College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 1

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Alabama	1	76.24%	11.5%
2	Ohio State	2	53.88%	3.4%
3	Georgia	3	44.41%	18.1%
4	Oklahoma	5	44.33%	-14.0%
5	Clemson	4	20.65%	-38.7%
6	Penn State	7	18.74%	10.2%
7	USC	13	17.37%	9.1%
8	Texas A&M	6	17.07%	-0.3%
9	Texas	8	11.79%	8.1%
10	UCLA	16	11.11%	10.7%
11	Notre Dame	17	9.90%	-3.7%
12	Utah	20	9.59%	4.9%
13	Michigan	12	9.03%	7.8%
14	Iowa	11	8.74%	6.5%
15	Florida	9	7.34%	-2.2%
16	Ole Miss	15	6.38%	4.4%
17	Oregon	21	5.22%	-4.1%
18	North Carolina State	22	4.31%	3.8%
19	Auburn	10	4.10%	2.9%
20	Virginia Tech	25	3.66%	2.6%
21	Iowa State	19	2.69%	-6.5%
22	Wisconsin	18	1.73%	-10.3%
23	Arizona State	31	1.55%	-1.4%
24	Pitt	27	1.21%	0.9%
25	Boston College	32	1.06%	0.8%
26	Miami (FL)	23	1.02%	-7.2%
27	Michigan State	29	0.97%	0.9%
28	TCU	26	0.96%	0.6%
29	North Carolina	24	0.92%	-7.4%
30	Texas Tech	33	0.65%	0.6%
31	Virginia	34	0.59%	0.5%
32	Kentucky	30	0.47%	0.3%
33	Kansas State	42	0.33%	0.3%
34	Cincinnati	14	0.31%	0.2%
35	Missouri	50	0.21%	0.1%
36	Oklahoma State	44	0.19%	-1.2%
37	Wake Forest	51	0.14%	0.0%
38	Maryland	48	0.14%	0.1%
39	Minnesota	35	0.13%	-0.2%
40	LSU	28	0.08%	-2.9%
41	Tennessee	46	0.08%	0.0%
42	Baylor	54	0.08%	0.0%
43	Appalachian State	37	0.07%	0.0%
44	Washington	36	0.07%	-6.8%
45	Arkansas	40	0.05%	0.0%
46	Rutgers	57	0.05%	0.0%
47	Coastal Carolina	39	0.05%	0.0%
48	Marshall	64	0.04%	0.0%
49	Florida State	41	0.04%	0.0%
50	Mississippi State	53	0.04%	-0.2%
51	Purdue	58	0.04%	0.0%
52	UCF	38	0.02%	0.0%
53	Buffalo	60	0.02%	0.0%
54	Troy	55	0.02%	0.0%
55	Indiana	47	0.01%	-1.6%
56	Toledo	66	0.01%	0.0%
57	South Carolina	63	0.01%	0.0%
58	Colorado	73	0.01%	0.0%
59	Memphis	49	0.01%	0.0%
60	UTSA	75	0.01%	0.0%
61	Nevada	69	0.01%	0.0%
62	SMU	43	0.01%	0.0%
63	Army	68	0.01%	0.0%
64	UAB	67	0.01%	0.0%
65	BYU	62	0.01%	0.0%
66	Syracuse	84	0.00%	0.0%
67	Northwestern	70	0.00%	-0.2%
68	Wyoming	87	0.00%	0.0%
69	Liberty	72	0.00%	0.0%
70	Washington State	74	0.00%	0.0%
71	Utah State	101	0.00%	0.0%
72	Middle Tennessee	91	0.00%	0.0%
73	Kansas	116	0.00%	0.0%
74	Louisville	71	0.00%	-0.2%
75	Nebraska	52	0.00%	-0.1%
76	West Virginia	56	0.00%	0.0%
77	California	78	0.00%	0.0%
78	Stanford	76	0.00%	0.0%
79	Georgia Tech	77	0.00%	0.0%
80	Oregon State	81	0.00%	0.0%
81	Illinois	79	0.00%	0.0%
82	Duke	97	0.00%	0.0%
83	Arizona	93	0.00%	0.0%
84	Vanderbilt	121	0.00%	0.0%
85	San Diego State	90	0.00%	0.0%
86	Ball State	94	0.00%	0.0%
87	Air Force	103	0.00%	0.0%
88	Eastern Michigan	95	0.00%	0.0%
89	North Texas	99	0.00%	0.0%
90	Western Kentucky	89	0.00%	0.0%
91	Georgia Southern	107	0.00%	0.0%
92	Arkansas State	88	0.00%	0.0%
93	South Alabama	106	0.00%	0.0%
94	New Mexico	122	0.00%	0.0%
95	FIU	104	0.00%	0.0%
96	UTEP	118	0.00%	0.0%
97	Charlotte	112	0.00%	0.0%
98	Northern Illinois	96	0.00%	0.0%

Week 1 represents what will likely be the biggest shake-up of the season.  Part of this was because of the slate of big games (sorry Clemson), and part of this is because the biggest swing in the computer ratings typically comes right after the first game (hello Michigan, Iowa, Utah, and UCLA).  Barring a 2007-like glut of upsets, you should expect things to stabilize from here on out.

The conference races also got weirder.  Buffalo (?) is now the team most likely to win its division.  Iowa takes charge of the Big Ten West.  Oregon looks like it will win the Pac 12 North by default.  And Virginia Tech is currently sitting atop the ever-mercurial Coastal.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	80.8%		North Carolina State	11.2%
ACCC	Virginia Tech	36.4%		Miami (FL)	26.3%
AMER	Cincinnati	83.5%		UCF	34.0%
B10E	Ohio State	69.1%		Penn State	17.0%
B10W	Iowa	66.4%		Wisconsin	22.2%
B12	Oklahoma	83.2%		Texas	54.9%
CUSAE	Marshall	51.0%		Florida Atlantic	17.4%
CUSAW	UAB	44.4%		UTSA	32.7%
MACE	Buffalo	83.8%		Kent State	9.6%
MACW	Toledo	57.9%		Central Michigan	17.9%
MWCW	Fresno State	42.7%		Nevada	27.5%
MWCM	Boise State	61.3%		Wyoming	16.0%
P12N	Oregon	64.3%		Washington	29.9%
P12S	USC	49.2%		Utah	22.9%
SECE	Georgia	74.6%		Florida	17.7%
SECW	Alabama	77.8%		Texas A&M	13.1%
SUNE	Coastal Carolina	40.9%		Appalachian State	36.1%
SUNW	Louisiana	73.0%		Arkansas State	20.6%

Week 2 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Ohio State	Oregon	83.5%	0.044
Iowa State	Iowa	49.2%	0.019
Arkansas	Texas	28.6%	0.011
BYU	Utah	31.4%	0.010
Georgia	UAB	93.5%	0.010
Michigan	Washington	77.2%	0.007
Notre Dame	Toledo	81.6%	0.006
USC	Stanford	89.6%	0.006
Texas A&M	Colorado	90.2%	0.006
Mississippi State	North Carolina State	33.9%	0.005

Week 2 is still the "weakest" Saturday of the year per my Playoff metric, but this all looks fine to me.  El Assico will be a fun coinflip.  Ohio State gets to see if it can make another mediocre offense look occasionally great.  And NC State can (and probably will) put a hurting on Mike Leach.