Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 11

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Ohio State	1	94.81%	2.6%
2	Clemson	3	86.20%	5.5%
3	LSU	4	84.52%	24.7%
4	Oregon	8	23.46%	9.1%
5	Penn State	6	19.82%	-48.4%
6	Oklahoma	7	18.20%	6.5%
7	Georgia	5	17.39%	8.1%
8	Alabama	2	13.21%	-32.9%
9	Baylor	21	10.01%	6.4%
10	Minnesota	18	9.19%	7.1%
11	Utah	13	8.77%	4.1%
12	Florida	11	6.35%	3.6%
13	Auburn	9	2.73%	1.0%
14	Notre Dame	14	2.59%	1.5%
15	Wisconsin	10	1.61%	1.1%
16	Michigan	12	1.08%	0.3%
17	Indiana	32	0.02%	0.0%
18	Wake Forest	50	0.02%	-0.2%

1.  The top three are the top three.  LSU has a great SOS, Clemson has an easy path to 13-0, and Ohio State has both of those things (in part because they are now almost seven points clear of the next best team).  The battle behind those teams is interesting.  Oregon has a slight advantage because of a viable path to 12-1 (46% chance of winning out).  Penn State still has the SOS to make a 12-1 Nittany Lion team a virtual lock.  And Oklahoma and Georgia are somewhere in between those two paths with enough big games in the next four weeks to make the requisite amount of noise.  Alabama falls a long way because their SOS is just bad (all the way down to .506).  Never count the Tide out, but they will probably need some help if they hope to make the field at 11-1.

2.  Iowa and Kansas State got eliminated with their third losses.  The corn belt's hopes now rest almost entirely on Minnesota (we don't have much corn here in Columbus unless you count this).  By the way, 11 of the 18 remaining teams are from the Big Ten and SEC.

3.  Congrats to Clemson on becoming the first team to clinch their division in 2019.  Their division has fewer top-45 teams than the Sun Belt, so that might have something to do with it.  Louisiana Tech was the main beneficiary of UAB's massive loss to Southern Miss, which makes the Bulldogs the first team to look like a legit favorite in the CUSA in years.  Ohio and San Diego State both lost but their divisions are butt so they are still slight favorites.  And you can probably start preparing for an LSU-Georgia game in Atlanta.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Virginia	75.7%		Virginia Tech	13.1%
AMEE	Cincinnati	96.6%		Temple	1.8%
AMEW	Memphis	44.6%		Navy	35.0%
B10E	Ohio State	86.2%		Penn State	13.7%
B10W	Minnesota	65.9%		Wisconsin	33.9%
B12	Oklahoma	93.1%		Baylor	92.9%
CUSAE	Florida Atlantic	60.1%		Marshall	38.2%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	91.9%		Southern Miss	5.3%
MACE	Ohio	50.0%		Miami (OH)	45.9%
MACW	Western Michigan	44.5%		Ball State	22.5%
MWCW	San Diego State	42.6%		Fresno State	29.0%
MWCM	Boise State	83.7%		Utah State	9.5%
P12N	Oregon	100.0%		Oregon State	0.0%
P12S	Utah	85.8%		USC	12.7%
SECE	Georgia	93.7%		Florida	6.2%
SECW	LSU	99.1%		Alabama	0.9%
SUNE	Appalachian State	85.3%		Georgia State	7.5%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	98.2%		Louisiana-Monroe	1.0%

Week 12 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Auburn	Georgia	47.6%	0.056
Baylor	Oklahoma	27.5%	0.049
Ole Miss	LSU	7.7%	0.022
Iowa	Minnesota	58.7%	0.018
Missouri	Florida	25.8%	0.016
Penn State	Indiana	89.0%	0.011
Clemson	Wake Forest	96.4%	0.011
Mississippi State	Alabama	9.1%	0.006
Notre Dame	Navy	79.5%	0.005
Oregon	Arizona	95.7%	0.005
Utah	UCLA	90.0%	0.004
Michigan	Michigan State	81.4%	0.002
Nebraska	Wisconsin	10.7%	0.002
Rutgers	Ohio State	0.2%	0.001

Did I expand the grid to all of this week's relevant games entirely to show that Rutgers (a 50.5 point underdog) has a miniscule 0.2% chance to win their matchup with the Buckeyes?  Yes, yes I did.  Regardless of that game, this is a supremely deep week that will test all but a couple contenders.  Upstarts Baylor and Minnesota made noise this week but now they each have a chance to clinch a conference title game appearance (the Gophers would need a Wisconsin loss for this to happen now).