6	Georgia	5	19.89%	0.8%
7	LSU	10	18.60%	6.5%
8	North Carolina State	31	13.01%	-4.1%
9	Florida	11	12.07%	-0.8%
10	Ohio State	6	7.97%	-40.8%
11	Iowa	12	6.71%	2.9%
12	Washington	8	3.63%	0.6%
13	Texas A&M	17	3.14%	0.7%
14	West Virginia	20	2.81%	0.1%
15	Kentucky	28	2.62%	-0.3%
16	Texas	21	2.55%	-0.8%
17	Utah	14	2.21%	1.2%
18	Washington State	26	1.91%	0.9%
19	Penn State	7	1.53%	-0.9%
20	Central Florida	27	1.03%	0.0%
21	Stanford	25	0.75%	0.4%
22	Miami (FL)	16	0.44%	0.1%
23	Texas Tech	23	0.29%	0.1%
24	Syracuse	43	0.16%	0.1%
25	Wisconsin	13	0.13%	0.1%
26	Oregon	35	0.13%	-0.3%
27	Duke	34	0.11%	-2.1%
28	Virginia Tech	39	0.05%	0.0%
29	Boston College	41	0.05%	0.0%
30	Colorado	48	0.04%	-0.1%
31	Virginia	44	0.04%	0.0%
32	South Florida	66	0.01%	0.0%

1.  This week's standings are as I would expect but for one glaring exception: NC State barely falling after getting pummeled by Clemson.  While I don't think they actually have a 13% chance of making the Playoff, it is at least reasonable upon further examination.  First (and most importantly), their remaining schedule is easy, which gives them a 20% chance of winning out.  This figure is far better than that of most one loss teams, including teams beneath them in the standings such as Florida (3%), Iowa (5%), West Virginia (2%), and Texas (2%).  Second, the carnage of the past several weeks has left a bit of a vacuum at the top, which means that teams with a high probability of finishing with one loss will fill in the void (The Wolfpack's context-free playoff odds are 7% but my adjustment moves them up).  Finally, they're really unlikely to have to play in the ACC title game now.  This actually helps them because 1) they would be a coin flip to take another loss in the game, and 2) being that the Coastal is garbage, it doesn't actually hurt their SOS to not play the game.

2.  Five more teams were eliminated this week as Mississippi State, Cincinnati, USC, Maryland, and Michigan State all lost their first and/or third games.  The Bulldogs are still 15th in the aggregate computer ratings (on account of their defense), while Michigan State and USC were both in the top 20 of my initial playoff odds.  This is all to say that this season is starting to get real.

3.  The ACC cannot be killed, the Big Ten takes a hit, while the Big 12 and Pac 12 make modest gains.  Still nothing much to see here.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.428
ACC	1.043
IND	0.574
B10	0.500
B12	0.358
P12	0.087
AMER	0.010

4.  On the other hand, there's a bunch of fun stuff in the conference title grid.  Michigan is the new favorite in the Big Ten.  UAB has the second best odds of making a title game.  And there's a couple of super-wide-open divisions described in more detail below.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	98.1%		Boston College	0.9%
ACCC	Virginia Tech	42.2%		Miami (FL)	29.3%
AMEE	Central Florida	66.1%		Temple	18.3%
AMEW	Houston	87.4%		Memphis	5.6%
B10E	Michigan	64.6%		Ohio State	33.8%
B10W	Wisconsin	37.7%		Iowa	31.4%
B12	Oklahoma	75.7%		Texas	63.5%
CUSAE	Florida International	44.6%		Marshall	35.1%
CUSAW	UAB	90.4%		Louisiana Tech	4.8%
MACE	Buffalo	77.0%		Miami (OH)	12.9%
MACW	Western Michigan	56.2%		Northern Illinois	39.8%
MWCW	Fresno State	88.2%		San Diego State	11.2%
MWCM	Utah State	72.1%		Boise State	27.8%
P12N	Washington	62.8%		Washington State	18.2%
P12S	Utah	54.0%		USC	32.9%
SECE	Georgia	57.3%		Florida	25.6%
SECW	Alabama	89.7%		LSU	9.7%
SUNE	Appalachian State	75.9%		Georgia Southern	12.8%
SUNW	Arkansas State	61.0%		Louisiana-Lafayette	24.4%

4b.  First, let's check on the Big Ten West, which is officially in a four-way free-for-all.  And it's actually because the teams are all good!  Wisconsin has a tie-breaker over Iowa, but has to go on the road to Penn State, Northwestern, and Purdue over the next four weeks.  Purdue lost a tie-breaker to Northwestern way back in August, but their schedule is favorable the rest of the way.

Team	Division Odds
Wisconsin	37.7%
Iowa	31.4%
Purdue	18.0%
Northwestern	12.9%

4c.  Next up is the American East, where undefeated South Florida has the fourth best odds of winning.  This is pretty simple to explain as 1) they still have to play the other three teams, and 2) they're not that good.

Team	Division Odds
Central Florida	66.1%
Temple	18.3%
Cincinnati	10.0%
South Florida	5.6%

4d.  And finally, we have the Pac 12 South, which is drunk.  Utah is clearly the best team, but their difficult cross-division schedule has already saddled them with losses to both Washington schools.  As a result, everyone still has a chance, however faint. And yes, that includes a UCLA team that began the season 0-5.  Fun!

Team	Division Odds
Utah	54.0%
USC	32.9%
Colorado	8.9%
UCLA	2.1%
Arizona State	1.7%
Arizona	0.3%

Week 9 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Georgia	Florida	68.8%	0.073
Syracuse	North Carolina State	44.9%	0.030
Penn State	Iowa	66.0%	0.027
Florida State	Clemson	8.7%	0.026
Mississippi State	Texas A&M	56.3%	0.018
Stanford	Washington State	56.3%	0.009
Oklahoma	Kansas State	94.4%	0.008
Missouri	Kentucky	59.1%	0.008
Notre Dame	Navy	96.0%	0.008
Oklahoma State	Texas	49.9%	0.006

Another October week with minimal depth and one big game, but there's still enough to keep you interested.  The midday section has both the Cocktail Party and the weirdly good PSU-Iowa rivalry, but all three timeslots have something going on.  The weekdays are nice as well, with App State-Georgia Southern on Thursday and Miami-BC on Friday.