| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 98.6% | 3.6% |
| 2 | Clemson | 2 | 95.1% | 5.2% |
| 3 | LSU | 4 | 91.7% | 7.1% |
| 4 | Georgia | 5 | 40.8% | -2.1% |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 6 | 26.8% | -1.1% |
| 6 | Utah | 10 | 15.6% | 1.0% |
| 7 | Baylor | 15 | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Penn State | 11 | 7.3% | -2.6% |
| 9 | Florida | 7 | 6.5% | -0.3% |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 14 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 8 | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 12 | Oregon | 13 | 1.2% | -0.1% |
| 13 | Minnesota | 19 | 0.9% | -1.4% |
| 14 | Alabama | 3 | 0.8% | -8.2% |
For the first time in the CFP era, Alabama will not be a part of the national title proceedings. Obviously this is a boon for everyone that is not a Crimson Tide fan, but 1) this was probably the most fun Alabama team of the Saban era so it's still a little sad, and 2) a one-loss Alabama would have been a fun test for my model. As you can tell from the table above, their SOS is garbage (their best win is....7-5 Texas A&M?), so my model thinks they would have been an unlikely selection at 11-1. At the same time, they're clearly one of the four "best" teams and the committee had them at #5 before the loss, suggesting they were one upset away from inclusion. At this rate, the committee is going to make it through the whole 4-team playoff era without having to make a truly difficult decision. Bully for them.
But not so fast my friend. The fifth and sixth spots in the Playoff odds hint at the possibility of selection day intrigue. Oklahoma has a mildly better SOS than Utah so they're ahead of them for now. Assuming a Georgia loss (don't actually assume this....their defense is gooood) and Utah/Oklahoma victories, the committee would have their first truly interesting decision on their hands. Oklahoma has played a better schedule (mostly because their conference is better), but Utah has absolutely destroyed everyone over the back half of the season. I would guess a 12-1 Oklahoma ultimately makes the cut, but....maybe they don't?
Championship Week Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| LSU | Georgia | 57.9% | 0.247 |
| Ohio State | Wisconsin | 84.3% | 0.073 |
| Oklahoma | Baylor | 69.5% | 0.072 |
| Utah | Oregon | 55.6% | 0.041 |
| Clemson | Virginia | 94.2% | 0.018 |
It may not look like there is potential for chaos this weekend. And indeed, Selection Sunday may end up being a pre-ordained decision. But all five major conference title games have Playoff implications, which is not something you can say every season. So let's see what flavor of chaos each game promises.
NO CHAOS: Ohio State-Wisconsin - It would certainly be weird if the Badgers beat perhaps the best team of the decade. But it wouldn't change the fact that Ohio State is already in the Playoff. The Buckeyes have three wins over 10-win teams, and road wins over Michigan and Indiana, and almost every single one of those contests has been a blowout. No result short of a Wisconsin landslide would change anything here and that's not happening. Sorry, I don't like it either.
THE ILLUSION OF CHAOS: LSU-Georgia - There's a perception that the Tigers are the best team in the nation, so an upset here would feel like something big. But LSU's defense has been mediocre enough to make this game a near coin flip. And if Georgia wins it's extremely likely that both teams make the field over other, weirder teams. So feel free to enjoy this game as a contest between two great teams, but don't expect anything earth-shattering to happen.
A TASTE OF CHAOS: Utah-Oregon - Utah will be 5th or 6th in the penultimate Playoff rankings when they are released tomorrow. This means that a Ute loss here doesn't equate to a sure Playoff team will get knocked out, especially because this game takes place before all the others. Still, an Oregon win would represent the first conference title loss by a "contender" to a "non-contender" in the Playoff era so don't write this game off.
SCHROEDINGER'S CHAOS: Oklahoma-Baylor - If the Sooners win this game and Georgia loses, they are probably in. Boring. If on the other hand Baylor wins this game, it clears the way for a Playoff that includes 3 13-0 juggernauts and...Baylor? Should Georgia, Oklahoma, and Utah all lose, the Bears would be the only one-loss team from a power conference so they would appear to be the obvious choice. This suggests the absence of chaos. But the committee would have to know that Baylor would be probably the worst team selected to the Playoff (you're off the hook 2014 Florida State!), which would mean fans of Penn State, Florida, and yes, Alabama could all get a little bit excited for the committee to put their foot down and select an (admittedly better but less "deserving") blue blood.
ALL OF THE CHAOS: Clemson-Virginia - Should the Cavaliers pull the massive upset, a 12-1 Clemson team is probably still one of the four "best" teams in the country. But the Tigers face the same problem that I described for Alabama earlier - their SOS is garbage. Clemson's best win in this scenario would somehow also be a 7-5 Texas A&M. The Tigers' second-best win would be...a thrashing of Wake Forest? A last-second win at North Carolina? Dabo's already been complaining about his team getting no respect...can you even imagine what would happen if they lose and end up #5? Fingers crossed.
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