College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 8

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	83.56%	-5.9%
2	Michigan	4	49.43%	3.3%
3	Oklahoma	6	44.10%	-8.1%
4	Ohio State	3	43.20%	7.7%
5	Alabama	2	43.07%	9.6%
6	Notre Dame	14	27.34%	4.4%
7	Michigan State	19	17.97%	0.3%
8	Pitt	7	17.74%	4.1%
9	Ole Miss	13	17.26%	6.5%
10	Oregon	21	11.73%	6.5%
11	Wake Forest	33	9.90%	4.1%
12	Kentucky	31	8.27%	-0.9%
13	Oklahoma State	26	8.20%	-3.0%
14	Baylor	23	4.70%	0.3%
15	Iowa	18	4.68%	-2.5%
16	Cincinnati	10	2.55%	-0.8%
17	Texas A&M	11	1.73%	0.7%
18	Iowa State	9	1.17%	0.0%
19	Penn State	12	1.00%	-16.9%
20	Virginia	28	0.67%	0.5%
21	North Carolina State	20	0.42%	-4.0%
22	Arizona State	27	0.41%	-0.4%
23	UTSA	58	0.34%	0.1%
24	San Diego State	59	0.24%	0.1%
25	Auburn	16	0.13%	-0.1%
26	Oregon State	49	0.07%	0.0%
27	SMU	39	0.07%	0.0%
28	Minnesota	35	0.05%	0.0%

A quiet week leaves everyone other than Penn State (lol) roughly where they were.  The second-biggest fall was by a team that won (Oklahoma) and the third-biggest was by a team that didn't play (Georgia).  So Week 8 was mostly a détente before the real stuff starts to happen.  As for Cincy, I think I have a plan.  If the committee shows them proper respect when the first rankings come out (say, top six), I will treat them as a one-loss team instead of as a two-loss team, like I do for the Group of Five.  This feels like a proper acknowledgment that they have followed the long-hypothetical path for a non-power team to make the Playoff (ie. be good one year, get ranked high, and then be even better).

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Wake Forest	35.7%		North Carolina State	33.0%
ACCC	Pitt	85.9%		Virginia	10.9%
AMER	Cincinnati	89.8%		Houston	70.7%
B10E	Ohio State	65.2%		Michigan	26.9%
B10W	Iowa	48.0%		Minnesota	27.1%
B12	Oklahoma	82.8%		Iowa State	44.4%
CUSAE	Marshall	32.1%		Florida Atlantic	32.0%
CUSAW	UTSA	82.7%		UAB	14.1%
MACE	Miami (OH)	47.0%		Kent State	42.3%
MACW	Northern Illinois	46.2%		Toledo	26.3%
MWCW	San Diego State	51.2%		Fresno State	33.9%
MWCM	Utah State	48.0%		Air Force	21.3%
P12N	Oregon	66.7%		Oregon State	22.0%
P12S	Utah	55.1%		Arizona State	36.2%
SECE	Georgia	99.1%		Kentucky	0.9%
SECW	Alabama	81.8%		Ole Miss	6.9%
SUNE	Appalachian State	65.0%		Coastal Carolina	32.5%
SUNW	Louisiana	99.7%		ULM	0.2%

I want to highlight two surprisingly good conference races.  First, there is the ACC Atlantic.  It may seem like Wake-NC State will decide it all, but unfortunately Clemson still exists.  The Tigers still have a date with the Demon Deacons, which means their 27% chance to win the division that hinges on winning that game.  Should be a fun race for the first time in forever.

Then there's the even crazier Big Ten West.  Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all have yet to play each other, and all three have a good chance to win the division (the Badgers sit at 23% with a computer rating of 17th in the nation).  Iowa should still be your favorite, but also realize that having Iowa as your favorite inherently invites chaos to the party.

This week's single sim is pretty straightforward.  Georgia, Cincy, Oklahoma, and a 12-1 Michigan that lost to a 9-4 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game (see what I told you) are the clear favorites for the Playoff.  The only two-loss teams with an argument are 10-2 Bama and 11-2 ACC champ Pitt, but neither of them can hold a candle to Michigan's romp through the regular season in perhaps the toughest division in the sport?

Week 9 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Michigan State	Michigan	37.9%	0.100
Georgia	Florida	77.2%	0.063
Auburn	Ole Miss	54.1%	0.047
Notre Dame	North Carolina	66.2%	0.046
Ohio State	Penn State	84.3%	0.042
Mississippi State	Kentucky	54.3%	0.022
Pitt	Miami (FL)	75.9%	0.021
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	86.3%	0.020
Wisconsin	Iowa	57.4%	0.013
Baylor	Texas	50.3%	0.012

Looks like a pretty darn good weekend and this grid doesn't even include down-ticket fun like Houston-SMU, BYU-Virginia, UCLA-Utah, and the least consequential Clemson-FSU game in recent memory.  You may be struck by the relatively high odds of Florida beating the #1 team in the nation, but do remember a) they almost beat Bama like a month ago and b) the computers still have them 5th (!), so don't bury them yet.  Also previously unbeaten darlings Iowa and Kentucky are road dogs to Wisconsin and Mississippi State, so don't be surprised if there is more "carnage" for teams that weren't going to make the Playoff anyway.

Who Speaks for Palestine?

The latest proxy battle in the Israel-Palestine conflict came and passed this week.  This one took the form of a dispute between famed author Sally Rooney and an Israeli publisher.  While Rooney's previous two books had been printed with a Hebrew translation, this book as of now has not.  This relatively niche issue would normally not be a major concern, but an op-ed published on Monday suggested something more sinister.  The original edit of the article says that Rooney wouldn't allow a Hebrew translation at all and suggests a sinister motive:

"I’m not suggesting that Rooney is antisemitic, or that criticism of Israel automatically constitutes antisemitism. But given the rise of antisemitism in recent years, especially in Europe, the timing of her choice is dangerous."

To be clear, the article presents precisely zero proof of antisemitism or anything resembling it, so that final paragraph reads more as a less-than-good faith smear than as a genuine concern.  Furthermore, it became clear the very next day that its entire central premise was incorrect.  Rooney's decision was not in fact a blanket dismissal of publishing the book in Israel, but rather a decision to avoid the specific publisher in concordance with the demands of the BDS movement:

full statement from Sally Rooney on choosing to boycott an Israeli publishing house, via her agent: pic.twitter.com/q3CMAG4NKT

— Mari Cohen (@maricohen95) October 12, 2021

This kerfuffle soon got picked up by mainstream outlets like the New York Times.  The summary of the issue in the linked article is mostly fine, but there is one very peculiar thing that undermines its purpose.  Specifically, it quotes precisely one person not directly involved, a literary agent who has a very clear opinion on the matter:

"Deborah Harris, a literary agent whose company handles major authors looking to be translated and published in Israel, described Ms. Rooney’s decision as painful and counterproductive.

“When it’s ice cream or when it’s cement, or whatever else it is, it’s one thing, but when it comes to culture, I just have a very, very hard time seeing how this can be productive in changing anything,” Ms. Harris said. “What literature is supposed to do is reach into the hearts and minds of people. ”

Those likely to read Ms. Rooney’s work in Israel, Ms. Harris added, are not those who support the policies to which she likely objects. “Her audience here are people who are in total support of a Palestinian state,” Ms. Harris said."

The argument she makes is itself ridiculous and contradictory (literature is supposed to change hearts and minds but also no one who needs such a change would read the book?), but the more critical issue is what such reporting omits.  Its lack of critical analysis omits proof of the suspicious "total support of a Palestinian state" quote.  Its assumption that the "hearts and minds" quote is true omits an acknowledgment that other, likely more valid theories of change exist.  And most importantly, it omits the voices of BDS supporters and even Palestinians in general.  Such a blinkered portrait of the dispute at best conveys an incomplete understanding of what happened and at worst launders the prevailing ideology of the ruling class through a seemingly neutral medium.

This all comes full circle with the publication that started this choosing to monetize the rot by hearing both sides.  The follow-up piece is much more fair to Rooney and as such is not completely awful, but once again whatever utility it may have is undermined, this time by an appeal to what is effectively nihilism in its closing paragraph:

"Rooney gets what the conversation around her doesn’t, which is that every part of this saga — her boycott, the backlash, the backlash against the backlash — is a gesture of almost monumental insignificance. It’s just a means for those engaged in it, including Rooney herself, to feel some sense of control in chaos without making much or any difference at all."

This echoes the quote from NYT, but in a more pervasive and all-encompassing way.  It conflates Rooney's purposeful adherence to an organized boycott with...posting about it?  It appears to assume that because Rooney's boycott didn't immediately lead to Palestinian liberation, her actions were worthless.  It's a sort of existential begging of the question that's common to our time, where it is seemingly easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism/imperialism/etc.  More than anything, I think that this sense of fundamental despair is what corporate media is designed to impart to the masses (or perhaps it just does this unintentionally, but with the implicit support of those in power).  This episode with Sally Rooney is a prime illustration of how a clearly principled action can be rhetorically ground into nothing.  You may not be able to stop them from promoting this cynical view of the world, but you can at least refuse to accept it.

College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 6

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	89.45%	9.3%
2	Michigan	5	46.98%	5.5%
3	Oklahoma	6	46.38%	3.2%
4	Ohio State	3	33.85%	10.4%
5	Iowa	12	32.50%	8.5%
6	Alabama	2	29.74%	-42.8%
7	Notre Dame	14	23.39%	11.3%
8	Penn State	8	17.38%	-14.2%
9	Michigan State	15	16.24%	7.6%
10	Kentucky	34	8.90%	4.4%
11	Pitt	11	8.38%	-0.2%
12	Arizona State	20	6.27%	1.7%
13	Ole Miss	16	5.83%	-2.9%
14	Oregon	22	5.61%	-0.3%
15	Wake Forest	38	5.39%	2.0%
16	Oklahoma State	33	4.42%	1.6%
17	Clemson	7	3.97%	0.0%
18	Cincinnati	10	2.94%	0.4%
19	Florida	4	2.63%	0.1%
20	Baylor	26	2.46%	1.9%
21	North Carolina State	27	2.07%	0.3%
22	Boston College	40	0.94%	0.0%
23	Iowa State	9	0.94%	0.3%
24	Texas	13	0.83%	-4.1%
25	Texas A&M	17	0.68%	0.6%
26	Utah	29	0.52%	0.4%
27	Arkansas	24	0.23%	-2.4%
28	Coastal Carolina	25	0.23%	0.0%
29	UTSA	73	0.14%	0.1%
30	UCLA	37	0.14%	0.0%
31	SMU	39	0.12%	0.0%
32	San Diego State	58	0.10%	0.0%
33	Virginia	45	0.09%	0.0%
34	Auburn	21	0.06%	-0.6%
35	Tennessee	19	0.05%	0.0%
36	Maryland	60	0.03%	-0.1%
37	TCU	30	0.03%	0.0%
38	Oregon State	55	0.02%	-0.8%
39	Kansas State	49	0.02%	0.0%
40	Mississippi State	31	0.02%	0.0%
41	Virginia Tech	47	0.01%	-0.4%
42	Texas Tech	62	0.01%	-0.3%
43	Minnesota	48	0.00%	0.0%
44	Purdue	53	0.00%	0.0%

A big weekend leads to some big swings.  Georgia passes a test and goes up.  Bama doesn't pass a test and goes down (and makes it slightly more likely that Georgia won't even have to play them).  Iowa's "big" win pushes them into the top five.  And Notre Dame continues to hang around on the strength of a good (but not too good) schedule.  Cincinnati is probably underrated at this point as they are clearly stronger than your average Group of Five contender, but let's at least wait a few weeks to start sweating the Bearcats.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	42.9%		North Carolina State	31.6%
ACCC	Pitt	71.8%		Virginia Tech	11.9%
AMER	Cincinnati	87.9%		Houston	70.7%
B10E	Ohio State	58.2%		Michigan	26.8%
B10W	Iowa	85.6%		Wisconsin	8.7%
B12	Oklahoma	84.3%		Texas	35.9%
CUSAE	Marshall	31.8%		Florida Atlantic	28.2%
CUSAW	UTSA	44.6%		UAB	39.5%
MACE	Kent State	61.9%		Miami (OH)	28.9%
MACW	Toledo	45.0%		Northern Illinois	23.9%
MWCW	San Diego State	41.8%		Nevada	28.9%
MWCM	Boise State	40.3%		Air Force	20.4%
P12N	Oregon	51.9%		Washington	21.2%
P12S	Arizona State	58.5%		Utah	36.2%
SECE	Georgia	92.0%		Kentucky	6.0%
SECW	Alabama	74.9%		Ole Miss	6.9%
SUNE	Coastal Carolina	53.9%		Appalachian State	45.2%
SUNW	Louisiana	96.7%		Texas State	2.6%

Louisiana was the most likely team to win their division when I ran this on Sunday and then they went out and aced their biggest test, so that number is probably like 99% now.  The major conferences are starting to pare down the contenders, so it's pretty fun that the CUSA, MAC, and Mountain West are all wide open.  Also, here is your weekly reminder that Pitt is going to win the ACC.

Bama's loss allows the weekly sim to start getting a little weirder.  Sure, the Playoff here would almost certainly be Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon, but maybe Pitt or Cincy would have an argument?  The more fun thing here is seeing Oklahoma go 10-2 and miss the Big 12 title game entirely.  Or Iowa's total faceplant to a 10-3 finish.  Weird things can (and will) still happen!

Week 7 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Georgia	Kentucky	93.4%	0.048
Oklahoma	TCU	79.2%	0.032
Mississippi State	Alabama	17.3%	0.026
Utah	Arizona State	49.7%	0.018
Iowa	Purdue	83.3%	0.018
Indiana	Michigan State	32.7%	0.018
Tennessee	Ole Miss	55.7%	0.016
Texas	Oklahoma State	72.1%	0.013
Virginia Tech	Pitt	28.2%	0.012
Boston College	North Carolina State	47.4%	0.007

This weekend is thinner than Week 5 and lacks the top-line strength of Week 6.  I can still get a little excited, though.  Iowa has a 1 in 6 chance of losing at home to Purdue!  Cincy plays UCF!  Arizona State and Utah battle for a likely division title!  OK none of that is that exciting, but it's good enough for a freak like me.