Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 13

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Ohio State	1	95.1%	1.7%
2	Clemson	2	89.9%	-0.6%
3	LSU	4	84.6%	-1.1%
4	Georgia	5	42.9%	12.3%
5	Oklahoma	7	27.9%	7.3%
6	Utah	11	14.6%	3.4%
7	Penn State	6	9.9%	-9.6%
8	Baylor	19	9.0%	5.3%
9	Alabama	3	9.0%	-1.3%
10	Florida	9	6.8%	-0.8%
11	Notre Dame	14	3.8%	0.7%
12	Minnesota	17	2.3%	-0.6%
13	Michigan	8	2.2%	0.7%
14	Oregon	13	1.3%	-17.7%
15	Wisconsin	12	0.8%	0.0%

1.  Once again we got just one big upset, so things don't change too much.  Penn State is still propped up by a very good SOS, but in reality they would need basically all of the one-loss teams to lose again to make it.  Oklahoma and Utah both find themselves in decent enough shape, but realistically they need something to happen ahead of them.

2.  An eventful week shook out a lot of division winners.  UVA-VT and Minnesota-Wisconsin will decide their divisions this week, while WMU, Memphis, and Utah all face win-and-in scenarios.  And then there's the CUSA which boasts the only division with a three-team race (Southern Miss can still win the West).

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Virginia	63.4%		Virginia Tech	36.6%
AMEE	Cincinnati	100.0%
AMEW	Memphis	77.6%		Navy	22.4%
B10E	Ohio State	100.0%
B10W	Wisconsin	60.6%		Minnesota	39.4%
B12	Oklahoma	100.0%		Baylor	100.0%
CUSAE	Florida Atlantic	83.7%		Marshall	16.3%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	52.2%		UAB	39.3%
MACE	Miami (OH)	100.0%
MACW	Western Michigan	83.4%		Central Michigan	16.6%
MWCW	Hawaii	100.0%
MWCM	Boise State	100.0%
P12N	Oregon	100.0%
P12S	Utah	95.2%		USC	4.8%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	LSU	100.0%
SUNE	Appalachian State	100.0%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	100.0%

Week 14 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Michigan	Ohio State	22.9%	0.089
LSU	Texas A&M	82.8%	0.049
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma	25.0%	0.035
South Carolina	Clemson	7.4%	0.022
Auburn	Alabama	31.9%	0.014
Minnesota	Wisconsin	38.9%	0.010
Florida	Florida State	90.4%	0.007
Georgia Tech	Georgia	2.2%	0.005
Kansas	Baylor	9.8%	0.004
Stanford	Notre Dame	11.3%	0.004
Utah	Colorado	95.1%	0.004
Oregon	Oregon State	93.6%	0.001
Penn State	Rutgers	99.3%	0.001

Rivalry week is good as usual, but with a slightly different flavor.  There isn't really a single big game, but rather a bunch that have some potential to cause chaos.  Also, five of the top six games feature home underdogs which always gets me a little more excited, even when the odds are long.  Finally, the top six games are distributed evenly with two in each of the main Saturday time slots.  Should be fun.