The Bracket...It's Good?
Much was made of the adjustments the committee made to its selection process. Most notably, the information sheets for each team eschewed strict RPI groupings (1-50, 51-100, etc.) for "quadrants." Additionally, some of the advanced stats that reflect team strength more accurately make an appearance as well. While these changes are certainly improvements, so much still depends on the dreaded RPI (and the initial rankings released by the committee did nothing to assuage my fears). In spite of the remaining flaws in the selection process, I think the 2018 bracket is mostly fine. Yes, I would have taken Saint Mary's in lieu of Syracuse and/or St. Bonaventure, and I probably would have shuffled a few of the top seeds around (more on that later). But overall, there are no glaring errors. This is fine.
Mid-Major Report
The committee also did a good job seeding the 12 through 16 lines of the bracket. In all fairness, the mid-majors made it easy by pulling a lot of upsets in their conference tourneys. Below is a summary of what fates befell the best/most notable mid-majors contenders:
| Conference | Top Team(s) (KenPom Rank) | Result |
| West Coast | Gonzaga (8), St Mary's (28) | Won - Zags |
| Mountain West | Nevada (24) | Lost - Aztecs |
| Mo Valley | Loyola Chicago (41) | Won |
| CUSA | MTSU (52), WKU (60), ODU (68) | Lost - Marshall |
| WAC | New Mexico State (55) | Won |
| OVC | Murray State (59) | Won |
| Fun Belt | Louisiana Lafayette (66) | Lost - Georgia State |
| Summit | South Dakota (67), South Dakota St. (75) | Won - Rabbits |
| Big Sky | Montana (71) | Won |
| America East | Vermont (72) | Lost - UMBC |
| MAC | Buffalo (77) | Won |
| SoCon | Greensboro (82), ETSU (92), Furman (93) | Won - Greensboro |
| Horizon | Northern Kentucky (95) | Lost - Wright St |
| Patriot | Bucknell (100) | Won |
| Southland | Stephen F Austin (111) | Won |
| MEAC | Hampton (246) | Lost - NC Central |
| SWAC | Texas Southern (249) | Won |
The carnage of championship fortnight claimed a trio of CUSA contenders as well as one of my favorite mid-major squads, Northern Kentucky. Still, enough good teams made it through such that we have a reasonable chance of some chaos.
Now for the region-by-region breakdown:
EAST
The East contains the best collection of players possible. Villanova's Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges are preposterously talented and experienced. Purdue and Texas Tech are loaded with fun specimens (see below). Landry Shamet (Wichita) and Collin Sexton (Bama) are two of the best NBA point guard prospects in the land. And Jevon Carter (WVU), Chris Chiozza (Florida) and Aaron Holiday (UCLA) are three of the best upperclassmen/team leaders/scorers in the game. It's a shame all these guys can't reach the Final Four, but whoever does will go down as a legend.
Best First-Round Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
There's usually one superb 8-9 matchup every year; here is that game for 2018. This matchup doesn't earn praise because the teams are underseeded gems or anything like that - the Hokies needed late wins against Virginia and Duke to get in the field while Alabama made a run in the SEC tourney. Rather, I'm looking forward to this because of the contrast in styles. Buzz Williams has finally imparted the Marquette ethos into his new team, which means they rely on knockdown shooting to win games. The Tide are the virtual opposite, relying on raw athleticism to shut down their opponents. Basically, there's going to be some blocked jump shots in this game, which is always delightfully awkward.
Best Potential Matchup: Purdue vs. Texas Tech
Keenan Evans is the most underrated player in the country. Vince Edwards is the second-most underrated player in the country. Carsen Edwards is a spark plug. Zhaire Smith is the most freakishly athletic player in Red Raider history. Isaac Haas is a beast. Norense Odiase is my irrational crush of the 2018 season. This would be the most college basketball game possible.
The Pick for San Antonio: Villanova
The Wildcats are the best team and their half of the bracket is manageable. Furthermore, Phil Booth is back from injury and the team appeared to return to form in winning the Big East. Yeah, it would have been nice to see them do their thing against Xavier in the final to get full confirmation that they are back. But don't overthink this.
MIDWEST
It's essentially impossible to get everyone to agree on something sports-related, but I will hold out hope that we can all come together to root against Michigan State this year. Sure, Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, and Miles Bridges is a fun group of players to watch, and it's foolish to think that the utter insignificance of sporting misfortune alone will balance out an institution's moral ledger. But any success that the Spartans enjoy will lead to the further glorification of one of the worst men in the sport, Tom Izzo, and that cannot stand. Whether it be his blind support for leadership in the wake of the Nassar scandal, or the history of poorly-handled incidents associated with his program, it's clear that Izzo lacks the moral capacity to affect needed change within the university. And in case you forgot the definitions of "tone-deaf" or "insensitive," here you go:
So, in lieu of the Spartans, who can we root for in the Midwest? Well there's my least-favorite team in sports, the Kansas Jayhawks. And then there's everyone else's least favorite team, Duke. Luckily, this region also features Auburn and TCU, who are coming off of 17 and 20-year tournament droughts, respectively. So let's root for some new blood.Tom Izzo says Michigan State will be raising a B10 banner tonight. Adds that he "hopes this team has been a bright light during these difficult times."— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 21, 2018
Best First-Round Matchup: Clemson vs. New Mexico State
Nothing stands out as particularly riveting, so we default to the 5-12 matchup. The Aggies have a good chance here because they should be able to win the shot volume battle. New Mexico State crashes the boards hard on both ends, and while Clemson has a good defense, the Tigers don't force a ton of turnovers. Put this all together, and the Aggies should get more opportunities to score than their opponent, which is as good of a basis for an upset bid as you can get.
*Note: Kansas is a relatively week 1-seed (more on this later) and they drew the best 16-seed (Penn), which means there is something like a 10% chance of history happening. So don't ignore that game either.
Best Potential Matchup: Duke vs. Michigan State
I am pro-upset and take no pleasure in reporting this, but this game would be good. Duke has all the Freshmen. Michigan State has all the Sophomores. The Spartans have 2015 Kentucky levels of field goal defense. Duke crashes the offensive glass unlike anyone else in the country. And the first time they played back in November was a near-classic.
The Pick for San Antonio: Duke
The Blue Devils have a clear path to the Sweet Sixteen, and are better than you think (3rd in both Kenpom and BPI). If you wanted to take Michigan State for their depth or Kansas because they're on the other side of the bracket, I couldn't blame you. But I'll ride with the Devil.
SOUTH
If I told you in November that Arizona and Kentucky would be in the same region in March, you would have probably assumed they would be a 1-seed and a 2-seed. Instead, they are set to face off in a 4-5 matchup that would have a record number of NBA scouts in attendance. In front of the talented blue bloods are three of the best defenses in the sport - per Kenpom, Virginia is #1 in defensive efficiency, while Cincinnati and Tennessee are #2 and #4, respectively. Advancing through this bracket will not be pleasant.
Best First-Round Matchup: Creighton vs. Kansas State
I am here for the Marcus Foster revenge game (for those unfamiliar, Foster was kicked off of KSU, and transferred to Creighton where he grew into a legitimate stud). My Bluejays backslid a bit after losing the much-improved Martin Krampelj to this third ACL tear. That said, they couldn't have asked for a better matchup than the Wildcats. Creighton's biggest weakness is the aforementioned shot volume, but so is Kansas State's, so that should be wash. And given that Creighton shoots better than just about anyone, I like them to advance.
Best Potential Matchup: Cincinnati vs. Nevada
Everyone on Nevada is 6'7", athletic, and can score. Everyone on Cincinnati is 6'7" (give or take an inch), athletic, and can defend. Game on.
The Pick for San Antonio: Virginia
I am nervous for the Cavaliers because it's a tough road (although it's finally one that doesn't include their personal road block, Michigan State). That said, they've met virtually every challenge all season and are pretty clearly one of the two best teams in the country. There may not be the same level of NBA talent on this team as in past seasons, but all the pieces fit so well that it's hard not to pick them.
WEST
In recent years, non-traditional 1-seeds have often been considered undeserving of the honor. Sometimes this scorn was justified (2014 Wichita was lucky to go undefeated) and other times it was not (2017 Gonzaga was one of the best teams of the decade). This year's top seed in the West, Xavier, has largely avoided that sort of talk. But per Kenpom, Xavier is actually the lowest-rated 1-seed of the past 17 seasons (and, as alluded to above, Kansas isn't much better). Here's a chart showing those two teams alongside the previous ten lowest-rated 1-seeds, their pre-tourney ratings, and their (poor) tourney results:
| Season | Team | Rating | Kenpom Rank | Result |
| 2018 | Xavier | 21.69 | 14 | ??? |
| 2006 | Memphis | 22.30 | 10 | Lost - Elite Eight |
| 2005 | Washington | 22.68 | 14 | Lost - Sweet Sixteen |
| 2016 | Oregon | 22.78 | 13 | Lost - Final Four |
| 2004 | Stanford | 23.06 | 12 | Lost - Round of 32 |
| 2018 | Kansas | 23.24 | 9 | ??? |
| 2003 | Texas | 23.39 | 9 | Lost - Final Four |
| 2003 | Oklahoma | 23.49 | 8 | Lost - Elite Eight |
| 2004 | Kentucky | 24.63 | 9 | Lost - Round of 32 |
| 2010 | Kentucky | 24.91 | 8 | Lost - Elite Eight |
| 2014 | Wichita St. | 25.18 | 8 | Lost - Round of 32 |
| 2009 | Louisville | 25.37 | 6 | Lost - Elite Eight |
To caveat: The margin of error in this (or any) rating system is such that this doesn't definitively mean they're the worst 1-seed of the Kenpom era. But at the same time, other rating systems largely agree that they are subpar for the top line (BPI: 13th, Sagarin: 11th, LRMC: 11th). With a trio of legitimate challengers in UNC, Michigan, and Gonzaga, this bracket is pretty clearly the most wide-open of the bunch.
Best First-Round Matchup: Ohio State vs. South Dakota State
I am not sure how Ohio State will try to guard Mike Daum, but they will be at best, minimally successful. I am sure that South Dakota State will be unable to guard Keita Bates-Diop. First player to 30 wins.
Best Potential Matchup: Michigan vs. North Carolina
Based on the tendencies of the coaches in this game, you might expect all-offense, all the time. But all of Michigan's best players from the 2017 squad graduated and/or left, so they decided to turn into a defensive-oriented team because why not. Furthermore, their excellent defense is comprised of being pretty good at everything, so I don't know if there is an obvious point of attack for the Tar Heels to manipulate. So it should be fun to see Joel Berry and Luke Maye use their status as wily veterans to try to figure it out.
The Pick for San Antonio: North Carolina
If there was a really exciting 7-seed or something I would go with that. But there isn't so I will stick with the chalk. This is the one that I will probably change ten times before Saturday.
FINAL FOUR
I know the narrative for this season was that there were no great teams, but I disagree. I think two teams separated themselves from the pack a bit, and I like them both enough to pick them all the way to the title game. So I will go with Villanova over Virginia.
As for my dream pick, I only have one team in the tournament this year. While there are some teams I could also root for to reach the title game (Purdue, Texas Tech, TCU), I'll go in a different direction and root for Creighton to humiliate Kansas on national television. Hell yeah.
