| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 92.19% | -1.1% |
| 2 | Clemson | 3 | 80.71% | -3.4% |
| 3 | Penn State | 5 | 68.22% | 2.6% |
| 4 | LSU | 4 | 59.87% | -1.9% |
| 5 | Alabama | 2 | 46.07% | -0.7% |
| 6 | Oregon | 8 | 14.32% | 4.5% |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 6 | 11.72% | -0.2% |
| 8 | Georgia | 7 | 9.26% | 4.0% |
| 9 | Utah | 12 | 4.69% | 1.4% |
| 10 | Baylor | 21 | 3.64% | -0.5% |
| 11 | Florida | 13 | 2.77% | -5.0% |
| 12 | Minnesota | 20 | 2.08% | 0.3% |
| 13 | Auburn | 10 | 1.78% | -0.1% |
| 14 | Notre Dame | 15 | 1.09% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Michigan | 11 | 0.73% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 9 | 0.51% | 0.1% |
| 17 | Wake Forest | 42 | 0.25% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Kansas State | 28 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Iowa | 18 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Indiana | 30 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
1. Almost nothing changed this week, largely because most of the good teams didn't play. Oregon's big win puts them in poll position among the one-loss teams, and this doesn't even account for the likelihood that the committee will give them a slight bump for the Juwan Johnson injury. Alabama remains behind the other teams at the top because of 1) a weak SOS and 2) they still have three games against top-ten teams remaining. Once again, don't be surprised if Alabama is 3rd (or lower) on Tuesday night. Obviously, this won't matter because they'll just win out and render everything else irrelevant.
2. SMU, Appalachian State, and Virginia Tech are eliminated. We have no undefeated Group of Five teams left which is funny because I had finally figured out how to incorporate them into my model properly. Oh well.
3. The conference title grid remains spicy. Virginia has tiebreakers over Pitt and UNC so they're in the drivers seat in the Coastal even though they are thoroughly mediocre. Cincy and Memphis now have a decent chance of playing each other back to back weeks for a chance at a major bowl. The MAC West makes no sense and will fully shake out over the course of MACtion (starting with WMU-Ball State this week). Oregon has not actually clinched the North but they would need to lose out while the Beavers win out, which did not happen in any of the 10000 simulations. And finally, Georgia has three challenging games left in the SEC, so they're not out of the woods yet.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 98.6% | Wake Forest | 1.4% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 78.8% | Pitt | 8.8% | |
| AMEE | Cincinnati | 86.5% | Central Florida | 13.2% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 41.7% | Navy | 35.6% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 81.6% | Penn State | 18.4% | |
| B10W | Minnesota | 46.1% | Wisconsin | 42.6% | |
| B12 | Baylor | 85.8% | Oklahoma | 84.3% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 51.2% | Marshall | 45.9% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 66.0% | UAB | 15.3% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 52.4% | Miami (OH) | 43.5% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 34.9% | Ball State | 34.6% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 71.3% | Fresno State | 23.7% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 84.7% | Air Force | 9.4% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 100.0% | Oregon State | 0.0% | |
| P12S | Utah | 91.0% | USC | 7.3% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 87.3% | Florida | 12.5% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 69.5% | LSU | 30.4% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 66.0% | Georgia Southern | 20.8% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 96.9% | Arkansas State | 2.6% |
Week 11 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Alabama | LSU | 70.4% | 0.186 |
| Minnesota | Penn State | 25.4% | 0.063 |
| Oklahoma | Iowa State | 81.4% | 0.011 |
| North Carolina State | Clemson | 3.0% | 0.008 |
| Georgia | Missouri | 85.7% | 0.007 |
| TCU | Baylor | 46.4% | 0.006 |
| Ohio State | Maryland | 99.1% | 0.003 |
| Duke | Notre Dame | 24.1% | 0.003 |
| Wisconsin | Iowa | 76.2% | 0.001 |
| Florida | Vanderbilt | 96.6% | 0.001 |
The game of the year headlines a shallow yet great week. Bama-LSU is going to be as fun as the 9-6 game from 2011, except pointsy. Minnesota will have to face a first-string QB for the first time in conference play (!!!). Iowa State is still the second-best team in the Big 12 per the computers, so the Sooners will have to look sharp to win (they did lose at home to the Cyclones two years ago). And TCU gets a chance to knock of Baylor...please do this, Frogs.
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