As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 80.17% | 3.6% |
| 2 | Alabama | 2 | 72.52% | 5.5% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 4 | 43.14% | -0.3% |
| 4 | Michigan | 6 | 41.48% | 6.5% |
| 5 | Penn State | 8 | 31.58% | 9.2% |
| 6 | Iowa | 11 | 23.98% | 15.0% |
| 7 | Ohio State | 3 | 23.50% | 5.7% |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 16 | 12.08% | -18.2% |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 14 | 8.69% | -6.6% |
| 10 | Pitt | 10 | 8.60% | 6.5% |
| 11 | Michigan State | 21 | 8.59% | 2.3% |
| 12 | Oregon | 18 | 5.87% | -20.7% |
| 13 | Texas | 12 | 4.90% | 2.0% |
| 14 | Arizona State | 20 | 4.52% | 4.0% |
| 15 | Kentucky | 43 | 4.46% | 3.2% |
| 16 | Clemson | 7 | 3.95% | -0.8% |
| 17 | Wake Forest | 42 | 3.35% | 0.1% |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 31 | 2.87% | 1.3% |
| 19 | Arkansas | 23 | 2.64% | -2.6% |
| 20 | Cincinnati | 13 | 2.52% | 1.9% |
| 21 | Florida | 5 | 2.48% | -8.1% |
| 22 | North Carolina State | 26 | 1.79% | -1.2% |
| 23 | Boston College | 46 | 0.98% | -0.8% |
| 24 | Oregon State | 49 | 0.77% | 0.4% |
| 25 | Iowa State | 9 | 0.68% | 0.5% |
| 26 | Auburn | 17 | 0.63% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Baylor | 36 | 0.53% | -2.6% |
| 28 | North Carolina | 15 | 0.50% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Virginia Tech | 39 | 0.38% | 0.1% |
| 30 | Texas Tech | 50 | 0.26% | 0.2% |
| 31 | BYU | 45 | 0.25% | 0.2% |
| 32 | Coastal Carolina | 27 | 0.21% | -0.1% |
| 33 | Maryland | 48 | 0.18% | -1.9% |
| 34 | UCLA | 35 | 0.15% | -2.9% |
| 35 | Utah | 33 | 0.14% | 0.1% |
| 36 | USC | 29 | 0.12% | 0.1% |
| 37 | SMU | 38 | 0.10% | -0.1% |
| 38 | Texas A&M | 22 | 0.10% | -1.2% |
| 39 | UTSA | 76 | 0.08% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Virginia | 47 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 41 | San Diego State | 65 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Rutgers | 57 | 0.04% | -0.3% |
| 43 | Kansas State | 51 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Tennessee | 24 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Wyoming | 79 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Mississippi State | 30 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Louisville | 61 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 48 | TCU | 40 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Stanford | 63 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 50 | South Carolina | 66 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Minnesota | 52 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 52 | LSU | 34 | 0.00% | -0.2% |
| 53 | Purdue | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Syracuse | 70 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Duke | 88 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
An eventful weekend shook up the Playoff odds less than you might think. Bama and Georgia are still streets ahead of the competition. Oklahoma is still hanging in the 40-50% range they've been all season. And then there's the glut of Big Ten teams who are about to start beating up on each other. In other news, Cincinnati's big win gets them all the way up to a 1 in 40 chance of a Playoff, but keep in mind they only have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning out. If they do manage to go 13-0 (and if chaos ensues elsewhere), that number will go up significantly. Also, Pitt keeps Pitt-ing to the point that they might actually be the best team in the ACC. And finally out west, this tweet is starting to get slightly more real than I ever intended.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 48.5% | North Carolina State | 30.3% | |
| ACCC | Pitt | 62.0% | Virginia Tech | 18.8% | |
| AMER | Cincinnati | 86.9% | Houston | 58.0% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 50.8% | Michigan | 27.2% | |
| B10W | Iowa | 81.5% | Wisconsin | 7.6% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 79.8% | Texas | 56.4% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 39.0% | Western Kentucky | 27.8% | |
| CUSAW | UTSA | 42.2% | UAB | 32.1% | |
| MACE | Miami (OH) | 33.3% | Buffalo | 32.3% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 54.2% | Western Michigan | 40.1% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 33.6% | Nevada | 28.8% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 41.9% | Wyoming | 21.1% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 40.7% | Oregon State | 33.8% | |
| P12S | Arizona State | 57.7% | Utah | 25.0% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 91.3% | Kentucky | 4.7% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 90.6% | Auburn | 4.1% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 49.9% | Coastal Carolina | 49.0% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana | 97.3% | Texas State | 1.0% |
The conference title grid shows some races turning into locks, while others becoming completely up for grabs. The dead heat in the Sun Belt rules, but for my money the two Mountain West races are the most likely to spark season-long chaos. Oh and Iowa, Pitt, and Arizona State are all conference favorites at this point because of course they are.
The single sim is very goofy this week. Bama and Georgia face off in Atlanta at 12-0 apiece, which makes the game redundant, as they would likely be the top two seeds regardless of the result. A 12-0 BYU would have a case for inclusion, but probably loses out to 11-2 Michigan State and Oklahoma. 12-1 Cincy probably doesn't factor into the conversation. Fun fact: Pitt beats BC in the ACC title game, because nothing matters anymore.
Week 6 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Iowa | Penn State | 53.0% | 0.093 |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 38.7% | 0.071 |
| Auburn | Georgia | 18.1% | 0.051 |
| Nebraska | Michigan | 36.3% | 0.050 |
| Texas A&M | Alabama | 16.9% | 0.042 |
| Virginia Tech | Notre Dame | 42.0% | 0.026 |
| Ole Miss | Arkansas | 66.6% | 0.023 |
| Ohio State | Maryland | 90.1% | 0.012 |
| Rutgers | Michigan State | 37.7% | 0.011 |
| Kentucky | LSU | 52.8% | 0.007 |
This week, like last week, is one of the best of the year. Whereas Week 5 got its strength from its depth, Week 6 has a well-balanced layout of like seven fun games, with another slate of almost entirely home dogs. This should give us enough meaningful results to start to really narrow down the possibilities of what can happen...here's hoping for chaos.
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