| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 84.93% | 7.4% |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 50.69% | -4.5% |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 6 | 39.72% | 3.8% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 3 | 33.84% | -3.1% |
| 5 | Washington | 5 | 32.11% | 8.8% |
| 6 | Georgia | 11 | 31.11% | 22.2% |
| 7 | Ohio State | 2 | 23.95% | -6.8% |
| 8 | Penn State | 7 | 21.04% | -0.4% |
| 9 | USC | 13 | 19.46% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Michigan | 16 | 12.44% | 0.8% |
| 11 | TCU | 10 | 11.37% | 9.2% |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 12 | 8.44% | 4.7% |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 19 | 3.71% | 2.0% |
| 14 | Miami (FL) | 20 | 3.56% | 1.6% |
| 15 | Central Florida | 31 | 3.39% | 3.2% |
| 16 | Auburn | 14 | 2.77% | 0.4% |
| 17 | Mississippi State | 17 | 2.71% | -16.4% |
| 18 | Florida State | 8 | 2.07% | -16.6% |
| 19 | San Diego State | 49 | 2.04% | 0.8% |
| 20 | LSU | 18 | 1.86% | -0.8% |
| 21 | Washington State | 23 | 1.84% | 0.6% |
| 22 | Duke | 28 | 1.25% | 0.8% |
| 23 | Oklahoma State | 9 | 0.84% | -10.4% |
| 24 | Louisville | 22 | 0.80% | -0.1% |
| 25 | Florida | 26 | 0.61% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Wake Forest | 33 | 0.49% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Stanford | 15 | 0.47% | 0.2% |
| 28 | North Carolina State | 25 | 0.40% | 0.4% |
| 29 | Minnesota | 37 | 0.36% | -0.1% |
| 30 | Oregon | 21 | 0.31% | -4.1% |
| 31 | Memphis | 53 | 0.27% | -0.3% |
| 32 | Tennessee | 36 | 0.16% | -0.2% |
| 33 | Utah | 39 | 0.16% | 0.1% |
| 34 | South Florida | 42 | 0.15% | -0.1% |
| 35 | Iowa | 34 | 0.14% | -0.1% |
| 36 | Texas Tech | 32 | 0.11% | 0.1% |
| 37 | Georgia Tech | 29 | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Kentucky | 50 | 0.08% | -0.1% |
| 39 | Indiana | 45 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 40 | South Carolina | 46 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Vanderbilt | 63 | 0.04% | -0.2% |
| 42 | Texas A&M | 35 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Navy | 65 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 44 | UTSA | 71 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Kansas State | 27 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Northwestern | 40 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Michigan State | 51 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 48 | Colorado | 52 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 49 | UCLA | 30 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 50 | California | 56 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 51 | West Virginia | 41 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Texas | 24 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Virginia | 67 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Maryland | 64 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 55 | Illinois | 89 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Iowa State | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Arizona | 48 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Arkansas | 47 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Purdue | 68 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Syracuse | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Nebraska | 55 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Arizona State | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. The top of the ratings remain relatively predictable. Alabama gains even more ground after a school-record yardage differential against Vandy. Georgia and TCU go up after their big wins. And Ohio State drops a touch as relatively few other top teams lose (making the idea of a one-loss OSU slightly less appealing). Further down, Central Florida leaps to the top of the Group of Five after their drubbing of Maryland. UCF doesn't have the best chance of winning out (that belongs to SDSU and UTSA), but surviving the American unscathed would be a much more relevant badge of honor than anything those other teams could do.
2. The teams leaving the playoff rankings largely represent a surprisingly large underbelly of sadness from the power conferences. North Carolina, Pitt, Missouri, Boston College, Kansas, Rutgers, Houston, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan no longer qualify. As with past weeks, none of these teams had much of a chance. We'll probably start seeing some juicier eliminations (phrasing) as soon as next week.
3. Still not many changes to the conference-level playoff odds, other than the ACC taking a little bit of a hit for Florida State's rough start. The Seminoles' difficult schedule would have made them a lock with one-loss and still formidable with two. Alas, one of the five best programs in the nation that has basically been constantly good for thirty years will probably have to sit this one out. What a shame.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.243 |
| B10 | 0.977 |
| ACC | 0.631 |
| P12 | 0.543 |
| B12 | 0.462 |
| IND | 0.084 |
| AMER | 0.038 |
| MWC | 0.020 |
| CUSA | 0.000 |
4. Similarly, there weren't too many changes in the conference title odds. UCLA and Colorado looked like the main challengers to USC in the South, but they both lost, so the Trojans go over 90% before Green Day even wakes up. The CUSA has just one team with >30% odds in either division, which means I might have to start a 5-7 conference champ watch. And Florida and Georgia pull away from the morass in the East...yawn.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 69.9% | North Carolina State | 15.1% | |
| ACCC | Virginia Tech | 37.3% | Miami (FL) | 31.0% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 53.8% | South Florida | 44.4% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 47.2% | Memphis | 23.9% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 63.3% | Penn State | 28.6% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 90.4% | Minnesota | 4.0% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 82.9% | TCU | 64.6% | |
| CUSAE | Middle Tennessee | 28.4% | Western Kentucky | 24.5% | |
| CUSAW | UTSA | 39.5% | Louisiana Tech | 28.9% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 49.3% | Miami (OH) | 41.6% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 52.1% | Western Michigan | 23.5% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 88.8% | Fresno State | 7.0% | |
| MWCM | Colorado State | 44.6% | Boise State | 31.9% | |
| P12N | Washington | 71.9% | Stanford | 18.6% | |
| P12S | USC | 91.3% | Utah | 2.4% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 65.4% | Florida | 28.9% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 83.7% | Auburn | 10.2% | |
| SUN | Appalachian State | 49.9% | Troy | 27.8% |
Week 5 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Virginia Tech | Clemson | 31.7% | 0.062 |
| Washington State | USC | 41.8% | 0.031 |
| Tennessee | Georgia | 28.2% | 0.030 |
| Wisconsin | Northwestern | 89.5% | 0.014 |
| Auburn | Mississippi State | 63.2% | 0.014 |
| Central Florida | Memphis | 70.0% | 0.012 |
| Alabama | Ole Miss | 96.1% | 0.011 |
| Duke | Miami (FL) | 46.9% | 0.008 |
| Penn State | Indiana | 89.4% | 0.008 |
| Wake Forest | Florida State | 25.8% | 0.007 |
Week 5 isn't particularly deep, but the top games have gained a little shine since the beginning of the season. Mike Leach's best Cougar team catches at home on a Friday after a difficult month for the Trojans. Clemson-Virginia Tech should be a bloodbath. Tennessee can do what it can to try to make the East a three-team race. And there's a one in four chance that Wake Forest will have five games ahead of Florida State in the wins column.
