| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 93.08% | -1.7% |
| 2 | Clemson | 3 | 90.43% | 4.2% |
| 3 | LSU | 4 | 85.77% | 1.2% |
| 4 | Georgia | 5 | 30.55% | 13.2% |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 6 | 20.57% | 2.4% |
| 6 | Penn State | 7 | 19.50% | -0.3% |
| 7 | Oregon | 8 | 18.99% | -4.5% |
| 8 | Utah | 13 | 11.18% | 2.4% |
| 9 | Alabama | 2 | 10.35% | -2.9% |
| 10 | Florida | 9 | 7.59% | 1.2% |
| 11 | Baylor | 21 | 3.70% | -6.3% |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 14 | 3.17% | 0.6% |
| 13 | Minnesota | 19 | 2.86% | -6.3% |
| 14 | Michigan | 10 | 1.45% | 0.4% |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 12 | 0.81% | -0.8% |
1. A complete lack of high-end upsets means that very little changes this week. Georgia passes a big test so they climb. Baylor and Minnesota are no longer undefeated so they both become even longer longshots. Oregon falls slightly because it's looking more likely that they will have to face a difficult Utah to finish their season, decreasing their odds of finishing 12-1. And Bama falls a bit not because of the Tua injury (I mean it hurts them in reality, but that part of reality is not incorporated into my model), but because all the other teams got one step closer to finishing 13-0 or 12-1.
2. Indiana, Wake Forest, and Auburn were all eliminated this week. Three programs that are all of the same exact quality and import.
3. Conference races are starting to (mostly) sort out. Oregon and Georgia both clinched this weekend and LSU just has to beat a putrid Arkansas next week to seal their bid. Oklahoma and Baylor are all but assured of a re-match for the Big 12 title. And a number of these top-two teams will face off to possibly decide their divisions in the coming weeks....OSU-PSU, Cincy-Temple, and Boise-USU are this week followed by UVA-VT and Wisconsin-Minnesota after Thanksgiving.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 100.0% | |||
| ACCC | Virginia | 65.9% | Virginia Tech | 22.5% | |
| AMEE | Cincinnati | 91.6% | Temple | 6.0% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 60.5% | Navy | 23.3% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 84.9% | Penn State | 15.1% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 58.0% | Minnesota | 41.9% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 98.2% | Baylor | 97.7% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 67.4% | Florida Atlantic | 31.5% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 76.8% | Southern Miss | 14.7% | |
| MACE | Miami (OH) | 74.1% | Ohio | 25.8% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 72.5% | Central Michigan | 22.3% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 53.8% | Hawaii | 45.0% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 77.8% | Utah State | 13.2% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 100.0% | |||
| P12S | Utah | 90.4% | USC | 9.6% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 100.0% | |||
| SECW | LSU | 99.8% | Alabama | 0.2% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 92.5% | Georgia Southern | 7.4% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 98.9% | Arkansas State | 1.0% |
Week 13 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Ohio State | Penn State | 85.0% | 0.129 |
| Georgia | Texas A&M | 80.6% | 0.030 |
| Arizona State | Oregon | 15.6% | 0.015 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 88.1% | 0.012 |
| Baylor | Texas | 61.5% | 0.007 |
| Arizona | Utah | 7.6% | 0.004 |
| Indiana | Michigan | 24.8% | 0.004 |
| LSU | Arkansas | 98.9% | 0.003 |
| Notre Dame | Boston College | 92.3% | 0.002 |
| Northwestern | Minnesota | 12.7% | 0.002 |
| Wisconsin | Purdue | 94.2% | 0.000 |
As usual, the week before Thanksgiving is not super deep. But OSU-PSU will be a whole meal itself and there's enough mildly interesting stuff happening elsewhere (including the Group of Five games I mentioned earlier) to make it an above average weekend.
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