Two posts in one day? It's spring break, why not?
Overall thoughts
For the second straight year, I have absolutely no obligations during the first four days of the tournament. Unlike last year though, I think this will be a great tournament for several reasons:
- The bracket as a whole is well-seeded. Only a couple of teams are greatly underseeded (Memphis and Cal), and there aren't any ridiculous high seeds. I only have one major complaint over who was included as I would have taken Drexel over USF. USF lost to three non-tourney teams in non-conference play, with the low-light being a 40 point effort against an awful Auburn team. Honestly, I would take another 10-15 teams that didn't make it over USF.
- The top two lines are quite strong. Last year, the two line was as weak as ever with relatively weak teams like SDSU, Florida, and yes, Notre Dame. This year, I can see any of the top 8 teams in the championship game. Duke is the only questionable team from this group, but they did beat three of the 1 seeds, so I can't count them out.
- Bid theives were few and far between this year. In fact, there were only two: St. Bonaventure, who's actually pretty good (51st in KenPom), and Colorado, who isn't really any worse than any other PAC-12 team, sans California.
- For the most part, the small conference tournaments didn't knock out the best teams. The only two high mid-majors that lost out to inferior teams were Iona and Middle Tennessee, and Iona got into the dance anyway. Many strong teams, such as Belmont, Harvard, and Long Beach won their conference championships as expected. While it may seem that we're missing out on some strong regular season conference champs like Nevada and Oral Roberts, the two-seeds in those conferences (New Mexico St and South Dakota St respectively) were actually superior teams. As a result, the 12-14 lines are probably the strongest we've seen in a long time. The 14 line of South Dakota St, Belmont, St Bonaventure, BYU and Iona alone is completely ridiculous. I wouldn't be shocked if two of them make the round of 32.
- This is a bit more of a random note, but the 5 line is really strong. Wichita and New Mexico are probably the two best mid-major teams, and Vandy is finally playing up to their top ten potential after dealing with injuries and inconsistency all season. Temple isn't quite as great as the other three, but is still quite strong with victories over Duke and St. Louis on its resume. We may not see a 12 over 5 this year, even though the 12s are also quite good.
Put that all together, and I think we'll see a tournament that gives us a great first few days as well as a superb final four. Here's a region by region breakdown.
EAST
Although I think all of the brackets are pretty even, this one might be the most wide open. This is the only region where I could see any of the top 5 seeds making the final four. Yes, Wisconsin isn't the sexiest team, but they do everything well which is reflected in the advanced metrics (6th in KenPom, 13th in LRMC). All the other tops seeds have made their case, with Syracuse and Ohio St being awesome all season and Vandy and FSU winning their conference tournaments in impressive fashion.
This bracket also has my second-favorite first round matchup: Cincinnati vs. Texas. Cincinnati certainly feels like a team that has improved over the course of the season, so I wouldn't be shocked if they play better than their seed. Texas is a team that does everything well on the offensive end except shoot (That sounds weird, but they limit turnovers, grab boards and get to the line quite well). That deficiency will probably limit them from advancing far, but J'Covan Brown can definitely lead them to a win or two.
Preliminary pick: Ohio St, but this will probably change several times by Tuesday
SOUTH
This is definitely the oddest bracket. Kentucky-Wichita would be an amazing sweet 16 game between the most talented team in the tournment and the most senior-laden team. Of course, Indiana and UConn, among others, will have their chances to prevent that matchup. If Indiana can play well without Verdell Jones, then the top half of this bracket is probably the best half-bracket in the tournament.
Of course, there are two halves to this bracket and the bottom is decidedly less good. Duke's inability to defend the perimeter and Baylor's apathy towards rebounding make them both quite susceptible to upsets. In fact, Nate Wolters and the Jackrabbits could take down the Bears in the first round if they shoot well enough....their 19 point win at Washington shows exactly what they can do. Even though I don't have a lot of faith in my Irish, there's an actual chance that they could get to the elite eight. ND's main problem in the tournament in recent years has been running up against great defensive units (FSU and ODU the last two years). The highest ranked defense in this half of the bracket is UNLV (28th according to KenPom), so they won't have that problem this year.
Preliminary pick: I'll bet anyone a dollar that it's either Kentucky or Wichita. I'll go with Kentucky for now.
WEST
This is probably the strongest bracket. The top half of the bracket features 5 of the top 20 teams in KenPom's ratings and 5 of the top 23 in LRMC. Long Beach ain't too shabby either. The bottom half of the bracket isn't quite as good, but it does feature some of the best undersized teams in the nation. It's nice that Missouri, Marquette, Florida and Murray St are all clumped together, so that none of them will have to go home early because they run into an inferior team with more size. To top it off, this bracket features one of my favorite players in the land, 5th-year senior forward Mike Scott of Virginia. His stats of 18 points and 8 rebounds don't jump off of the page, but when you factor in Virginia's snails pace on offense, he is actually one of the most productive players in the nation. If I could only pick one bracket to watch, this would be the one.
Likewise, if I could only pick one first round game to watch, and didn't care about ND and Creighton, then it would be the 8-9 matchup: Memphis vs. St Louis. This is a sweet-sixteen level matchup in the first round (KenPom has Memphis 9th in the nation and St Louis 15th, while LRMC has them 10th and 19th). Memphis' athleticism against St Louis' amazing defense should be an absolute treat to watch. I feel very sorry for Michigan St, because regardless of who wins this game, they will get a tough game in the round of 32.
I didn't think this was possible, but the 15 seed in this bracket, Norfolk St, is overseeded.
Preliminary pick: Missouri - the top of this bracket is just too tough to pick any of one of those teams, so I'll pick the team that has the best chance at the elite eight.
MIDWEST
This bracket probably gives its one seed, UNC, the clearest path to the final four of any of the brackets. There's a lot of good teams in here, but nobody is massively underseeded. Kansas is the only major threat to the Heels, and of course, the Jayhawks have a history under Self of underperforming against mid-majors (losses to UNI, Bucknell and Bradley and close calls against SIU, Davidson and Holy Cross), so they're hardly a lock to reach the regional final with St.Mary's and Belmont as possible matchups.
I'm pretty excited about the prospect of a Doug McDermott-Harrison Barnes matchup in the round of 32, should the Jays be able to get past Bama. If you've watched any Creighton game this season, then the announcer told you that they were high school teammates (they really can't get enough of that storyline). I'm also psyched that my wish came true in the 3-14 matchup. I really think Belmont can pull off the upset against Georgetown. While both teams are very smart and experienced, Belmont has the edge in offense. Even if Georgetown has a good day shooting, Belmont should be able to keep up. For the record, advanced metrics love Belmont as they are 23rd in KenPom and 9th(!) in LRMC.
Preliminary pick: UNC, if Henson is at or near 100%. If not, I'll probably go with Kansas.
Title pick: Notre Dame over Creighton in double OT.
Real title pick: UNC over Kentucky
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Favorite Songs Countdown
When I fired the blog back up in December, I warned that I might get the itch to write about things other than sports. The month of March gives me a pretty good opening. We're still a little bit away from baseball, and there's already enough people on the internet writing about bubble teams. Thus, I'll turn my thoughts towards something else I've thought about doing for a while: A countdown of my favorite songs. Without further ado, here's the guidelines:
1. One song per band makes the list. I don't think anyone wants to read 10 blog entries about different Isis songs, so I'll keep it simple.
2. I'm keeping the list to 20 songs. 20 seems like about enough entries to get a good, diverse mix of music without blathering on about a bunch of crap that no one cares about. Of course, part of the goal of this is to write about the music I love, and hopefully expose y'all to a few bands you might not have otherwise heard about (althought you've probably heard of most of the bands). But still, I don't want to overindulge myself.
3. That said, there'll be more than 20 songs. When I went through the primary list of songs, I had entirely too much trouble picking one song for some bands. Hence, I'll probably have a section at the end of each entry about some honorable mentions for each band. While the completely arbitrary rankings will still refer to the songs, each entry will be a sort of monument to the band in question. There'll also be a list of honorable mentions at the end of this post, because there's a few bands I at least wanted to acknowledge, including one which I am a member of.
4. The list will skew towards newer music. Yep, I'm 27. Most of the music will be from my lifetime. It happens. I do have two songs from before 1990 on the list, so that's something.
And that's about it. Four guidelines is enough. Here's the songs/bands that didn't quite make the cut for the top 20, in no particular order:
Everything in its Right Place - Radiohead
When I did the first draft of my list, I was a little surprised that Radiohead didn't make the cut. They've earned every bit of the critical praised that's been heaped upon them with their dynamic body of work. However, as I reflected on what makes Radiohead great, I realized that this omission makes sense. While they've had a few hits, and a few of their songs are singled out as their best, Radiohead seems to care more about crafting complete albums. I suppose you could say that the "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" cliche applies here. After all, this is the band that's sold their last two albums online, in part trying to avoid the trend of people downloading individual songs on ITunes and whatnot. If I did have to pick a song, it would probably be the odd table setter from my favorite of their albums Kid A, just beating out There, There and Exit Music (For a Film).
How Near How Far - And You Will Know Us By The Trail of Dead
...Trail of Dead's best album, Source Tags and Codes, is an absolute gold mine of fantastic music. There are few, if any, records that find their way into my car's CD player more often. While it's hard to pass up the title track or Heart in the Hand of the Mat for recognition, I think How Near How Far is the band at their sharpest. ...Trail of Dead rarely drag songs on necessarily, but they're also comfortable enough with their work to not rush it. How Near How Far leads in with instrumentals for almost a minute, which pays off when the same theme is repeated in the bridge. ...Trail of Dead knows how to create near-perfect 4 minute songs, and this is perhaps their best example.
Mother Earth - Jesu
Speaking of bands that take their time, here's Jesu. A perfect blend of metal and shoegaze, the Justin Broadrick-led band isn't afraid to explore every aspect of a musical thought. The theme that plays in the first 20 seconds of this song is pretty much the whole song. Of course that description doesn't do justice to what follows. Jesu makes the same progression of notes sounds optimistic, then foreboding, and finishes off with a slow burn into contentment.
Champagne From a Paper Cup - Death Cab For Cutie
This is still one of the best 2 minute long songs I've heard. Unique structure and and simple instrumentation. The quality of Death Cab's more recent albums has declined gradually, but they're generally still worth a listen.
Between the Bars - Elliott Smith
The other awesome two-minute long song on this list. It's a tragedy that the Omaha-born Elliott Smith ended his life so soon, but at least he left a great library of music behind. I'd have loved to see what he would have come up with nowadays.
PDA - Interpol
Turn on the Bright Lights is another CD that finds its way into my car pretty often. PDA is probably my favorite song on the album, but you could make a good case for Obstacle #1 as well.
Teen Age Riot - Sonic Youth
The mandatory song from the 80's on my list. Sorry, Toto.
Misunderstood - Wilco
Wilco is a band much like Radiohead where even though I would consider them one of my 20 favorite bands, it's tough for me to justify putting one of their songs in my top 20. If I had to pick one, I'd probably go with my and Adrienne's song, Misunderstood, but Hell is Chrome off of A Ghost is Born would also be a worthy pick. Fun fact: This song is from the one album on my computer that iTunes lists as "Country."
Your Woman - White Town
Unfortunately, DJ Drew does not have this song on his Backer playlist. One of the great shames of our time. If you want to blow your mind, here is the song from which the main sample of the song is taken:
Wait (You Guys) - Bing Bong Brothers
You can probably tell I'm to the "joke" part of the list. This makes the list over roughly 20,000 songs that are better than it because it is perhaps the only thing that will make me laugh every time I see/hear it. To prove it, I'm giggling as I type this.
Money - Donut Hymen
That's right, no caps no caps no caps.
1. One song per band makes the list. I don't think anyone wants to read 10 blog entries about different Isis songs, so I'll keep it simple.
2. I'm keeping the list to 20 songs. 20 seems like about enough entries to get a good, diverse mix of music without blathering on about a bunch of crap that no one cares about. Of course, part of the goal of this is to write about the music I love, and hopefully expose y'all to a few bands you might not have otherwise heard about (althought you've probably heard of most of the bands). But still, I don't want to overindulge myself.
3. That said, there'll be more than 20 songs. When I went through the primary list of songs, I had entirely too much trouble picking one song for some bands. Hence, I'll probably have a section at the end of each entry about some honorable mentions for each band. While the completely arbitrary rankings will still refer to the songs, each entry will be a sort of monument to the band in question. There'll also be a list of honorable mentions at the end of this post, because there's a few bands I at least wanted to acknowledge, including one which I am a member of.
4. The list will skew towards newer music. Yep, I'm 27. Most of the music will be from my lifetime. It happens. I do have two songs from before 1990 on the list, so that's something.
And that's about it. Four guidelines is enough. Here's the songs/bands that didn't quite make the cut for the top 20, in no particular order:
Everything in its Right Place - Radiohead
When I did the first draft of my list, I was a little surprised that Radiohead didn't make the cut. They've earned every bit of the critical praised that's been heaped upon them with their dynamic body of work. However, as I reflected on what makes Radiohead great, I realized that this omission makes sense. While they've had a few hits, and a few of their songs are singled out as their best, Radiohead seems to care more about crafting complete albums. I suppose you could say that the "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" cliche applies here. After all, this is the band that's sold their last two albums online, in part trying to avoid the trend of people downloading individual songs on ITunes and whatnot. If I did have to pick a song, it would probably be the odd table setter from my favorite of their albums Kid A, just beating out There, There and Exit Music (For a Film).
How Near How Far - And You Will Know Us By The Trail of Dead
...Trail of Dead's best album, Source Tags and Codes, is an absolute gold mine of fantastic music. There are few, if any, records that find their way into my car's CD player more often. While it's hard to pass up the title track or Heart in the Hand of the Mat for recognition, I think How Near How Far is the band at their sharpest. ...Trail of Dead rarely drag songs on necessarily, but they're also comfortable enough with their work to not rush it. How Near How Far leads in with instrumentals for almost a minute, which pays off when the same theme is repeated in the bridge. ...Trail of Dead knows how to create near-perfect 4 minute songs, and this is perhaps their best example.
Mother Earth - Jesu
Speaking of bands that take their time, here's Jesu. A perfect blend of metal and shoegaze, the Justin Broadrick-led band isn't afraid to explore every aspect of a musical thought. The theme that plays in the first 20 seconds of this song is pretty much the whole song. Of course that description doesn't do justice to what follows. Jesu makes the same progression of notes sounds optimistic, then foreboding, and finishes off with a slow burn into contentment.
Champagne From a Paper Cup - Death Cab For Cutie
This is still one of the best 2 minute long songs I've heard. Unique structure and and simple instrumentation. The quality of Death Cab's more recent albums has declined gradually, but they're generally still worth a listen.
Between the Bars - Elliott Smith
The other awesome two-minute long song on this list. It's a tragedy that the Omaha-born Elliott Smith ended his life so soon, but at least he left a great library of music behind. I'd have loved to see what he would have come up with nowadays.
PDA - Interpol
Turn on the Bright Lights is another CD that finds its way into my car pretty often. PDA is probably my favorite song on the album, but you could make a good case for Obstacle #1 as well.
Teen Age Riot - Sonic Youth
The mandatory song from the 80's on my list. Sorry, Toto.
Misunderstood - Wilco
Wilco is a band much like Radiohead where even though I would consider them one of my 20 favorite bands, it's tough for me to justify putting one of their songs in my top 20. If I had to pick one, I'd probably go with my and Adrienne's song, Misunderstood, but Hell is Chrome off of A Ghost is Born would also be a worthy pick. Fun fact: This song is from the one album on my computer that iTunes lists as "Country."
Your Woman - White Town
Unfortunately, DJ Drew does not have this song on his Backer playlist. One of the great shames of our time. If you want to blow your mind, here is the song from which the main sample of the song is taken:
Wait (You Guys) - Bing Bong Brothers
You can probably tell I'm to the "joke" part of the list. This makes the list over roughly 20,000 songs that are better than it because it is perhaps the only thing that will make me laugh every time I see/hear it. To prove it, I'm giggling as I type this.
Money - Donut Hymen
That's right, no caps no caps no caps.
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