| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 2 | 64.68% | -7.6% |
| 2 | Alabama | 1 | 63.19% | -0.9% |
| 3 | Clemson | 5 | 46.12% | 13.8% |
| 4 | Michigan | 4 | 43.35% | 15.4% |
| 5 | Louisville | 3 | 38.58% | 9.2% |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 6 | 25.14% | 4.9% |
| 7 | Florida State | 7 | 21.31% | 7.7% |
| 8 | Tennessee | 12 | 18.78% | 3.4% |
| 9 | Stanford | 8 | 14.13% | 3.7% |
| 10 | Washington | 11 | 9.55% | -2.2% |
| 11 | Miami (FL) | 15 | 6.16% | -0.7% |
| 12 | Boise State | 24 | 5.41% | 1.4% |
| 13 | Baylor | 17 | 5.28% | -0.3% |
| 14 | Wisconsin | 19 | 5.12% | -1.3% |
| 15 | Nebraska | 22 | 3.25% | -1.9% |
| 16 | Western Michigan | 43 | 2.96% | 0.3% |
| 17 | West Virginia | 29 | 2.68% | -1.5% |
| 18 | Utah | 39 | 2.23% | -2.1% |
| 19 | Arizona State | 48 | 2.12% | 1.3% |
| 20 | Houston | 13 | 2.10% | 0.5% |
| 21 | Ole Miss | 9 | 2.06% | 0.7% |
| 22 | San Diego State | 54 | 1.92% | -0.1% |
| 23 | Arkansas | 32 | 1.79% | -5.8% |
| 24 | Toledo | 41 | 1.37% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Colorado | 31 | 1.08% | -0.4% |
| 26 | Michigan State | 53 | 0.96% | -3.3% |
| 27 | Florida | 16 | 0.85% | -4.3% |
| 28 | LSU | 14 | 0.82% | -5.1% |
| 29 | Georgia | 52 | 0.71% | -4.0% |
| 30 | Maryland | 61 | 0.65% | -0.8% |
| 31 | North Carolina | 25 | 0.60% | -0.3% |
| 32 | Georgia Tech | 49 | 0.59% | -0.2% |
| 33 | Kansas State | 33 | 0.51% | -0.2% |
| 34 | Virginia Tech | 21 | 0.44% | -0.1% |
| 35 | TCU | 20 | 0.44% | -0.1% |
| 36 | Air Force | 70 | 0.42% | -0.2% |
| 37 | Memphis | 38 | 0.42% | -0.2% |
| 38 | Texas Tech | 45 | 0.39% | -0.2% |
| 39 | Wake Forest | 58 | 0.36% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Oklahoma | 10 | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Iowa | 27 | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Auburn | 18 | 0.20% | -0.2% |
| 43 | Texas | 35 | 0.16% | -0.2% |
| 44 | North Carolina State | 46 | 0.15% | -0.1% |
| 45 | Minnesota | 55 | 0.10% | -3.4% |
| 46 | UCLA | 23 | 0.06% | -2.5% |
| 47 | Washington State | 44 | 0.06% | 0.1% |
| 48 | Missouri | 40 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Oregon | 30 | 0.04% | -1.1% |
| 50 | Oklahoma State | 26 | 0.03% | -1.4% |
| 51 | Penn State | 51 | 0.03% | -1.8% |
| 52 | Pitt | 36 | 0.03% | -1.0% |
| 53 | Navy | 68 | 0.00% | -0.6% |
| 54 | Indiana | 65 | 0.00% | -1.3% |
| 55 | Purdue | 86 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 56 | California | 50 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 57 | Mississippi State | 47 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 58 | South Carolina | 71 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Arizona | 56 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Rutgers | 89 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Oregon State | 85 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Boston College | 76 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Vanderbilt | 73 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Duke | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Illinois | 81 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Syracuse | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Kansas | 104 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Kentucky | 83 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. I meant to address this last week, but the oddest thing about the current rankings is Clemson appearing ahead of Louisville in spite of a lower computer rating and a more difficult path to an undefeated season (largely because they haven't played FSU yet). That said, there's a simple explanation: SOS. Factoring in the likelihood of reaching the ACC title game, Clemson has a significant edge in projected SOS, .574 to .521, which will benefit them should both teams finish with one loss. Part of this advantage is Clemson's slightly better non-conference schedule: Houston is a huge prize for Louisville, but they play in the American, which hurts their SOS contribution. Clemson's opponent duo of Auburn and South Carolina isn't as flashy, but the former is decent, and both boast strong SEC schedules. That said, the main reason for the difference is varying cross-division games, which see Louisville playing the two worst teams in the Coastal, Virginia and Duke.* I would hope the committee would avoid judging the Cardinals accomplishments based on something completely outside of their control, but for now, we should probably assume they wouldn't.
*This sentence fragment is why you always use the Oxford comma
2. I've never seen better evidence of a gap between great teams and good teams than Florida State. They sit at a modest 7th in the computer aggregate and have a loss, but still sit at seventh in the playoff odds.* That the teams below them can't pass them shows how likely it is that a quartet from the current top seven make the playoff.
*Once again, good projected SOS is the culprit. A non-conference slate of Ole Miss, Florida, and South Florida combined with cross-division games against UNC and Miami make for a strong argument if they finish 11-1, and a still decent one if they're 10-2.
3. We wave goodbye to BYU, Northwestern, South Florida, Central Michigan, Army, and Georgia Southern this week. Oh, and two small schools from California and Indiana that no one's ever heard of. No, don't ask.
4. The conference playoff race is as clear as ever as there is almost exactly a 50% chance of one conference getting two teams, and roughly even odds across the top three conferences. In other "power" conference news, the Pac-12 is down to the Stanford-Washington winner, unless Utah can avoid being precisely the 27th best team in the country for like the eighth straight year. And the Big 12 is garbage, but you already knew that.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| B10 | 1.184 |
| ACC | 1.143 |
| SEC | 1.136 |
| P12 | 0.293 |
| B12 | 0.098 |
| MWC | 0.078 |
| MAC | 0.043 |
| AMER | 0.025 |
5. I guess I could keep showing different conference races in this space each week, but I am too fascinated by the Pac 12 South race to do anything else, so here is this presented without further comment:
| Team | Division Odds |
| UCLA | 33.2% |
| Colorado | 33.0% |
| Utah | 20.5% |
| Arizona State | 7.5% |
| USC | 4.7% |
| Arizona | 1.2% |
Week 5 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Clemson | Louisville | 46.7% | 0.142 |
| Washington | Stanford | 52.3% | 0.040 |
| Michigan | Wisconsin | 84.2% | 0.037 |
| Florida State | North Carolina | 78.2% | 0.026 |
| Georgia | Tennessee | 25.3% | 0.018 |
| South Carolina | Texas A&M | 9.6% | 0.008 |
| Georgia Tech | Miami (FL) | 28.4% | 0.008 |
| West Virginia | Kansas State | 59.7% | 0.005 |
| USC | Arizona State | 70.9% | 0.005 |
| Ole Miss | Memphis | 82.2% | 0.005 |
Week 5 features the first real decisive showdown of the year. If Louisville can pull off the win in Death Valley, they will have their division all but locked up. Due to their aforementioned SOS problems, this doesn't mean they're a lock to make the playoff should they stumble against Houston. But still, they'll be the clear playoff team from the ACC, with the FSU-Clemson winner maintaining a puncher's chance. The next two games are obviously important, but Kansas State-West Virginia catches my eye the most, as it feels like a sneakily important game in the Big 12 race.
