Who Wants Some Chaos?

The College Football Playoff has been part of our lives for three years now.  While there have been small imperfections (the unnecessary weekly rankings, the semi-finals taking place on New Year's Eve), it's hard to imagine our sport without it.  In that regard - the only one that ultimately matters in the long run - the Playoff is a massive, massive success.  But this level of acceptance and success has only been possible because of a good deal of luck.

That good luck has manifested itself in the form of relatively easy decisions for the selection committee.  Had the committee needed to make more controversial decisions, the resulting amount of bile and angst could have undermined the success of the Playoff, and could very well have led to the same kind of tinkering that helped make the BCS untenable.  College football history is littered with chaotic seasons without easy answers, whereas the last three years have been the opposite.  Sure, there was some debate in 2014 and 2016, but if you look at just number of losses and strength of schedule (like my model does), the choices were pretty clear.  I think the college football world is taking this for granted and is unprepared for the very realistic prospect of chaos.

So now that I've laid out my chaos theory, what's the best way to back it up?  I could simply say that the last three championship weeks have seen contenders have go a combined 12-0 against non-contenders, and leave you with the obvious conclusion that there will probably be an upset at some point.  I could go the other direction and use my weekly playoff simulation to come up with some sort of "Chaos Index," but I feel that might be too much of an abstraction to really drive the point home.  So let's split the difference by simulating the rest of the season ten times and seeing what happens.*

*And yes, we'll monitor just how smart/stupid the Big 12 title game is throughout

Simulation #1

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Clemson	LOST	1	0.566	92.3%
Wisconsin	WON	1	0.549	84.3%
Oregon	LOST	1	0.527	66.3%
Florida State		2	0.595	53.8%
Virginia Tech	WON	1	0.510	47.4%
Alabama		2	0.577	33.6%
Mississippi State		2	0.554	14.5%
Penn State	LOST	2	0.539	7.9%

This is a fantastic start.  Both undefeated teams lose in championship week, with Oregon losing to an 8-4 (?!) USC.  Clemson and Wisconsin seem like safe bets.  Beyond that I'm not sure how the debate would go.  Oregon's probably safe, but this version of the Pac 12 isn't strong enough to put them in automatically.  Virginia Tech would have avenged their only loss to Clemson, but their next best win was...at 8-4 Miami?  And Alabama and Florida State would have put together a couple really nice seasons against two of the strongest schedules in the county.  Yeah, the committee would probably take the easy way out and put the four one-loss teams in.  However, the whole point of this exercise is that we don't know that they would do that yet because they've never had to make a decision quite like this.

Chaos Level: Moderate

Did the Big 12 screw itself: A 10-2 Oklahoma wouldn't have had a realistic chance at the playoff (more on that later), but they did lose to 7-5 Texas in the title game for good measure.

Other random fun: Texas A&M went 3-9 and UTSA went 12-1.  So yeah, Frank Wilson is the new Aggie coach.

Simulation #2

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Miami (FL)	WON	0	0.533	100.0%
Oklahoma	WON	0	0.508	100.0%
Wisconsin	WON	1	0.569	88.7%
Alabama		2	0.592	36.6%
Oregon	WON	1	0.509	35.1%
Michigan		2	0.589	33.5%
Auburn	WON	2	0.541	5.2%
Washington		2	0.500	0.9%

This one seems a little more straightforward.  Miami, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin all seem like clear playoff teams.  However, the final playoff spot would be interesting as hell.  Oregon's a one-loss conference champ in a bad conference (basically the worse version of 2016 Washington).  Alabama and Michigan didn't win their divisions, but went 10-2 against formidable slates.  And then there's your SEC champ, a pretty good 11-2 Auburn.  Once again, the committee could do the easy thing and take Oregon.  Either way, the last three years haven't given us enough information to know for sure.

Chaos Level: Moderate

Did the Big 12 screw itself: No!  But congrats on making the undefeated Sooners play a completely pointless rematch with 9-3 Oklahoma State.

Other random fun: A&M goes 5-7 while Vandy goes 10-2 and wins the East.  Derek Mason is your new Aggie coach.

Simulation #3

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Clemson	WON	0	0.537	100.0%
Georgia	LOST	1	0.596	98.4%
Oklahoma	WON	1	0.521	64.6%
Washington	WON	1	0.513	55.7%
Michigan	LOST	2	0.573	34.7%
Ohio State		2	0.573	34.3%
Penn State		2	0.537	8.8%
Miami (FL)	LOST	2	0.517	3.6%

In one sense, this simulation gives us chaos.  Wisconsin knocks off 11-1 Michigan in the Big Ten title game.  Auburn avenges an earlier loss to Georgia in Atlanta.  But the end result is one of the more straightforward situations possible.  Neither Oklahoma nor Washington are the strongest one-loss teams of all time, but they've done enough to hold off Ohio State and Michigan.  This is basically a repeat of 2016, with slightly different teams.  Boring.

Chaos Level: Mild

Did the Big 12 screw itself: No again!  And this time, the extra win against Oklahoma state may have actually helped them avoid extra scrutiny against the stronger schedules of Michigan and Ohio State.  Great job!

Other random fun: 11-1 UTSA beats 10-2 Old Dominion in a weirdly compelling CUSA title game.  Missouri goes 2-10.  Army wins 9 games and Coastal Carolina wins 8!  Monroe wins the Sun Belt!!

Simulation #4

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Alabama	WON	0	0.604	100.0%
Clemson	WON	0	0.551	100.0%
Washington	LOST	1	0.530	74.1%
Michigan		2	0.574	36.0%
Ohio State	WON	2	0.568	30.4%
Notre Dame		2	0.560	23.1%
Wisconsin	LOST	2	0.549	15.1%
USC	WON	2	0.548	14.3%
Oregon		2	0.519	4.1%
Oklahoma	WON	2	0.512	3.0%

Going into championship week, everything looks pretty good.  Bama, Clemson, and Washington are all undefeated, and Wisconsin looks good as the only one-loss team.  Then the latter two lose and no fewer than five teams have a legitimate claim to the final spot (and even Oklahoma might get a sniff for beating the Buckeyes).  I think Ohio State makes it in this scenario, but it's so close that I have no idea what the committee would do.

Chaos Level: Moderate

Did the Big 12 screw itself: Nope, but it was already dead, so whatever.

Other random fun: Not much to report here other than Rice making the CUSA title game.

Simulation #5

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Clemson	WON	0	0.552	100.0%
Wisconsin	WON	0	0.531	100.0%
Washington	WON	1	0.549	85.7%
Oklahoma	WON	1	0.510	49.5%
Alabama		2	0.579	37.5%
Ohio State	LOST	2	0.551	13.9%
TCU		2	0.524	4.4%
Oregon		2	0.521	3.9%
Oklahoma State	LOST	2	0.513	2.7%
Penn State		2	0.511	2.4%

So it's time to talk about the Big 12.  As of press time, the Big 12 has nine losses to fellow FBS teams (plus Baylor's loss to Liberty).  If Tech loses their coin flip against Houston, the league will be sporting a 13-10 record against the rest of FBS with no more than three truly impressive wins.  This means that whoever comes out of the league relatively unscathed still won't have a very impressive resume.  In this particular scenario, it still appears that a 12-1 season will be enough to get the Sooners into the playoff.  With the Tide just sitting there like that, though, I'm not so sure.

Chaos Level: Mild

Did the Big 12 screw itself: Nope, but they did eliminate whatever slight chance they had of getting two teams into the playoff.

Other random fun: A&M goes 4-8 while Louisiana Tech goes 11-2 and wins the CUSA.  Skip Holtz is the new Aggie coach (Oh God, I'm so sorry for even joking about this). 

Simulation #6

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Alabama	WON	1	0.585	99.5%
Clemson	LOST	1	0.568	99.0%
Washington	WON	1	0.505	80.8%
Wisconsin	WON	2	0.566	69.2%
Notre Dame		2	0.524	20.8%
Oklahoma	WON	2	0.519	17.4%
Penn State		2	0.507	10.2%
Louisville		2	0.482	3.1%

It only took six simulations to get to our first truly mundane selection decision.  Yes, the committee has to pick between a bunch of two-loss teams for the first time ever.  Still, it seems pretty clear that Wisconsin's title game victory over formerly 10-2 Ohio State would be enough to push them over the hump.

Chaos Level: None (probably)

Did the Big 12 screw itself: Nope, but it turns out that beating an 8-4 Texas team in a rematch didn't actually help Oklahoma make the playoff.

Other random fun: Virginia Tech (10-3) avenges their loss to Clemson in the ACC title game.  Bowling Green goes 0-12, which is sad.  Randy Edsall gets UConn back to the promised land (they go 6-6).

Simulation #7

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Alabama		2	0.616	83.4%
Penn State	WON	1	0.537	82.6%
USC	WON	1	0.534	80.6%
Clemson	WON	2	0.603	73.3%
South Carolina	WON	2	0.567	33.1%
Florida State		2	0.558	24.6%
Wisconsin	LOST	2	0.541	12.4%
Oklahoma	LOST	2	0.509	3.0%
Oregon		2	0.508	2.9%
Oklahoma State	WON	2	0.505	2.5%
Washington	LOST	2	0.496	1.6%

Here's our first stupid 2007-like outcome.  Penn State and USC are your 2007 Ohio State: Perfectly fine teams with one loss and a conference title.  Alabama is your 2007 Georgia: A damn good 10-2 team that didn't win their division.  Clemson is your 2007 LSU and South Carolina (!) is your 2007 USC.  In spite of the chaos, I think Penn State, USC, and Clemson are all pretty safe bets.  The fun committee decision would come down to the Tide vs the Gamecocks, and just how much the committee values conference titles when the teams clearly come from disparately talented divisions.

Chaos Level: HIGH

Did the Big 12 screw itself: Sorta.  One-loss Oklahoma had a better argument than two-loss Oklahoma State, but the Sooners might not have made it anyway?

Other random fun: Virginia and Purdue go 7-5 while Texas goes 6-6.

Simulation #8

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Washington	WON	0	0.543	100.0%
Alabama	WON	1	0.617	99.1%
Penn State	WON	1	0.543	79.0%
Oklahoma	WON	1	0.506	41.2%
USC	LOST	1	0.504	39.5%
Clemson		2	0.562	18.6%
Miami (FL)		2	0.549	11.2%
Auburn		2	0.527	4.4%
Oklahoma State	LOST	2	0.524	3.9%
Wisconsin	LOST	2	0.520	3.1%

Here's another scenario with three pretty solid selections, and a tough choice for #4.  Oklahoma and USC have similar resumes in this universe, but I do wonder if recency bias will play a role here.  Or does the Sooners' win over 9-3 Ohio State play better than USC's wins over 6-6 Notre Dame and 5-7 Texas?  The argument in USC's favor is that it's unlikely for the committee to drop a top-two team out of the playoff for losing to the other top-two team.  But we've never seen a situation like this, so who knows?

Chaos Level: Moderate

Did the Big 12 screw itself: No, for the second time in eight tries, the title game actually helped.  But only a little.

Other random fun: I'm seriously not trying to do this, but we have a 12-1 UTSA and 5-7 A&M again - you know the drill.  Also, Eastern Michigan wins 9 games, so the apocalypse happened.

Simulation #9

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
USC	WON	0	0.550	100.0%
Alabama		1	0.590	80.4%
Auburn	WON	1	0.574	68.3%
Clemson	WON	1	0.572	65.8%
Ohio State	WON	1	0.565	58.8%
Oklahoma	LOST	1	0.526	21.7%
Florida State		2	0.572	4.7%
Oklahoma State	WON	2	0.504	0.3%

And here we have 2013, except with a few other one-loss teams.  USC ends up the only undefeated team, presumably by beating everyone by four points.  Auburn beats an undefeated Bama in the Iron Bowl and wins the SEC.  And Oklahoma fills the role of Sad Urban Meyer Pizza Time by losing to the Cowboys in a pointless rematch.  I would guess the top four conference champs would end up making the cut, but Bama would have as good an argument as any of them.  The incidence of five strong contenders in the same season increases the chatter around an eight-team playoff, and we get one in 2020.  I frown slightly and move on with my life.

Chaos Level: High

Did the Big 12 screw itself: Bigly.

Other random fun: Scott Frost wins 10 games and is off to Nebraska.  UAB goes 7-5!

Simulation #10

Team	Champ Game	Losses	SOS	POFF Prob
Michigan	WON	0	0.590	100.0%
Alabama		1	0.603	99.0%
Clemson		1	0.531	77.5%
Florida State	LOST	2	0.607	75.7%
Mississippi State	WON	2	0.554	20.7%
Notre Dame		2	0.551	17.9%
Washington	LOST	2	0.513	3.5%
TCU	LOST	2	0.510	3.1%
Oklahoma	WON	2	0.499	1.9%
Oklahoma State		2	0.476	0.6%

On one hand, our final simulation looks pretty straightforward, with the top four teams all receiving playoff odds of more than 75%.  On the other hand, three one-loss teams lose during championship week, throwing everything into chaos.  I think Florida State would be safe after losing a re-match to the 8-4 Hurricanes, but there's a lot of other two-loss teams with arguments.  Mississippi State beat Alabama and won the SEC (but there is an ugly loss to BYU in there).  Notre Dame navigated a decent schedule pretty well.  And Oklahoma did win the Big 12, as unimpressive as that may be.  In the end, I'll average the chaos and the mundane and say that this possibility is sort of chaotic.  Real decisive of me.

Chaos Level: Moderate

Did the Big 12 screw itself: It's entirely possible.

Other random fun:  Toledo breaks through with a 12-1 record and a MAC title.  North Texas is the latest beneficiary of a bad, bad CUSA and goes 11-2 to win the damn thing.  Ohio State goes 8-4.  Pitt goes 2-10.

Conclusion

After all this fun, what did we learn?  In seven of the ten scenarios we saw decisions that would be as difficult or more difficult than anything the committee has seen to date.  In two or three of them, the situations are undeniably more crazy than the past three years.  What chaos we do see clearly comes in many flavors, so no matter how the next couple months go, a weird ending is always still on the table.  And the Big 12 was probably pretty stupid to create a title game, but that's something Texas Tech head coach Kevin Sumlin can help fix.