College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 3

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	2	64.05%	1.9%
2	Alabama	1	63.07%	0.8%
3	Oklahoma	3	58.71%	-8.1%
4	Oregon	10	31.53%	0.0%
5	Michigan	6	30.00%	16.8%
6	Penn State	8	27.53%	3.8%
7	Clemson	5	20.14%	-2.2%
8	Ohio State	4	16.82%	3.5%
9	Iowa	12	14.89%	0.0%
10	Texas A&M	9	14.06%	-3.1%
11	Ole Miss	13	12.52%	4.3%
12	Florida	7	8.63%	-5.6%
13	Notre Dame	20	7.93%	1.8%
14	North Carolina	11	6.91%	2.6%
15	Wisconsin	15	3.59%	-1.1%
16	Michigan State	26	3.10%	2.5%
17	USC	19	1.88%	1.4%
18	Virginia Tech	21	1.65%	-4.3%
19	Iowa State	16	1.43%	0.9%
20	Texas	17	1.16%	0.9%
21	Arkansas	25	0.92%	0.1%
22	Baylor	31	0.91%	0.7%
23	Auburn	14	0.91%	-3.6%
24	UCLA	22	0.79%	-6.5%
25	TCU	28	0.75%	-0.4%
26	North Carolina State	27	0.71%	0.4%
27	Boston College	47	0.67%	0.3%
28	Kansas State	42	0.56%	0.4%
29	Cincinnati	18	0.52%	0.3%
30	Maryland	46	0.41%	-0.2%
31	Virginia	37	0.39%	-1.6%
32	Oklahoma State	44	0.33%	0.2%
33	Texas Tech	43	0.32%	0.2%
34	Pitt	29	0.29%	-2.8%
35	Wake Forest	57	0.29%	0.2%
36	Kentucky	58	0.23%	-0.8%
37	Minnesota	33	0.21%	0.2%
38	LSU	24	0.14%	0.1%
39	Coastal Carolina	45	0.13%	0.0%
40	Rutgers	54	0.12%	0.0%
41	Arizona State	36	0.11%	-1.9%
42	Mississippi State	34	0.10%	-0.3%
43	Washington	23	0.10%	0.1%
44	Louisville	63	0.07%	0.1%
45	BYU	49	0.06%	0.0%
46	Liberty	59	0.05%	0.0%
47	Utah	30	0.05%	-0.7%
48	Stanford	55	0.05%	0.0%
49	UTSA	69	0.03%	0.0%
50	San Diego State	68	0.03%	0.0%
51	West Virginia	39	0.03%	0.0%
52	Missouri	60	0.02%	0.0%
53	Tennessee	48	0.02%	0.0%
54	Miami (FL)	35	0.02%	-1.1%
55	Wyoming	74	0.02%	0.0%
56	Memphis	61	0.02%	0.0%
57	Purdue	50	0.01%	-0.1%
58	Oregon State	64	0.01%	0.0%
59	Army	78	0.01%	0.0%
60	SMU	53	0.01%	0.0%
61	South Carolina	72	0.00%	0.0%
62	Utah State	93	0.00%	0.0%
63	South Alabama	110	0.00%	0.0%
64	Duke	86	0.00%	0.0%
65	Syracuse	85	0.00%	0.0%
66	Indiana	52	0.00%	-0.1%
67	Nebraska	32	0.00%	-0.1%
68	Colorado	84	0.00%	0.0%
69	Northwestern	81	0.00%	0.0%
70	Washington State	89	0.00%	0.0%
71	Kansas	118	0.00%	0.0%
72	Georgia Tech	66	0.00%	0.0%
73	Vanderbilt	115	0.00%	0.0%
74	California	73	0.00%	0.0%

Georgia is the most likely Playoff team, for I believe the first time in history.  I'm just happy it's someone outside of the Bama/Clemson/OSU/Oklahoma quad for once.  In other news, Michigan now has the best odds of any Big Ten team, not because of schedule advantages but simply because they appear to be a very, very good football team.  And the group of five's best hope, Cincinnati, finally improves to all of a 1 in 200 chance of making the field with their comeback win over the Hoosiers.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	82.5%		North Carolina State	10.4%
ACCC	Virginia Tech	45.1%		North Carolina	26.9%
AMER	Cincinnati	80.1%		UCF	36.9%
B10E	Ohio State	47.6%		Michigan	26.9%
B10W	Iowa	57.9%		Wisconsin	28.4%
B12	Oklahoma	87.6%		Iowa State	36.0%
CUSAE	Marshall	42.3%		Florida Atlantic	33.4%
CUSAW	UTSA	53.8%		UAB	28.0%
MACE	Buffalo	52.5%		Kent State	29.6%
MACW	Toledo	45.1%		Western Michigan	31.4%
MWCW	Fresno State	51.6%		San Diego State	26.5%
MWCM	Boise State	55.2%		Wyoming	21.1%
P12N	Oregon	63.9%		Washington	28.4%
P12S	USC	39.7%		UCLA	24.9%
SECE	Georgia	81.1%		Florida	16.6%
SECW	Alabama	69.8%		Texas A&M	14.5%
SUNE	Coastal Carolina	45.2%		Appalachian State	41.0%
SUNW	Louisiana	87.3%		Arkansas State	6.5%

Ohio State slipped below Michigan up top, but they are still the favorite in the Big Ten East, although it's now just a plurality of a chance instead of their usual majority.  Keep an eye on that.

Here's a new feature that might be fun (?): A single simulation.  Before I run the main simulation each week, I run a single sim to make sure everything is working properly.  In doing this, I have started to find myself giddy with anticipation at seeing what fresh hell my computer spits out at me.  I've had fun with this previously on this blog, but felt that it might be fun to make this a weekly exercise.

Anyway, the first edition of this feature is absolute fire.  Yeah 13-0 Bama is boring, but nothing else is.  12-1 Oregon as the solid #2!  13-0 Cincy would proooobably be the #3!!  And then an absolutely ridiculous decision for the fourth spot between perennial conference champs Iowa and NC State, as well as an 11-2 SEC runner-up Georgia who would have a much stronger SOS that either of those teams.  Also don't sleep on the Big 12 chaos that would have to happen to have a 2-loss Oklahoma miss the title game entirely.

Week 4 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
North Carolina State	Clemson	28.2%	0.031
Wisconsin	Notre Dame	59.4%	0.023
Oklahoma	West Virginia	89.8%	0.020
Texas A&M	Arkansas	67.6%	0.017
Michigan	Rutgers	88.5%	0.012
Georgia Tech	North Carolina	22.0%	0.008
Florida	Tennessee	85.1%	0.007
Baylor	Iowa State	39.1%	0.005
Michigan State	Nebraska	62.9%	0.004
Oregon	Arizona	97.3%	0.003

On one hand, this is a very thin week.  On the other hand, it really gives you a chance to focus on games that don't involve the perennial Playoff teams.  A&M-Arkansas will be really fun.  Wisconsin-ND is the rare game that should benefit from the neutral site location (Soldier Field will be rocking).  TCU-SMU is important-ish.  And Nebraska has the chance to become one of the best 2-3 teams in recent memory with a close loss to the Spartans.