| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 81.59% | 15.8% |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 66.25% | -10.2% |
| 3 | Alabama | 2 | 49.19% | 0.8% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 3 | 46.39% | 8.0% |
| 5 | Georgia | 5 | 30.97% | -5.1% |
| 6 | Penn State | 7 | 30.20% | 12.8% |
| 7 | LSU | 6 | 26.14% | -3.0% |
| 8 | Auburn | 8 | 24.69% | 8.1% |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 10 | 10.71% | -16.4% |
| 10 | Oregon | 9 | 8.34% | -3.4% |
| 11 | Washington | 13 | 6.35% | 1.0% |
| 12 | Florida | 12 | 6.34% | -1.6% |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 11 | 5.60% | -4.5% |
| 14 | Wake Forest | 43 | 2.17% | -0.2% |
| 15 | Iowa | 19 | 1.66% | 0.3% |
| 16 | Utah | 21 | 0.97% | 0.3% |
| 17 | Texas | 16 | 0.52% | -0.4% |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 22 | 0.42% | 0.1% |
| 19 | Michigan | 15 | 0.36% | 0.1% |
| 20 | Michigan State | 14 | 0.26% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Minnesota | 41 | 0.14% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Virginia | 38 | 0.14% | -0.6% |
| 23 | Boise State | 36 | 0.13% | -0.2% |
| 24 | Baylor | 29 | 0.12% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Duke | 37 | 0.08% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Arizona State | 33 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 27 | SMU | 34 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Kansas State | 31 | 0.03% | -0.7% |
| 29 | TCU | 26 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Memphis | 35 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Miami (FL) | 28 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 32 | California | 48 | 0.01% | -0.5% |
| 33 | USC | 24 | 0.01% | -0.2% |
| 34 | Appalachian State | 53 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Syracuse | 64 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Mississippi State | 25 | 0.01% | -0.3% |
| 37 | Texas A&M | 20 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Iowa State | 23 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 39 | Florida State | 39 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Pitt | 59 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Washington State | 30 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 42 | Indiana | 40 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Arizona | 47 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Maryland | 50 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 45 | Colorado | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 46 | North Carolina State | 66 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 47 | West Virginia | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Nebraska | 44 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Virginia Tech | 84 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Texas Tech | 51 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Boston College | 83 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Louisville | 63 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Illinois | 86 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. In a weekend with an even mix of blowouts and close wins amongst the top teams, almost every significant shift in the Playoffs odds can be explained by the teams' week 5 margin of victory. Ohio State and Penn State won big and climbed up. Clemson and Wisconsin struggled and fell. The only real exception to this was Notre Dame, whose win over a decent Virginia team was roughly as big as it should have been. The Irish's decline is instead because of 1) an ever-weakening strength of schedule and 2) all the other good teams winning, which lessens the chance of an 11-1 team with a weak resume sneaking into the Playoff.
2. A lot of mediocre to bad power conference teams lost their third game this week. Kentucky, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Northwestern, Arkansas, Rutgers, Kansas, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, UAB, and Navy have all disappeared from the Playoff odds. The ugliness of this group of eliminations belies just how orderly of a year 2019 has been as still only three top-40 computer teams (#18 UCF, #27 South Carolina, and #32 Cincinnati) have been eliminated.
3. The conference races are far less orderly. The ACC Coastal is a complete toss-up with Miami (20%) and UNC (16%) still in the thick of it as well. SMU (!) and Hawaii (!!!) now lead their respective divisions. Utah, who is technically tied for last in the standings, is once again the favorite in the Pac 12 South. And this Friday's UCF-Cincy game will likely be the pivotal battle in an otherwise awful American East.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 96.6% | Wake Forest | 2.1% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 34.9% | Duke | 25.8% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 69.0% | Cincinnati | 29.1% | |
| AMEW | SMU | 42.1% | Memphis | 35.1% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 78.3% | Penn State | 18.2% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 69.0% | Iowa | 23.1% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 92.2% | Texas | 48.5% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 58.4% | Marshall | 24.4% | |
| CUSAW | North Texas | 39.2% | Southern Miss | 30.6% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 43.1% | Miami (OH) | 33.5% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 46.6% | Western Michigan | 38.9% | |
| MWCW | Hawaii | 42.5% | Fresno State | 29.3% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 52.2% | Utah State | 37.2% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 69.8% | Washington | 28.9% | |
| P12S | Utah | 43.7% | USC | 36.0% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 76.5% | Florida | 22.3% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 66.4% | LSU | 17.9% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 88.0% | Troy | 7.6% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 60.2% | Arkansas State | 37.2% |
Week 6 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Florida | Auburn | 44.1% | 0.048 |
| Ohio State | Michigan State | 90.6% | 0.027 |
| Tennessee | Georgia | 7.4% | 0.008 |
| LSU | Utah State | 92.7% | 0.006 |
| Stanford | Washington | 18.4% | 0.006 |
| Michigan | Iowa | 58.8% | 0.004 |
| Oregon | California | 90.9% | 0.004 |
| Penn State | Purdue | 96.7% | 0.003 |
| Kansas | Oklahoma | 1.8% | 0.003 |
| Wisconsin | Kent State | 98.3% | 0.001 |
A pretty good top two next week, and then....not a lot. I suppose it might be "interesting" to see if Michigan can continue its rebound against an actually competent team. Or maybe Stanford or Tennessee will finally live up to their potential. And Oregon-Cal could be fun if you like defense and hate points. Worry not, though...the season gets relentlessly exciting after this.
