College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 9

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	91.29%	7.7%
2	Ohio State	3	49.59%	6.4%
3	Oklahoma	5	49.46%	5.4%
4	Notre Dame	13	43.28%	15.9%
5	Alabama	2	42.16%	-0.9%
6	Michigan State	18	37.22%	19.3%
7	Michigan	4	23.96%	-25.5%
8	Wake Forest	25	15.73%	5.8%
9	Oregon	22	13.58%	1.9%
10	Baylor	21	9.99%	5.3%
11	Oklahoma State	20	9.86%	1.7%
12	Ole Miss	17	4.47%	-12.8%
13	Cincinnati	7	2.58%	0.0%
14	Texas A&M	9	1.90%	0.2%
15	Pitt	10	1.51%	-16.2%
16	Kentucky	36	1.22%	-7.0%
17	Iowa	19	0.83%	-3.9%
18	North Carolina State	23	0.70%	0.3%
19	Auburn	14	0.33%	0.2%
20	UTSA	56	0.26%	-0.1%
21	Minnesota	28	0.11%	0.1%

Let's get this out of the way: Cincy is probably screwed.  Their ranking below both Michigan State and Oregon, combined with the non-ranking for conference-mates SMU and Houston probably means that the committee is not going to put them in.  So I am keeping them as a two-loss team for now, which is what explains their low ranking above.  I will change this if the situation dictates it.

Other than that, the reason for the differences between my probabilities and the initial committee rankings is mostly due to wildly disparate forecasts for the various teams.  Notre Dame has a 39% chance to finish 11-1, so they move up.  Oklahoma has a ~40% chance of being a zero or one-loss conference champ, so they remain high.  Ohio State has a 37% chance of being a 12-1 Big Ten champ, so they move up.  Michigan State has a 72% chance of losing two or more games, so they remain behind several one-loss teams.  Wake has an 84% (!) chance of losing two or more games, so they're still on the outside looking in.  Oregon has only an 11% chance of winning out....well, you get the point now.  The summarization is to wait a week or two before getting angry at me.  Everything will shake out in due time.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Wake Forest	41.7%		North Carolina State	36.7%
ACCC	Pitt	66.3%		Miami (FL)	16.0%
AMER	Houston	98.1%		Cincinnati	93.3%
B10E	Ohio State	74.8%		Michigan State	13.2%
B10W	Minnesota	40.3%		Wisconsin	33.6%
B12	Oklahoma	85.9%		Oklahoma State	52.7%
CUSAE	Marshall	40.9%		Western Kentucky	31.6%
CUSAW	UTSA	84.9%		UAB	12.6%
MACE	Miami (OH)	53.4%		Kent State	44.8%
MACW	Northern Illinois	49.5%		Toledo	25.0%
MWCW	Fresno State	64.8%		San Diego State	19.0%
MWCM	Utah State	64.5%		Boise State	20.4%
P12N	Oregon	65.8%		Washington State	13.1%
P12S	Utah	92.5%		Arizona State	6.1%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	Alabama	80.3%		Auburn	12.9%
SUNE	Appalachian State	67.4%		Coastal Carolina	31.4%
SUNW	Louisiana	99.9%		ULM	0.1%

Congrats to Georgia on being the only team to conquer their division in October (FYI...Louisiana did so last night, after I compiled this table).  Oregon's remaining slate (Utah and the three PNW schools) makes them a shakier favorite than you might think.  Pitt is still your ACC favorite because the rest of the ACC is so bad that they could easily afford a mulligan.  And we're basically guaranteed a Houston-Cincy title match in the American...hooray.

No idea who would qualify for the last two spots here.  12-1 Cincy?  12-1 Wake?  11-2 Big Ten champ Ohio State? One of the other 10-2 teams?  My guess would be OSU and Wake, but maybe the committee throws up its hands and takes the Bearcats after all.  Regardless, you have to admit this would be sorta fun.

Week 10 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Purdue	Michigan State	39.2%	0.049
Nebraska	Ohio State	16.7%	0.041
North Carolina	Wake Forest	54.8%	0.029
Washington	Oregon	36.5%	0.025
West Virginia	Oklahoma State	41.2%	0.020
TCU	Baylor	35.3%	0.018
Alabama	LSU	93.2%	0.014
Michigan	Indiana	90.4%	0.012
Ole Miss	Liberty	75.5%	0.011
Texas A&M	Auburn	60.7%	0.009

There's nothing close to a headliner here which is why Gameday is going to Cincinnati.  But this weekend has three things going for it.  One is six highly-ranked teams going on the road against legitimate threats (my numbers suggests there will be 2.3 losses amongst this group).  Two is a solid A&M-Auburn game in the middle of the day that will leave the victor as a minor but real threat to Bama's superiority in the West.  And three is a surprisingly important UTSA-UTEP nightcap in one of the prettiest stadiums in the land.  Could be worse.