College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 4

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	76.57%	12.5%
2	Alabama	2	67.07%	4.0%
3	Oklahoma	4	43.47%	-15.2%
4	Michigan	7	34.97%	5.0%
5	Notre Dame	13	30.31%	22.4%
6	Oregon	12	26.54%	-5.0%
7	Penn State	9	22.33%	-5.2%
8	Ohio State	3	17.77%	1.0%
9	Ole Miss	8	15.24%	2.7%
10	Florida	6	10.62%	2.0%
11	Iowa	17	8.99%	-5.9%
12	Michigan State	24	6.29%	3.2%
13	Arkansas	16	5.24%	4.3%
14	Clemson	5	4.74%	-15.4%
15	Wake Forest	37	3.23%	2.9%
16	Baylor	26	3.12%	2.2%
17	UCLA	19	3.04%	2.3%
18	North Carolina State	23	3.02%	2.3%
19	Texas	10	2.89%	1.7%
20	Pitt	18	2.11%	1.8%
21	Maryland	32	2.10%	1.7%
22	Boston College	45	1.73%	1.1%
23	Oklahoma State	36	1.54%	1.2%
24	Texas A&M	15	1.29%	-12.8%
25	Kentucky	48	1.27%	1.0%
26	Cincinnati	14	0.61%	0.1%
27	Arizona State	27	0.54%	0.4%
28	Oregon State	47	0.40%	0.4%
29	Rutgers	42	0.35%	0.2%
30	Virginia Tech	41	0.32%	-1.3%
31	Coastal Carolina	28	0.26%	0.1%
32	Iowa State	11	0.22%	-1.2%
33	North Carolina	21	0.20%	-6.7%
34	LSU	25	0.20%	0.1%
35	Wisconsin	22	0.17%	-3.4%
36	Auburn	20	0.16%	-0.7%
37	SMU	31	0.15%	0.1%
38	Louisville	61	0.12%	0.1%
39	UTSA	67	0.12%	0.1%
40	Miami (FL)	30	0.10%	0.1%
41	BYU	54	0.08%	0.0%
42	Kansas State	51	0.07%	-0.5%
43	Washington	35	0.07%	0.0%
44	TCU	40	0.06%	-0.7%
45	West Virginia	29	0.04%	0.0%
46	Utah	39	0.04%	0.0%
47	Texas Tech	57	0.04%	-0.3%
48	Purdue	52	0.04%	0.0%
49	USC	38	0.04%	-1.8%
50	Army	66	0.03%	0.0%
51	San Diego State	69	0.03%	0.0%
52	Virginia	55	0.01%	-0.4%
53	Syracuse	74	0.01%	0.0%
54	Mississippi State	33	0.01%	-0.1%
55	Wyoming	83	0.01%	0.0%
56	Georgia Tech	50	0.00%	0.0%
57	Tennessee	49	0.00%	0.0%
58	South Carolina	75	0.00%	0.0%
59	Stanford	68	0.00%	0.0%
60	Duke	78	0.00%	0.0%
61	Minnesota	62	0.00%	-0.2%
62	Missouri	60	0.00%	0.0%
63	Indiana	58	0.00%	0.0%
64	Northwestern	76	0.00%	0.0%
65	South Alabama	107	0.00%	0.0%

One month in, the quintet of teams atop the original rankings have gone in very different directions.  Bama and Georgia have looked every bit the part of title contenders and have separated from the pack accordingly (#2 Bama is nearly 6 points clear of #3 OSU in the computer ratings).  Oklahoma is still unbeaten, but looks significantly more vulnerable than originally thought.  Conversely, while Ohio State has taken a loss, they might have the pieces to put together a run.  And then there's Clemson, which I will damn with the faintest of praise by noting that they are the most likely team to make the Playoff from the ACC.

Which thing would you have thought more likely at the start of the season: Michigan being in the top four of the Playoff odds by the end of September, or Pitt simultaneously losing to Western Michigan and earning the second-highest computer rating in the ACC?  Trick question it is both.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	42.5%		North Carolina State	36.5%
ACCC	Pitt	38.4%		Virginia Tech	22.5%
AMER	Cincinnati	79.1%		UCF	38.7%
B10E	Ohio State	46.1%		Michigan	28.7%
B10W	Iowa	59.6%		Wisconsin	23.0%
B12	Oklahoma	80.2%		Texas	47.0%
CUSAE	Marshall	47.8%		Western Kentucky	25.2%
CUSAW	UAB	46.2%		UTSA	42.2%
MACE	Buffalo	49.8%		Kent State	26.1%
MACW	Toledo	48.7%		Western Michigan	34.2%
MWCW	Fresno State	51.8%		San Diego State	28.7%
MWCM	Boise State	72.1%		Wyoming	11.6%
P12N	Oregon	58.6%		Washington	23.9%
P12S	UCLA	43.3%		Arizona State	27.8%
SECE	Georgia	81.1%		Florida	15.9%
SECW	Alabama	79.1%		Ole Miss	11.2%
SUNE	Coastal Carolina	56.7%		Appalachian State	40.7%
SUNW	Louisiana	86.1%		Arkansas State	5.6%

Clemson is still a slight favorite in the ACC, but these are the closest margins we've seen since Florida State was good at football.  Ohio State drops below 50% in what might be the best division in the sport?  UAB-UTSA is starting to look like one of the best under-the-radar races.  And Bama is still the king until otherwise noted...sorry.

Test Simulation of the Week

Week 2 of my new feature is a reminder that reality (or potential reality, at least) is sometimes boring.  Yes, a debate between 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-2 Georgia (and maybe 10-2 Florida?) would be mildly interesting but keep in mind that the prize would be playing Alabama in a semi-final.  Which means the committee should put UTSA in.

Week 5 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Alabama	Ole Miss	82.1%	0.082
Georgia	Arkansas	87.6%	0.047
Notre Dame	Cincinnati	58.4%	0.046
Wisconsin	Michigan	35.5%	0.043
Kansas State	Oklahoma	20.0%	0.029
Stanford	Oregon	23.6%	0.021
Rutgers	Ohio State	21.4%	0.020
Maryland	Iowa	44.8%	0.017
Kentucky	Florida	22.7%	0.015
Clemson	Boston College	85.3%	0.012

There are three ways to look at this weekend, each of which confirm its place as one of the best weekends of the year.  The first is through the Bama-Georgia prism.  These are clearly the two best teams at this point, which means that this season will be defined in part by how they perform the rest of the way.  If one or both is going to lose before Atlanta, this weekend is one of the most likely culprits.  Bama-Ole Miss gets the edge as game of the week because the Rebels appear to have a slightly higher ceiling than Arkansas.

View #2 is that this is a ridiculously good road test weekend for the next level of contenders.  Ohio State, Michigan, Cincinnati, Oregon, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Florida all face a 20% chance or better of losing to an inferior opponent (sorry ND but you know it's true).  The depth and breadth of threats present to this group of teams is unlike anything I can remember in recent history.

Finally, there's just a lot of games, man.  Important games!  The list above doesn't even include a game between 4-0 teams in Oklahoma State-Baylor, a battle for the Pac-12 South in Arizona State-UCLA, a suddenly important (?) Georgia Tech-Pitt matchup, and Oregon State hosting Washington in their bid to steal the North.  Oh and a decent Auburn-LSU game that's somehow only the 20th most-important game of the weekend.  Soak it in folks, October is here.