| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 75.69% | -6.3% |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 69.41% | 2.7% |
| 3 | Alabama | 2 | 58.86% | 11.8% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 5 | 43.03% | 0.4% |
| 5 | Penn State | 7 | 38.40% | 8.1% |
| 6 | LSU | 6 | 35.69% | 1.7% |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 3 | 35.18% | 15.4% |
| 8 | Oregon | 9 | 11.98% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 11 | 11.43% | 2.0% |
| 10 | Auburn | 10 | 6.36% | -0.7% |
| 11 | Georgia | 8 | 4.86% | -26.1% |
| 12 | Florida | 12 | 4.03% | -7.6% |
| 13 | Utah | 13 | 1.36% | 0.7% |
| 14 | Baylor | 26 | 1.10% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Minnesota | 27 | 0.78% | 0.5% |
| 16 | Michigan | 15 | 0.77% | -0.1% |
| 17 | Washington | 14 | 0.32% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Boise State | 28 | 0.21% | 0.1% |
| 19 | Wake Forest | 47 | 0.18% | -1.6% |
| 20 | Texas | 18 | 0.09% | -0.5% |
| 21 | Arizona State | 34 | 0.09% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Iowa | 20 | 0.05% | -0.4% |
| 23 | Iowa State | 17 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Appalachian State | 49 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 25 | SMU | 41 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 26 | California | 46 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Oklahoma State | 25 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Virginia | 38 | 0.01% | -0.2% |
| 29 | Pitt | 56 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Indiana | 36 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Duke | 42 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Louisville | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Kansas State | 37 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 34 | TCU | 30 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 35 | North Carolina State | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Virginia Tech | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Arizona | 55 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Georgia lost so they went down. Ohio State didn't play so they lost a little bit of ground to the other top teams that all past tests of varying difficulty. That's really it this week. The top seven teams are all undefeated and thus are easily the seven teams most likely to the make the Playoff. So straightforward that I don't have anything else to say.
2. A big week for eliminations subtracts Michigan State, Memphis, Syracuse, USC, Florida State, Texas A&M, Washington State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Maryland, Colorado, and West Virginia from the list. I knew the Huskers were a tad overhyped in year two of the Frost era, but I really thought the offense would be better than this. Oh well.
3. The conference title grid remains much less straightforward. There are four whole divisions where the "favorite" is still less than 40% to win the division (in large part because these are generally not the best divisions). These break down as such:
ACC Coastal: Virginia 33%, UNC 28%, Duke 15%, Pitt 12%, Miami 10%
American West: SMU 37%, Memphis 22%, Tulane 20%, Navy 20%
CUSA West: Southern Miss 39%, Louisiana Tech 37%, North Texas 13%, UAB 11%
MAC East: Ohio 39%, Kent State(!) 29%, Miami 28%
In other news, Baylor pulls into second in the Big 12 with Texas (32%) and Iowa State (22%) just behind. And the Arizona loss turns the Pac 12 South back into a two-horse race (probably).
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 98.8% | Wake Forest | 0.5% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 33.2% | North Carolina | 28.5% | |
| AMEE | Cincinnati | 81.3% | Central Florida | 14.1% | |
| AMEW | SMU | 36.8% | Memphis | 22.2% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 75.9% | Penn State | 22.0% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 84.8% | Minnesota | 10.4% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 93.9% | Baylor | 44.5% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 52.2% | Western Kentucky | 33.1% | |
| CUSAW | Southern Miss | 38.9% | Louisiana Tech | 36.8% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 38.7% | Kent State | 29.3% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 43.6% | Toledo | 28.8% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 45.8% | Hawaii | 30.5% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 73.3% | Utah State | 21.1% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 90.1% | Washington | 8.8% | |
| P12S | Utah | 54.4% | USC | 35.2% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 52.0% | Florida | 36.9% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 73.0% | LSU | 22.2% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 90.9% | Georgia State | 6.2% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 61.6% | Arkansas State | 27.2% |
Week 8 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Penn State | Michigan | 76.3% | 0.033 |
| Washington | Oregon | 41.0% | 0.026 |
| Mississippi State | LSU | 15.9% | 0.019 |
| Louisville | Clemson | 7.3% | 0.017 |
| Northwestern | Ohio State | 3.6% | 0.009 |
| South Carolina | Florida | 37.9% | 0.008 |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | 96.2% | 0.005 |
| Alabama | Tennessee | 97.6% | 0.005 |
| Illinois | Wisconsin | 2.7% | 0.003 |
| Arkansas | Auburn | 7.4% | 0.002 |
This is a fine week. No real "big" games, but a good depth of fine games. Four top-ten teams go on the road against massive underdogs, so it will be a good chance to see disgusted fans if nothing else. Outside of the top ten, we also have Baylor-Oklahoma State, Utah-Arizona State, a weirdly important Virginia-Duke game, and a bunch of fun in the American (Memphis-Tulane and SMU-Temple).
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