As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 83.56% | -5.9% |
| 2 | Michigan | 4 | 49.43% | 3.3% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 6 | 44.10% | -8.1% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 3 | 43.20% | 7.7% |
| 5 | Alabama | 2 | 43.07% | 9.6% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 14 | 27.34% | 4.4% |
| 7 | Michigan State | 19 | 17.97% | 0.3% |
| 8 | Pitt | 7 | 17.74% | 4.1% |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 13 | 17.26% | 6.5% |
| 10 | Oregon | 21 | 11.73% | 6.5% |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 33 | 9.90% | 4.1% |
| 12 | Kentucky | 31 | 8.27% | -0.9% |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | 26 | 8.20% | -3.0% |
| 14 | Baylor | 23 | 4.70% | 0.3% |
| 15 | Iowa | 18 | 4.68% | -2.5% |
| 16 | Cincinnati | 10 | 2.55% | -0.8% |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 11 | 1.73% | 0.7% |
| 18 | Iowa State | 9 | 1.17% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Penn State | 12 | 1.00% | -16.9% |
| 20 | Virginia | 28 | 0.67% | 0.5% |
| 21 | North Carolina State | 20 | 0.42% | -4.0% |
| 22 | Arizona State | 27 | 0.41% | -0.4% |
| 23 | UTSA | 58 | 0.34% | 0.1% |
| 24 | San Diego State | 59 | 0.24% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Auburn | 16 | 0.13% | -0.1% |
| 26 | Oregon State | 49 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 27 | SMU | 39 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Minnesota | 35 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
A quiet week leaves everyone other than Penn State (lol) roughly where they were. The second-biggest fall was by a team that won (Oklahoma) and the third-biggest was by a team that didn't play (Georgia). So Week 8 was mostly a détente before the real stuff starts to happen. As for Cincy, I think I have a plan. If the committee shows them proper respect when the first rankings come out (say, top six), I will treat them as a one-loss team instead of as a two-loss team, like I do for the Group of Five. This feels like a proper acknowledgment that they have followed the long-hypothetical path for a non-power team to make the Playoff (ie. be good one year, get ranked high, and then be even better).
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Wake Forest | 35.7% | North Carolina State | 33.0% | |
| ACCC | Pitt | 85.9% | Virginia | 10.9% | |
| AMER | Cincinnati | 89.8% | Houston | 70.7% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 65.2% | Michigan | 26.9% | |
| B10W | Iowa | 48.0% | Minnesota | 27.1% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 82.8% | Iowa State | 44.4% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 32.1% | Florida Atlantic | 32.0% | |
| CUSAW | UTSA | 82.7% | UAB | 14.1% | |
| MACE | Miami (OH) | 47.0% | Kent State | 42.3% | |
| MACW | Northern Illinois | 46.2% | Toledo | 26.3% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 51.2% | Fresno State | 33.9% | |
| MWCM | Utah State | 48.0% | Air Force | 21.3% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 66.7% | Oregon State | 22.0% | |
| P12S | Utah | 55.1% | Arizona State | 36.2% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 99.1% | Kentucky | 0.9% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 81.8% | Ole Miss | 6.9% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 65.0% | Coastal Carolina | 32.5% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana | 99.7% | ULM | 0.2% |
I want to highlight two surprisingly good conference races. First, there is the ACC Atlantic. It may seem like Wake-NC State will decide it all, but unfortunately Clemson still exists. The Tigers still have a date with the Demon Deacons, which means their 27% chance to win the division that hinges on winning that game. Should be a fun race for the first time in forever.
Then there's the even crazier Big Ten West. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all have yet to play each other, and all three have a good chance to win the division (the Badgers sit at 23% with a computer rating of 17th in the nation). Iowa should still be your favorite, but also realize that having Iowa as your favorite inherently invites chaos to the party.
This week's single sim is pretty straightforward. Georgia, Cincy, Oklahoma, and a 12-1 Michigan that lost to a 9-4 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game (see what I told you) are the clear favorites for the Playoff. The only two-loss teams with an argument are 10-2 Bama and 11-2 ACC champ Pitt, but neither of them can hold a candle to Michigan's romp through the regular season in perhaps the toughest division in the sport?
Week 9 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Michigan State | Michigan | 37.9% | 0.100 |
| Georgia | Florida | 77.2% | 0.063 |
| Auburn | Ole Miss | 54.1% | 0.047 |
| Notre Dame | North Carolina | 66.2% | 0.046 |
| Ohio State | Penn State | 84.3% | 0.042 |
| Mississippi State | Kentucky | 54.3% | 0.022 |
| Pitt | Miami (FL) | 75.9% | 0.021 |
| Oklahoma | Texas Tech | 86.3% | 0.020 |
| Wisconsin | Iowa | 57.4% | 0.013 |
| Baylor | Texas | 50.3% | 0.012 |
Looks like a pretty darn good weekend and this grid doesn't even include down-ticket fun like Houston-SMU, BYU-Virginia, UCLA-Utah, and the least consequential Clemson-FSU game in recent memory. You may be struck by the relatively high odds of Florida beating the #1 team in the nation, but do remember a) they almost beat Bama like a month ago and b) the computers still have them 5th (!), so don't bury them yet. Also previously unbeaten darlings Iowa and Kentucky are road dogs to Wisconsin and Mississippi State, so don't be surprised if there is more "carnage" for teams that weren't going to make the Playoff anyway.
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