As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 89.45% | 9.3% |
| 2 | Michigan | 5 | 46.98% | 5.5% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 6 | 46.38% | 3.2% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 3 | 33.85% | 10.4% |
| 5 | Iowa | 12 | 32.50% | 8.5% |
| 6 | Alabama | 2 | 29.74% | -42.8% |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 14 | 23.39% | 11.3% |
| 8 | Penn State | 8 | 17.38% | -14.2% |
| 9 | Michigan State | 15 | 16.24% | 7.6% |
| 10 | Kentucky | 34 | 8.90% | 4.4% |
| 11 | Pitt | 11 | 8.38% | -0.2% |
| 12 | Arizona State | 20 | 6.27% | 1.7% |
| 13 | Ole Miss | 16 | 5.83% | -2.9% |
| 14 | Oregon | 22 | 5.61% | -0.3% |
| 15 | Wake Forest | 38 | 5.39% | 2.0% |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 33 | 4.42% | 1.6% |
| 17 | Clemson | 7 | 3.97% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 10 | 2.94% | 0.4% |
| 19 | Florida | 4 | 2.63% | 0.1% |
| 20 | Baylor | 26 | 2.46% | 1.9% |
| 21 | North Carolina State | 27 | 2.07% | 0.3% |
| 22 | Boston College | 40 | 0.94% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Iowa State | 9 | 0.94% | 0.3% |
| 24 | Texas | 13 | 0.83% | -4.1% |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 17 | 0.68% | 0.6% |
| 26 | Utah | 29 | 0.52% | 0.4% |
| 27 | Arkansas | 24 | 0.23% | -2.4% |
| 28 | Coastal Carolina | 25 | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| 29 | UTSA | 73 | 0.14% | 0.1% |
| 30 | UCLA | 37 | 0.14% | 0.0% |
| 31 | SMU | 39 | 0.12% | 0.0% |
| 32 | San Diego State | 58 | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Virginia | 45 | 0.09% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Auburn | 21 | 0.06% | -0.6% |
| 35 | Tennessee | 19 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Maryland | 60 | 0.03% | -0.1% |
| 37 | TCU | 30 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Oregon State | 55 | 0.02% | -0.8% |
| 39 | Kansas State | 49 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Mississippi State | 31 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Virginia Tech | 47 | 0.01% | -0.4% |
| 42 | Texas Tech | 62 | 0.01% | -0.3% |
| 43 | Minnesota | 48 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Purdue | 53 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
A big weekend leads to some big swings. Georgia passes a test and goes up. Bama doesn't pass a test and goes down (and makes it slightly more likely that Georgia won't even have to play them). Iowa's "big" win pushes them into the top five. And Notre Dame continues to hang around on the strength of a good (but not too good) schedule. Cincinnati is probably underrated at this point as they are clearly stronger than your average Group of Five contender, but let's at least wait a few weeks to start sweating the Bearcats.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 42.9% | North Carolina State | 31.6% | |
| ACCC | Pitt | 71.8% | Virginia Tech | 11.9% | |
| AMER | Cincinnati | 87.9% | Houston | 70.7% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 58.2% | Michigan | 26.8% | |
| B10W | Iowa | 85.6% | Wisconsin | 8.7% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 84.3% | Texas | 35.9% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 31.8% | Florida Atlantic | 28.2% | |
| CUSAW | UTSA | 44.6% | UAB | 39.5% | |
| MACE | Kent State | 61.9% | Miami (OH) | 28.9% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 45.0% | Northern Illinois | 23.9% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 41.8% | Nevada | 28.9% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 40.3% | Air Force | 20.4% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 51.9% | Washington | 21.2% | |
| P12S | Arizona State | 58.5% | Utah | 36.2% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 92.0% | Kentucky | 6.0% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 74.9% | Ole Miss | 6.9% | |
| SUNE | Coastal Carolina | 53.9% | Appalachian State | 45.2% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana | 96.7% | Texas State | 2.6% |
Louisiana was the most likely team to win their division when I ran this on Sunday and then they went out and aced their biggest test, so that number is probably like 99% now. The major conferences are starting to pare down the contenders, so it's pretty fun that the CUSA, MAC, and Mountain West are all wide open. Also, here is your weekly reminder that Pitt is going to win the ACC.
Bama's loss allows the weekly sim to start getting a little weirder. Sure, the Playoff here would almost certainly be Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon, but maybe Pitt or Cincy would have an argument? The more fun thing here is seeing Oklahoma go 10-2 and miss the Big 12 title game entirely. Or Iowa's total faceplant to a 10-3 finish. Weird things can (and will) still happen!
Week 7 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Georgia | Kentucky | 93.4% | 0.048 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 79.2% | 0.032 |
| Mississippi State | Alabama | 17.3% | 0.026 |
| Utah | Arizona State | 49.7% | 0.018 |
| Iowa | Purdue | 83.3% | 0.018 |
| Indiana | Michigan State | 32.7% | 0.018 |
| Tennessee | Ole Miss | 55.7% | 0.016 |
| Texas | Oklahoma State | 72.1% | 0.013 |
| Virginia Tech | Pitt | 28.2% | 0.012 |
| Boston College | North Carolina State | 47.4% | 0.007 |
This weekend is thinner than Week 5 and lacks the top-line strength of Week 6. I can still get a little excited, though. Iowa has a 1 in 6 chance of losing at home to Purdue! Cincy plays UCF! Arizona State and Utah battle for a likely division title! OK none of that is that exciting, but it's good enough for a freak like me.
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