Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 13

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Ohio State	1	95.1%	1.7%
2	Clemson	2	89.9%	-0.6%
3	LSU	4	84.6%	-1.1%
4	Georgia	5	42.9%	12.3%
5	Oklahoma	7	27.9%	7.3%
6	Utah	11	14.6%	3.4%
7	Penn State	6	9.9%	-9.6%
8	Baylor	19	9.0%	5.3%
9	Alabama	3	9.0%	-1.3%
10	Florida	9	6.8%	-0.8%
11	Notre Dame	14	3.8%	0.7%
12	Minnesota	17	2.3%	-0.6%
13	Michigan	8	2.2%	0.7%
14	Oregon	13	1.3%	-17.7%
15	Wisconsin	12	0.8%	0.0%

1.  Once again we got just one big upset, so things don't change too much.  Penn State is still propped up by a very good SOS, but in reality they would need basically all of the one-loss teams to lose again to make it.  Oklahoma and Utah both find themselves in decent enough shape, but realistically they need something to happen ahead of them.

2.  An eventful week shook out a lot of division winners.  UVA-VT and Minnesota-Wisconsin will decide their divisions this week, while WMU, Memphis, and Utah all face win-and-in scenarios.  And then there's the CUSA which boasts the only division with a three-team race (Southern Miss can still win the West).

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Virginia	63.4%		Virginia Tech	36.6%
AMEE	Cincinnati	100.0%
AMEW	Memphis	77.6%		Navy	22.4%
B10E	Ohio State	100.0%
B10W	Wisconsin	60.6%		Minnesota	39.4%
B12	Oklahoma	100.0%		Baylor	100.0%
CUSAE	Florida Atlantic	83.7%		Marshall	16.3%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	52.2%		UAB	39.3%
MACE	Miami (OH)	100.0%
MACW	Western Michigan	83.4%		Central Michigan	16.6%
MWCW	Hawaii	100.0%
MWCM	Boise State	100.0%
P12N	Oregon	100.0%
P12S	Utah	95.2%		USC	4.8%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	LSU	100.0%
SUNE	Appalachian State	100.0%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	100.0%

Week 14 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Michigan	Ohio State	22.9%	0.089
LSU	Texas A&M	82.8%	0.049
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma	25.0%	0.035
South Carolina	Clemson	7.4%	0.022
Auburn	Alabama	31.9%	0.014
Minnesota	Wisconsin	38.9%	0.010
Florida	Florida State	90.4%	0.007
Georgia Tech	Georgia	2.2%	0.005
Kansas	Baylor	9.8%	0.004
Stanford	Notre Dame	11.3%	0.004
Utah	Colorado	95.1%	0.004
Oregon	Oregon State	93.6%	0.001
Penn State	Rutgers	99.3%	0.001

Rivalry week is good as usual, but with a slightly different flavor.  There isn't really a single big game, but rather a bunch that have some potential to cause chaos.  Also, five of the top six games feature home underdogs which always gets me a little more excited, even when the odds are long.  Finally, the top six games are distributed evenly with two in each of the main Saturday time slots.  Should be fun.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 12

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Ohio State	1	93.08%	-1.7%
2	Clemson	3	90.43%	4.2%
3	LSU	4	85.77%	1.2%
4	Georgia	5	30.55%	13.2%
5	Oklahoma	6	20.57%	2.4%
6	Penn State	7	19.50%	-0.3%
7	Oregon	8	18.99%	-4.5%
8	Utah	13	11.18%	2.4%
9	Alabama	2	10.35%	-2.9%
10	Florida	9	7.59%	1.2%
11	Baylor	21	3.70%	-6.3%
12	Notre Dame	14	3.17%	0.6%
13	Minnesota	19	2.86%	-6.3%
14	Michigan	10	1.45%	0.4%
15	Wisconsin	12	0.81%	-0.8%

1.  A complete lack of high-end upsets means that very little changes this week.  Georgia passes a big test so they climb.  Baylor and Minnesota are no longer undefeated so they both become even longer longshots.  Oregon falls slightly because it's looking more likely that they will have to face a difficult Utah to finish their season, decreasing their odds of finishing 12-1.  And Bama falls a bit not because of the Tua injury (I mean it hurts them in reality, but that part of reality is not incorporated into my model), but because all the other teams got one step closer to finishing 13-0 or 12-1.

2.  Indiana, Wake Forest, and Auburn were all eliminated this week.  Three programs that are all of the same exact quality and import.

3.  Conference races are starting to (mostly) sort out.  Oregon and Georgia both clinched this weekend and LSU just has to beat a putrid Arkansas next week to seal their bid.  Oklahoma and Baylor are all but assured of a re-match for the Big 12 title.  And a number of these top-two teams will face off to possibly decide their divisions in the coming weeks....OSU-PSU, Cincy-Temple, and Boise-USU are this week followed by UVA-VT and Wisconsin-Minnesota after Thanksgiving.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Virginia	65.9%		Virginia Tech	22.5%
AMEE	Cincinnati	91.6%		Temple	6.0%
AMEW	Memphis	60.5%		Navy	23.3%
B10E	Ohio State	84.9%		Penn State	15.1%
B10W	Wisconsin	58.0%		Minnesota	41.9%
B12	Oklahoma	98.2%		Baylor	97.7%
CUSAE	Marshall	67.4%		Florida Atlantic	31.5%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	76.8%		Southern Miss	14.7%
MACE	Miami (OH)	74.1%		Ohio	25.8%
MACW	Western Michigan	72.5%		Central Michigan	22.3%
MWCW	San Diego State	53.8%		Hawaii	45.0%
MWCM	Boise State	77.8%		Utah State	13.2%
P12N	Oregon	100.0%
P12S	Utah	90.4%		USC	9.6%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	LSU	99.8%		Alabama	0.2%
SUNE	Appalachian State	92.5%		Georgia Southern	7.4%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	98.9%		Arkansas State	1.0%

Week 13 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Ohio State	Penn State	85.0%	0.129
Georgia	Texas A&M	80.6%	0.030
Arizona State	Oregon	15.6%	0.015
Oklahoma	TCU	88.1%	0.012
Baylor	Texas	61.5%	0.007
Arizona	Utah	7.6%	0.004
Indiana	Michigan	24.8%	0.004
LSU	Arkansas	98.9%	0.003
Notre Dame	Boston College	92.3%	0.002
Northwestern	Minnesota	12.7%	0.002
Wisconsin	Purdue	94.2%	0.000

As usual, the week before Thanksgiving is not super deep.  But OSU-PSU will be a whole meal itself and there's enough mildly interesting stuff happening elsewhere (including the Group of Five games I mentioned earlier) to make it an above average weekend.