College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 13

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	97.37%	0.4%
2	Michigan	4	65.19%	31.9%
3	Notre Dame	5	64.23%	-11.1%
4	Oklahoma State	8	60.93%	20.7%
5	Alabama	3	39.70%	-0.6%
6	Cincinnati	6	28.15%	24.0%
7	Ohio State	2	10.16%	-45.9%
8	Michigan State	29	8.82%	2.7%
9	Ole Miss	17	7.94%	-0.4%
10	Baylor	18	6.47%	-2.7%
11	Oklahoma	9	2.82%	-17.1%
12	Wake Forest	22	2.77%	-0.1%
13	Oregon	20	2.65%	-0.9%
14	Pitt	12	1.53%	-0.2%
15	Iowa	21	1.25%	-0.4%

Cincinnati's perseverance in the committee's rankings has finally caused me to make a change.  Instead of treating them like a two-loss team like I normally do for Group of Five teams, I am now treating them as a one-loss team.  Even with this adjustment, their .500 strength of schedule still limits them in my model's estimation, but that might change depending on what happens in front of them.  In other news, Notre Dame drops down from their previous high mostly because not enough other teams have lost.  I still think the Irish make it in with a Bama loss and maybe one other upset, but if that doesn't happen my model might not quite sync with reality.  So for every possible reason, let's go chaos!

Championship Week Preview

Team 1	Team 2	Team 1 Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Alabama	Georgia	33.2%	0.240
Oklahoma State	Baylor	64.5%	0.158
Michigan	Iowa	76.2%	0.087
Cincinnati	Houston	80.7%	0.054
Pitt	Wake Forest	62.2%	0.023
Oregon	Utah	43.8%	0.015

It's now year eight of the Playoff era, and there has yet to be an impactful upset on Championship Week.  Alabama, Baylor, Iowa, and Houston average a total of about 1.1 wins per simulation.  Maybe this is the year?  If it isn't, you can at least enjoy fun games in Wake-Pitt and Louisiana-App State.

College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 10

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	94.14%	2.9%
2	Ohio State	2	55.52%	5.9%
3	Notre Dame	13	49.17%	5.9%
4	Oklahoma	5	47.06%	-2.4%
5	Alabama	3	43.04%	0.9%
6	Michigan	4	23.87%	-0.1%
7	Oklahoma State	14	22.56%	12.7%
8	Oregon	19	18.72%	5.1%
9	Michigan State	22	13.24%	-24.0%
10	Wake Forest	28	7.94%	-7.8%
11	Ole Miss	15	7.30%	2.8%
12	Texas A&M	7	5.80%	3.9%
13	Cincinnati	11	2.64%	0.1%
14	Baylor	23	2.45%	-7.5%
15	Iowa	21	2.18%	1.4%
16	Pitt	10	1.95%	0.4%
17	North Carolina State	17	1.89%	1.2%
18	UTSA	47	0.51%	0.2%

Week 10 was a test for the second-tier contenders that most failed.  So while the top six of the table is roughly the same, everything below that basically inverted itself.  Oklahoma State's solidest win of the year (a no-doubter against a Mountaineer team that's been feisty when playing in Morgantown) pulls the to the head of that pack, while Michigan State and Wake are technically not dead yet (but just wait).  And yes, I am feeling better and better about my decision to leave Cincinnati as they were.  There's now roughly even odds they lose to SMU or Houston, anyway.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	North Carolina State	58.2%		Clemson	23.3%
ACCC	Pitt	65.0%		Miami (FL)	18.8%
AMER	Houston	99.7%		Cincinnati	97.6%
B10E	Ohio State	78.0%		Michigan	16.4%
B10W	Wisconsin	57.8%		Iowa	20.2%
B12	Oklahoma	83.2%		Oklahoma State	72.7%
CUSAE	Marshall	62.8%		Western Kentucky	32.8%
CUSAW	UTSA	87.1%		UAB	12.8%
MACE	Kent State	63.5%		Miami (OH)	34.6%
MACW	Northern Illinois	45.6%		Ball State	18.7%
MWCW	San Diego State	39.1%		Fresno State	34.2%
MWCM	Utah State	47.4%		Boise State	40.1%
P12N	Oregon	85.2%		Washington State	12.2%
P12S	Utah	96.8%		Arizona State	3.0%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	Alabama	84.4%		Texas A&M	7.7%
SUNE	Appalachian State	73.1%		Coastal Carolina	26.2%
SUNW	Louisiana	100.0%

Reserving all this space to talk about the ACC Atlantic, in which Wake remains 5-0 after their non-conference loss to a team in their conference, but is still only the third-most-likely team to win the division.  The Deacs play the other two teams the next two weeks, and the numbers paint them as underdogs in both games.  Obviously that still gives them a path, albeit a narrower one than you might expect.

Another week, another weird sim.  13-0 Oklahoma would be in.  12-1 SEC champ Georgia (with a loss to Tennessee?) would be in.  12-1 Cincy and 11-1 Notre Dame would provide the committee with an ultimate test of which they like more: head-to-head results or disregarding team from the Group of Five.  And if they reject one (or more) of that duo, they could pull in 11-2 Big Ten Champ Ohio State?  This would be a really interesting and also really dumb discussion, so of course I am rooting for it to happen.

Week 11 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Virginia	Notre Dame	38.1%	0.094
Baylor	Oklahoma	38.1%	0.075
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	48.5%	0.066
Penn State	Michigan	46.5%	0.055
Tennessee	Georgia	12.8%	0.040
Wake Forest	North Carolina State	48.7%	0.030
Oklahoma State	TCU	79.8%	0.023
Ohio State	Purdue	92.0%	0.022
Oregon	Washington State	83.0%	0.016
Michigan State	Maryland	82.1%	0.012
Iowa	Minnesota	65.9%	0.007
Pitt	North Carolina	72.2%	0.005
South Florida	Cincinnati	5.0%	0.001
Alabama	New Mexico State	99.9%	0.000
UTSA	Southern Miss	96.2%	0.000

Here's a solid weekend with a lot of good night games for once (Oregon-Wazzu is one of the few worthy #Pac12AfterDark entrees in a threadbare year for the concept), but I want to focus on the top game on the list.  My beloved Irish are third in the Playoff odds largely because they're likely to finish 11-1 against a superficially good-looking schedule.  This trip to Charlottesville is easily their toughest remaining stumbling block to achieving this goal, so it makes sense that this is the game of the week.  So in theory I should be psyched, right?  Perhaps.  The problem is that the assumption of my excitement relies on another assumption that I would actually want the Irish to make the Playoff.  On one level I do.  Even though the first seven years of the Playoff have been incredibly chalky, something stupid is going to happen at some point.  Maybe it will be this year, and maybe it will be my team that benefits!  On the other hand, no it won't.  A Playoff berth for Notre Dame will invariably result in pain and, more importantly, a really bad game.  So I am left to sort of root for the Irish but also to root for chaos.  Nihilism, it rules!