Ever since I began my blog three years ago, I've always had the idea in the back of my head of doing a post where I explain my allegiances, both to teams and to sports. I offhandedly mention in some of my posts that college football is the best, or that I hope my Irish or my Huskers or my Bluejays do well, or that I don't have an NBA team. While these mentions probably give you all an idea of how I feel about things, there probably isn't enough context there to really understand where I am coming from. Additionally, it has felt like I get a lot of people wondering if the latest ND loss has crushed me, or asking why I didn't do an NFL preview in addition to my college one. Given all of this, it seems like now would be as good of a time as any to write a post like thus. Enjoy?
Favorite Sports (as of 10/22/2013)
1. College Football
This one is pretty simple. I grew up in Nebraska, which is obsessed with the Huskers. I went to Notre Dame, which is one of the most football-crazed campuses you'll see. I've been watching college football for twenty years, which gives me some perspective and history with the sport that I don't have with every other sport. And finally, there isn't another sport that I know of where every single game matters as much as it does in college football. The 14 or 15 fall Saturdays loaded with football are among the very best sporting days of the year. Everything about them, from the always-surreal Corso mascot head moment to the late-late games (also known as nap time), helps to make college football my favorite sport.
2. College Basketball
The glowing tone of the previous paragraph probably makes it seem like college football is far and away my #1 sport. And when I'm in the middle of my weekly 14-hour marathon of games, it really doesn't seem like anything else could compare. That said, college basketball comes close. The game itself is awesome, packing a ton of drama into a relatively compact two-hour window. The 35-second shot clock allows for meaty possessions and provides a stern test to on-ball defense.* While other sports dismiss the little guy, college basketball embraces the smaller teams, giving nearly 350 squads their chance at a day in the sun. The colorful coaches and their personalities make their marks on their programs unlike any other sport, which results in an interesting paradox: While playing careers are shorter in CBB than in any other sport, the presence of legendary coaches and programs creates a sense of continuity that no other sport (not even college football) can match. And finally, the NCAA tournament is quite simply the best sporting event of the year, mixing drama and high-level play in perfect amounts.
*Shortening the clock is not the answer to the scoring "problem", although I could probably live with a 30-second clock.
3. MLB
Having college sports in my top two spots requires a bit of mental gymnastics. Yes, many of the teams I watch are very, very good at their sports, but they are clearly not playing at the level of NFL/NBA teams. That doesn't really seem to phase me though, as the intensity and importance of the college games have made them my favorite sports. When it comes to baseball though, I like watching the best. Seeing the best defensive plays, the craziest pitches, and the raw power of major leaguers is far superior to the college product in my opinion.
This distinction results in part from the fact that college football and basketball are more pervasive in our culture, but I think there is another reason as well. Whereas basketball and football are primarily about the fluidity, teamwork, and togetherness of a team, baseball is a very individualized sport. Yes, you need to work together with your teammates from time to time (most notably catchers and pitchers need to be on the same page), but most duties of a baseball player are performed largely by individuals acting alone. Because of this, watching lesser players just doesn't work quite as well, and MLB rules the day in baseball.
4. Tennis
If I made this list a few years ago, tennis would have been ranked much lower. The last couple of years have seen a big change for me, for a couple of reasons. First, I've started playing tennis a lot, so watching tennis takes on a bit of an educational bent for me. Second, and more importantly, the top players in tennis right now are just so good. Watching a match between two of the top 6 or 7 men, or between Serena and Azarenka is unlike any other current sporting event in terms of pure insane quality. I have yet to start regularly following non-grand slam tournaments, but tennis has settled in nicely in the middle of my list.
5. NFL
Hey there NFL. You are great. Dramatic playoff games, insanely high level play, actual focus on defense, fantasy football, year-round coverage of ridiculous minutia (draft combines, anyone?), minimal alternate uniforms.
However, you are also terrible. Concussion problems that aren't getting fully addressed. A weird penchant for pink, when it isn't that beneficial. A weird insistence on parity at the expense of all else. A terrible programming strategy that forces consumers to go through Direct TV to be able to watch the games they want to.
When I was younger, the NFL would have been #1 or #2 on this list. Now, it has drifted down the list (and I was tempted to put it lower). I still watch plenty of games, and I still root for my Buccaneers every chance I get, but the NFL just doesn't do it for me. Maybe that's why all of my fantasy teams are so terrible this year.
6. NBA
This one is easy. The playoffs are awesome. The regular season is terrible. Last season, I watched one regular season NBA game (and it was a doozy). I understand the business reasons for playing 82 games, but there is just no need to play that many games.* The lack of importance of individual games shows in the often lackadaisical playing you'll often see in regular season games. Additionally, this sort of practice leads to tired teams, commissioners fining coaches for resting players, and ridiculous spates of injuries. Just last year, we were without Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, and a boatload of others for the playoffs. In turn, this makes the playoffs a little bit worse, as simply being healthy is often the difference between winning a ring and going home early. I will probably always tune in for the NBA playoffs, but until they fix the regular season, the NBA will stay here on the list.
*NBA team talent stabilizes almost as quickly as NFL team talent, but they play 5 times as many games. So that's a little unnecessary.
7. Golf
Major championships in golf are one of my absolute favorite sporting events, just behind the NCAA Tournament and just in front of game 163s. While I normally do my best to catch as much of them as I can, a funny thing happened this year; I was out of town for every single one of them. The funnier thing was that I didn't really seem to notice that much. I still love watching golf, but I think it's taken a backseat to a few other sports, and I'm not really sure why.
Favorite Teams (as of 10/22/2013)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There's no getting around it: The current Raheem Morris/Josh Freeman/Terrible Defense/MRSA/Greg Schiano/GIRAFFENSE era has seriously tried my patience as a Buccaneer fan. The team's results have been terrible and there is nothing to indicate that this is a good organization struck by bad fortune. In fact, the only recent season with promise was 2010, in which the Bucs excelled down the stretch in spite of some terrible bad luck with injuries. The Bucs play on national TV twice in the next two weeks, and while I'll most certainly watch, I'm not particularly excited about it. So yeah, things are rough.
All that said, they still take the #1 spot on this list, and it isn't particularly close. I've been a fan for so long, and there's so many great memories associated with the team that they aren't going anywhere on this list in the near future. They still have one of the best and most unique uniforms (Pewter wasn't really a color before 1997). They still play in a great stadium. There is still a lot of young, awesome talent that isn't too far away from being playoff worthy.* And if there is nothing else, there will always be the memory of Super Bowl XXXVII. The Buccaneers have always been something that is uniquely me, and I don't see me giving that up anytime soon.
*Call me crazy, but if they draft Marcus Mariota and a tight end (strong year for that with Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Colt Lyerla) and then sign someone like David Shaw to be coach, I think this can be a ten win team next year.
2. Notre Dame Men's Basketball
3. Creighton Men's Basketball
Rooting for a college basketball team is particularly unique. The back and forth pace of play combined with the importance of each individual game. Yes, each game doesn't matter quite as much as they do in college football, but given the egalitarian nature of the Tournament, playing for seeding is much bigger of a deal than playing for bowl position. This leads to a minute-to-minute tension, at least for me, that makes college basketball fandom more a symptom of Stockholm Syndrome than any other sport. Thus, ND and Creighton check in just behind the Buccaneers.
4. Oakland Athletics
The A's are the hardest team to peg on this list. In a lot of ways, they should be higher. MLB has the best year-round visibility for me, so my offseason awareness of them is higher than that of my other teams. Baseball has the summer to itself, so I spend four months rooting for no one other than the A's. And most importantly, Billy Beane has been smartly leading the team for a decade and a half, which helps to ensure that there's always a method to the madness. That sort of confidence in an organization is important to me as a fan, because it helps to smooth over the bad periods (2007-2011) with assurance that success is around the corner.
In spite of all of that, I can also make the argument that they should be lower. While Billy seems pretty entrenched as GM, there's always the chance that he could leave. Since he's been with the team for the whole span of my baseball-aware life, that would bring about a pretty big sea-change for the A's. If they are suddenly no longer on the forefront of analytical thought, would I have the same connection to the team?* Additionally, the whole stadium fiasco could blow up at some point, which wouldn't necessarily result in a happy ending for the club. Considering that the franchise hasn't had a ballpark built specifically for it in 104 years, I don't feel particularly optimistic about the situation. Finally, they have by far the least personal history of any of these teams, as I've rooted for the Bucs and the "hometown" teams for twice as long, and I of course attended Notre Dame.
*I became a fan around the time of Moneyball, but the main thing that curated my fan-ship was the dominance of the Big Three (Hudson, Mulder, and Zito), as well as guys like Eric Chavez. The analytical process behind the team has been something that kept me coming back through the years, and helped to reinforce and strengthen my allegiance. Also, those uniforms are purty.
In the end, I think I'll always be an A's fan. While there is a lot of potential future variance in exactly how much I like them, the last decade has provided enough memories for me to hold onto through thick and thin.
5. Nebraska Football
6. Notre Dame Football
Whereas college football is my favorite sport, my college football allegiances fall towards the bottom of my team-specific list. Part of that is happenstance, but part of that is causal. I've always been a big college football fan, but the 2007 season is probably the most responsible for my current state of being more of a sport-wide fan than a team-specific fan. While the Irish and Huskers were busy going 8-16 (and it was a bad 8-16), the rest of football was having an insane season* (read my ten games post, and you'll see which of the write-ups seems the most gushing and enthusiastic). As a result, I drifted further towards being a fan of the whole sport. Of course, this low ranking doesn't mean I don't care deeply about these teams. Rather, I just care about them a little less than the others on the list.
*Best example of this: We went out to a bar to watch ND play UCLA. ND was winless and UCLA wasn't very good either. I spent most of the time focusing instead on the ridiculous LSU-Florida 4th-down bowl. That might be the very day where I made my final transition from specialist to general practitioner.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Saturday, October 12, 2013
College Football: The First Month (and a week)
Coming into the 2013 college football season, I had planned to write about college football at large about once a month, just like I did last year. I still plan on doing this, but this entry ended up being a little late. Trying to figure out one's career and preparing for a visit from the parents will do that to a guy. Fortunately, I have some time now. Let's talk about the greatest sport for a bit.
Six Weeks Makes a Difference
Before the season, I posted my thoughts on the upcoming season, complete with a rundown of what I thought would be the top 40 or so teams. Given those prognostications, let's see what went right and what went terribly wrong.
Prediction: Alabama and Oregon are the two best teams
Grade thus far: A
A few other teams could stake their claim to one of the top two spots at this point, but I would still take these two against the world. The Tide have a flaw or two, but they've been able to minimize those and navigate through the toughest part of their schedule with aplomb. As for Oregon, Mark Helfrich may not be as good of a coach as Chip Kelly, but he can at the very least coast on the immense amount of talent he has on hand. After all, Larry Coker did win his first 25 games with Miami.
Prediction: Florida State would be really good
Grade thus far: A
In spite of all the Florida State angst from the past decade that seemed to keep voters from giving the Noles a high ranking early on, it was pretty easy for me to think that this team could buck the school's recent trend. Adding an insane prodigy like Jameis Winston* to a program already loaded with talent seems like a pretty strong formula for a top five team. This is probably my biggest "win".
*At the beginning of the season, I bet Fro that The Wonderful Monster would win the Heisman with 10-1 odds. Current odds from Bovada: 9-1. Sweet.
Prediction: Missouri and Arizona State would be "surprise" teams
Grade thus far: A-
For once, my surprise teams are actually doing well. Arizona State was gaining some mainstream hype in the preseason, so I didn't go out on a huge limb with them, but they've come through regardless. I thought they would split their difficult four game stretch, and that's exactly what they did (Sorry, Badgers). Their defense hasn't been as strong as I would have thought, but Taylor Kelly and Marion Grice have proven able to lead a very strong offense (7th in S&P+) that should contend for the Pac-12 South.
Missouri on the other hand, was a little more off of the radar due to their 5-7 campaign from last year. With a healthy James Franklin and Henry Josey, the Tigers have been able to pick off where they left off in 2011, when they were a fringe top-25 team. They haven't played any great teams en route to their 5-0 start, but that will change with the "big three" of the SEC East in the next three weeks. I think Missouri will win one of those games and maybe even two.
Prediction: USC, Northwestern, and Ole Miss supporters should all slow down a bit
Grade thus far: B+
Most voters had at least a couple of these teams ranked, but I omitted all three from my preseason top 25. These teams have had some bright moments, but I think I've been largely vindicated in not fully trusting any of them. Yes, Northwestern has a great offense, USC has a great defense, and Ole Miss has a lot of young, exciting talent. However, all of these teams have stumbled a bit (or in USC's case a lot). There's reason for optimism, but I think there are a lot of teams better than this group.
Prediction: Notre Dame will still be pretty good
Grade thus far: B-
I knew that Everett Golson and Manti Te'o would be missed, but I just didn't know how much. This is still a good team that has done alright considering the tough schedule, but the Irish are clearly worse than they were last year, especially on defense. My long term hopes for the program under Brian Kelly are still high, but that doesn't mean there won't be bumps in the road like this season.
Prediction: Baylor is a little overhyped
Grade thus far: C-
I knew their offense would be good, but I didn't know it would be historically good. They are literally first in everything, and they are coming off of this performance:
Prediction: Texas will be good
Grade thus far: D
OOOOOPS! Oh well. Sometimes teams just collapse. Couldn't happen to a nicer program.
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Florida State
5. Clemson
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Georgia
9. Washington
10. LSU
11. Baylor
12. Oklahoma
13. Florida
14. UCLA
15. Louisville
16. South Carolina
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Missouri
21. Wisconsin
22. Michigan State
23. Virginia Tech
24. Fresno State
25. Northwestern
Also considered: Notre Dame, Arizona State, Auburn, Texas Tech
I'm pretty happy with the top part of the rankings. I feel we've seen enough from these teams to say that they're the best in the land at this point. Once I get to Louisville at #15 though, it's pretty much a crapshoot from there. The next 15 teams feel like a blurred mess to me, so don't get too offended if you think I have someone ranked too high or too low.
Lest you think I dropped Northwestern a bunch because of their extremely close loss to the Buckeyes, let me say that I had them #24 the prior week. I don't have the Wildcats as high as the voters, primarily because of their mediocre defense (48th in S&P+). While their offense mostly helped them stay close, their inability to stop Ohio State's running game is what ultimately doomed them. Their game against Wisconsin this week will go a long way in determining whether or not they can defend a power rushing game, and perhaps contend for a Big Ten title.
All Defense, No Offense
If you head on over to the S&P defense ratings page, you'll see a very interesting top four. For those that don't like to click on things, those four teams are Florida, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and USC. Even if you're not a fan of advanced metrics, it's hard to deny that those aren't four of the best defenses in the country. After all, Florida held a great Miami offense to 212 yards on the road, and Virginia Tech only allowed two offensive touchdowns to the #1 team in the country. What is especially strange about this group though, is that all of these teams combine their great defenses with much, much worse offenses. By the same S&P+ metrics, here are those teams' offensive rankings:
Florida: 69th
USC: 75th
Virginia Tech: 94th
Michigan State: 96th
Now, if you go just a little bit further down the list of top defenses, you will start to see a few teams (like Stanford and Alabama) that are just about equally great on both sides of the ball. It's clear that a great defense doesn't mean you can't also have a great offense. But I do find it quite strange that this season's very best defenses reside on teams that are less than stellar overall. One of the most interesting second-half storylines for nerds who like defense (like me) will be watching just how much these teams can accomplish while being extremely one-sided.
Another Word on Scheduling
In my preseason post, I wrote about how bad the in-conference schedules were this season, with the main culprits being an easy road for Alabama and a terrible slate of cross-conference battles in the Big Ten. I didn't talk about the terribleness of non-conference schedules, mainly because it's generally assumed to be true. While I do agree that the best teams don't challenge themselves enough, I think the lack of good games can sometimes be overstated. Case in point is this tweet, and the article to which it links:
In sum, I would say that the author buries the lede when it comes to the root of non-conference scheduling problems. If you click through to the article, you will see that he mentions that "34.4% of all non-conference games (this season) will involve FCS teams." I wouldn't necessarily advocate for completely throwing these games away; they do send a lot of money to programs in need of it, and the little guys even get wins out of these games occasionally. Rather, I would like to see the number of these games greatly reduced. Hopefully, the upcoming playoff (and the playoff committee that comes with it) will encourage teams to shift the balance back towards stronger non-conference scheduling.
SEC Dominance
Much has been made over the last eight years about the SEC's dominance over the rest of college football. While the margin of separation between them and other conferences has been overstated, the SEC has indeed been the best conference ever since their BCS title streak began. That said, we might be seeing a small changing of the guard this year. With the sudden improvements at programs like Washington and UCLA, the PAC-12 may actually be the best conference this year. For some evidence, here is a chart that shows the average F/+ rating by conference for the past seven years:
A simple average of the ratings probably isn't the best methodology, but it is simple and transparent, so we'll go with that for now. As you can see from the chart, the SEC has been the best conference every year from 2007 to 2012, and has occasionally towered over the rest. This year though, we are starting to see a challenger arise from the West. The Pac-12 hasn't seen this level of play since the tail end of the USC dynasty. A few lean years gave way to a new group of coaches that have mostly succeeded in bringing the conference back. Since we are almost out of non-conference games, most of the differentiation between the conferences at this point will take place in the big remaining non-conference games like Stanford-ND and Florida-FSU. It will be interesting to watch and see if the SEC "dynasty" finally comes to an end this year.
Weekend Predictions
Wisconsin 52, Northwestern 28
I've heard a lot of narratives that say Northwestern will be too exhausted from the Ohio State game, both mentally and physically, to win this game. While I don't normally subscribe to such theories, that could certainly be true. Regardless of that, I simply think that Wisconsin is the better team, and I don't think the Wildcats have the ability to consistently stop a team as physical as the Badgers. If Wisconsin does win this game, they'll have a good chance at getting to 10 wins, because look at this. I honestly think they have as good of a chance of winning the rest of their regular season games as anyone not named Alabama.
Missouri 35, Georgia 31
We all know that Georgia will be without their two best running backs, and a couple of their top receivers. Still, Aaron Murray has improved to the point that I'm nervous to pick against him. I'll continue to ride my "surprise" team here, but don't be surprised if Mizzou's big upset (or upsets) happens in the next two weeks instead, at home against Florida and/or South Carolina.
LSU 27, Florida 17
This is probably the hardest game to pick, in part because of the imbalance between the different sides of the ball that I mentioned earlier for Florida. While LSU won't have the best unit on the field, they are far more balanced than the Gators (6th in offensive efficiency, 13th on defense). Loucheiz Purifoy is a great cover corner, but he can only cover one of the Odell Beckham Jr./Jarvis Landry duo. I can see Florida limiting LSU's offense, but not quite enough to get the win.
Oregon 38, Washington 31
I didn't write anything about Washington meteoric rise in the predictions section, because I never even mentioned them in my preseason post. In my defense, they had basically been the most average team in the nation for the past decade (excluding that 0-12 season). Thus, when they turned into a championship-level team overnight (7th in Sagarin, 11th in F/+), I was a little surprised. Oregon is still the better team, but they will get one of their biggest tests of the season here. Mariota should outpace Keith Price in the battle of QBs, but the Huskies defense and the insanity of Washington's home field advantage should keep it close.
Six Weeks Makes a Difference
Before the season, I posted my thoughts on the upcoming season, complete with a rundown of what I thought would be the top 40 or so teams. Given those prognostications, let's see what went right and what went terribly wrong.
Prediction: Alabama and Oregon are the two best teams
Grade thus far: A
A few other teams could stake their claim to one of the top two spots at this point, but I would still take these two against the world. The Tide have a flaw or two, but they've been able to minimize those and navigate through the toughest part of their schedule with aplomb. As for Oregon, Mark Helfrich may not be as good of a coach as Chip Kelly, but he can at the very least coast on the immense amount of talent he has on hand. After all, Larry Coker did win his first 25 games with Miami.
Prediction: Florida State would be really good
Grade thus far: A
In spite of all the Florida State angst from the past decade that seemed to keep voters from giving the Noles a high ranking early on, it was pretty easy for me to think that this team could buck the school's recent trend. Adding an insane prodigy like Jameis Winston* to a program already loaded with talent seems like a pretty strong formula for a top five team. This is probably my biggest "win".
*At the beginning of the season, I bet Fro that The Wonderful Monster would win the Heisman with 10-1 odds. Current odds from Bovada: 9-1. Sweet.
Prediction: Missouri and Arizona State would be "surprise" teams
Grade thus far: A-
For once, my surprise teams are actually doing well. Arizona State was gaining some mainstream hype in the preseason, so I didn't go out on a huge limb with them, but they've come through regardless. I thought they would split their difficult four game stretch, and that's exactly what they did (Sorry, Badgers). Their defense hasn't been as strong as I would have thought, but Taylor Kelly and Marion Grice have proven able to lead a very strong offense (7th in S&P+) that should contend for the Pac-12 South.
Missouri on the other hand, was a little more off of the radar due to their 5-7 campaign from last year. With a healthy James Franklin and Henry Josey, the Tigers have been able to pick off where they left off in 2011, when they were a fringe top-25 team. They haven't played any great teams en route to their 5-0 start, but that will change with the "big three" of the SEC East in the next three weeks. I think Missouri will win one of those games and maybe even two.
Prediction: USC, Northwestern, and Ole Miss supporters should all slow down a bit
Grade thus far: B+
Most voters had at least a couple of these teams ranked, but I omitted all three from my preseason top 25. These teams have had some bright moments, but I think I've been largely vindicated in not fully trusting any of them. Yes, Northwestern has a great offense, USC has a great defense, and Ole Miss has a lot of young, exciting talent. However, all of these teams have stumbled a bit (or in USC's case a lot). There's reason for optimism, but I think there are a lot of teams better than this group.
Prediction: Notre Dame will still be pretty good
Grade thus far: B-
I knew that Everett Golson and Manti Te'o would be missed, but I just didn't know how much. This is still a good team that has done alright considering the tough schedule, but the Irish are clearly worse than they were last year, especially on defense. My long term hopes for the program under Brian Kelly are still high, but that doesn't mean there won't be bumps in the road like this season.
Prediction: Baylor is a little overhyped
Grade thus far: C-
I knew their offense would be good, but I didn't know it would be historically good. They are literally first in everything, and they are coming off of this performance:
Baylor 1st-half TD drives: 75 (3 plays), 75 (12 plays), 47 (1 play), 80 (1 play), 80 (14 plays), 77 (8 plays), 77 (4 plays), 74 (7 plays).And they are scoring more than almost everyone in half the time:
— Travis Haney (@TravHaneyESPN) October 6, 2013
So … if Baylor had never once scored after halftime, the Bears would be fourth in the country in PPG.Yes, they haven't played anybody yet (although West Virginia has been at least decent at defense), but a lot of other teams have also had easy schedules and none of them have come even close to doing this. It's entirely possible that they will falter a bit when their much more difficult November slate rolls around, but I think they have a legitimate chance at winning the conference, and perhaps even making the title game.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) October 7, 2013
Prediction: Texas will be good
Grade thus far: D
OOOOOPS! Oh well. Sometimes teams just collapse. Couldn't happen to a nicer program.
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Florida State
5. Clemson
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Georgia
9. Washington
10. LSU
11. Baylor
12. Oklahoma
13. Florida
14. UCLA
15. Louisville
16. South Carolina
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Missouri
21. Wisconsin
22. Michigan State
23. Virginia Tech
24. Fresno State
25. Northwestern
Also considered: Notre Dame, Arizona State, Auburn, Texas Tech
I'm pretty happy with the top part of the rankings. I feel we've seen enough from these teams to say that they're the best in the land at this point. Once I get to Louisville at #15 though, it's pretty much a crapshoot from there. The next 15 teams feel like a blurred mess to me, so don't get too offended if you think I have someone ranked too high or too low.
Lest you think I dropped Northwestern a bunch because of their extremely close loss to the Buckeyes, let me say that I had them #24 the prior week. I don't have the Wildcats as high as the voters, primarily because of their mediocre defense (48th in S&P+). While their offense mostly helped them stay close, their inability to stop Ohio State's running game is what ultimately doomed them. Their game against Wisconsin this week will go a long way in determining whether or not they can defend a power rushing game, and perhaps contend for a Big Ten title.
All Defense, No Offense
If you head on over to the S&P defense ratings page, you'll see a very interesting top four. For those that don't like to click on things, those four teams are Florida, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and USC. Even if you're not a fan of advanced metrics, it's hard to deny that those aren't four of the best defenses in the country. After all, Florida held a great Miami offense to 212 yards on the road, and Virginia Tech only allowed two offensive touchdowns to the #1 team in the country. What is especially strange about this group though, is that all of these teams combine their great defenses with much, much worse offenses. By the same S&P+ metrics, here are those teams' offensive rankings:
Florida: 69th
USC: 75th
Virginia Tech: 94th
Michigan State: 96th
Now, if you go just a little bit further down the list of top defenses, you will start to see a few teams (like Stanford and Alabama) that are just about equally great on both sides of the ball. It's clear that a great defense doesn't mean you can't also have a great offense. But I do find it quite strange that this season's very best defenses reside on teams that are less than stellar overall. One of the most interesting second-half storylines for nerds who like defense (like me) will be watching just how much these teams can accomplish while being extremely one-sided.
Another Word on Scheduling
In my preseason post, I wrote about how bad the in-conference schedules were this season, with the main culprits being an easy road for Alabama and a terrible slate of cross-conference battles in the Big Ten. I didn't talk about the terribleness of non-conference schedules, mainly because it's generally assumed to be true. While I do agree that the best teams don't challenge themselves enough, I think the lack of good games can sometimes be overstated. Case in point is this tweet, and the article to which it links:
#KPIBlog 1: The Non-Conference Mismatch. Only 7.8% of all non-conference games are between 2 top-5 conference teams: http://t.co/1okEvdyDUNThere are a few problems with this statement. First of all, it's a little strange that he doesn't include Notre Dame, since they are the main annual non-conference opponent for many top-5 conference teams (which I will refer to as B5 for the rest of this section). Secondly, BYU is basically in the same boat as Notre Dame now, with non-conference contests against a lot of pretty good B5 teams like Utah, Georgia Tech, Texas, and Wisconsin (not to mention ND). Thirdly, a couple of the B5 leagues (Pac 12 and Big 12) play nine conference games, which means that those leagues have fewer non-conference games in the first place, which will skew the overall percentage of non-conference games towards the smaller conferences. Even if all of the B5 teams played half of their games against other B5 teams (a reasonable expectation, since that group makes up about half of FBS), only a little more than 15% of non-conference games would be played between two B5 teams. This shows that the divide between the current state and ideal state of scheduling isn't as wide as the 7.8% number alone would have you believe.
— KPIsports (@KPIsports) October 9, 2013
In sum, I would say that the author buries the lede when it comes to the root of non-conference scheduling problems. If you click through to the article, you will see that he mentions that "34.4% of all non-conference games (this season) will involve FCS teams." I wouldn't necessarily advocate for completely throwing these games away; they do send a lot of money to programs in need of it, and the little guys even get wins out of these games occasionally. Rather, I would like to see the number of these games greatly reduced. Hopefully, the upcoming playoff (and the playoff committee that comes with it) will encourage teams to shift the balance back towards stronger non-conference scheduling.
SEC Dominance
Much has been made over the last eight years about the SEC's dominance over the rest of college football. While the margin of separation between them and other conferences has been overstated, the SEC has indeed been the best conference ever since their BCS title streak began. That said, we might be seeing a small changing of the guard this year. With the sudden improvements at programs like Washington and UCLA, the PAC-12 may actually be the best conference this year. For some evidence, here is a chart that shows the average F/+ rating by conference for the past seven years:
A simple average of the ratings probably isn't the best methodology, but it is simple and transparent, so we'll go with that for now. As you can see from the chart, the SEC has been the best conference every year from 2007 to 2012, and has occasionally towered over the rest. This year though, we are starting to see a challenger arise from the West. The Pac-12 hasn't seen this level of play since the tail end of the USC dynasty. A few lean years gave way to a new group of coaches that have mostly succeeded in bringing the conference back. Since we are almost out of non-conference games, most of the differentiation between the conferences at this point will take place in the big remaining non-conference games like Stanford-ND and Florida-FSU. It will be interesting to watch and see if the SEC "dynasty" finally comes to an end this year.
Weekend Predictions
Wisconsin 52, Northwestern 28
I've heard a lot of narratives that say Northwestern will be too exhausted from the Ohio State game, both mentally and physically, to win this game. While I don't normally subscribe to such theories, that could certainly be true. Regardless of that, I simply think that Wisconsin is the better team, and I don't think the Wildcats have the ability to consistently stop a team as physical as the Badgers. If Wisconsin does win this game, they'll have a good chance at getting to 10 wins, because look at this. I honestly think they have as good of a chance of winning the rest of their regular season games as anyone not named Alabama.
Missouri 35, Georgia 31
We all know that Georgia will be without their two best running backs, and a couple of their top receivers. Still, Aaron Murray has improved to the point that I'm nervous to pick against him. I'll continue to ride my "surprise" team here, but don't be surprised if Mizzou's big upset (or upsets) happens in the next two weeks instead, at home against Florida and/or South Carolina.
LSU 27, Florida 17
This is probably the hardest game to pick, in part because of the imbalance between the different sides of the ball that I mentioned earlier for Florida. While LSU won't have the best unit on the field, they are far more balanced than the Gators (6th in offensive efficiency, 13th on defense). Loucheiz Purifoy is a great cover corner, but he can only cover one of the Odell Beckham Jr./Jarvis Landry duo. I can see Florida limiting LSU's offense, but not quite enough to get the win.
Oregon 38, Washington 31
I didn't write anything about Washington meteoric rise in the predictions section, because I never even mentioned them in my preseason post. In my defense, they had basically been the most average team in the nation for the past decade (excluding that 0-12 season). Thus, when they turned into a championship-level team overnight (7th in Sagarin, 11th in F/+), I was a little surprised. Oregon is still the better team, but they will get one of their biggest tests of the season here. Mariota should outpace Keith Price in the battle of QBs, but the Huskies defense and the insanity of Washington's home field advantage should keep it close.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)