College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 2

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Oklahoma	3	66.79%	22.5%
2	Alabama	1	62.26%	-14.0%
3	Georgia	2	62.11%	17.7%
4	Oregon	11	31.53%	26.3%
5	Penn State	6	23.75%	5.0%
6	Clemson	4	22.33%	1.7%
7	Texas A&M	7	17.21%	0.1%
8	Iowa	13	14.92%	6.2%
9	Florida	8	14.26%	6.9%
10	Ohio State	5	13.29%	-40.6%
11	Michigan	10	13.21%	4.2%
12	Ole Miss	15	8.17%	1.8%
13	UCLA	18	7.31%	-3.8%
14	Notre Dame	19	6.09%	-3.8%
15	Virginia Tech	20	5.96%	2.3%
16	Wisconsin	14	4.71%	3.0%
17	Auburn	9	4.54%	0.4%
18	North Carolina	12	4.28%	3.4%
19	Pitt	23	3.09%	1.9%
20	Arizona State	29	2.02%	0.5%
21	Virginia	27	1.95%	1.4%
22	Miami (FL)	22	1.15%	0.1%
23	TCU	25	1.13%	0.2%
24	Kentucky	34	1.02%	0.5%
25	Utah	26	0.79%	-8.8%
26	Arkansas	24	0.78%	0.7%
27	Michigan State	33	0.60%	-0.4%
28	Maryland	41	0.58%	0.4%
29	Iowa State	17	0.55%	-2.1%
30	USC	28	0.45%	-16.9%
31	Mississippi State	44	0.43%	0.4%
32	Boston College	52	0.36%	-0.7%
33	North Carolina State	32	0.30%	-4.0%
34	Cincinnati	16	0.26%	-0.1%
35	Texas	21	0.24%	-11.6%
36	Baylor	46	0.23%	0.2%
37	Kansas State	50	0.18%	-0.2%
38	Oklahoma State	48	0.15%	0.0%
39	Purdue	43	0.11%	0.1%
40	Indiana	40	0.09%	0.1%
41	Rutgers	56	0.08%	0.0%
42	Coastal Carolina	39	0.08%	0.0%
43	Wake Forest	63	0.08%	-0.1%
44	Texas Tech	59	0.08%	-0.6%
45	Stanford	57	0.06%	0.1%
46	Missouri	58	0.06%	-0.1%
47	UCF	30	0.06%	0.0%
48	Nebraska	36	0.05%	0.1%
49	LSU	31	0.04%	0.0%
50	BYU	49	0.03%	0.0%
51	Marshall	62	0.03%	0.0%
52	UTSA	69	0.02%	0.0%
53	Minnesota	55	0.02%	-0.1%
54	West Virginia	37	0.02%	0.0%
55	SMU	38	0.02%	0.0%
56	Liberty	75	0.01%	0.0%
57	Washington	45	0.01%	-0.1%
58	Memphis	51	0.01%	0.0%
59	Nevada	67	0.01%	0.0%
60	Army	77	0.01%	0.0%
61	Louisville	68	0.01%	0.0%
62	San Diego State	73	0.01%	0.0%
63	Tennessee	54	0.01%	-0.1%
64	South Carolina	66	0.01%	0.0%
65	Colorado	60	0.01%	0.0%
66	Wyoming	86	0.00%	0.0%
67	Northwestern	80	0.00%	0.0%
68	Utah State	96	0.00%	0.0%
69	Duke	88	0.00%	0.0%
70	Syracuse	92	0.00%	0.0%
71	Washington State	79	0.00%	0.0%
72	Kansas	117	0.00%	0.0%
73	Georgia Tech	71	0.00%	0.0%
74	Oregon State	74	0.00%	0.0%
75	Vanderbilt	119	0.00%	0.0%
76	Florida State	72	0.00%	0.0%
77	California	65	0.00%	0.0%
78	Illinois	90	0.00%	0.0%
79	Arizona	104	0.00%	0.0%
80	Air Force	94	0.00%	0.0%
81	South Alabama	105	0.00%	0.0%
82	New Mexico	121	0.00%	0.0%
83	Charlotte	109	0.00%	0.0%

Alabama falls back to earth a bit, in part because they were unsustainably high last week, and in part because the rest of the SEC West looks stacked.  Ohio State falls back to earth a lot because they lost (lol), leaving them mere decimal points ahead of (gasp) Michigan.  USC and Texas face virtual elimination two weeks into the season but people will still tell you they're two of the best jobs in the country.  And yup that's five ACC teams not named Clemson with greater than a 1% chance at the Playoff.  Stranger things have happened (they have not).

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	89.3%		North Carolina State	6.0%
ACCC	Virginia Tech	36.6%		North Carolina	18.5%
AMER	Cincinnati	76.0%		UCF	42.2%
B10E	Ohio State	51.8%		Penn State	28.0%
B10W	Iowa	57.6%		Wisconsin	31.4%
B12	Oklahoma	93.8%		Iowa State	31.6%
CUSAE	Marshall	40.8%		Florida Atlantic	37.8%
CUSAW	UTSA	54.2%		UAB	22.6%
MACE	Buffalo	53.1%		Kent State	32.9%
MACW	Toledo	60.3%		Western Michigan	14.8%
MWCW	Fresno State	41.9%		San Diego State	24.0%
MWCM	Boise State	70.1%		Wyoming	12.0%
P12N	Oregon	77.5%		Washington	12.0%
P12S	UCLA	32.3%		Utah	24.8%
SECE	Georgia	77.2%		Florida	17.9%
SECW	Alabama	68.3%		Texas A&M	15.8%
SUNE	Appalachian State	41.5%		Coastal Carolina	41.3%
SUNW	Louisiana	58.9%		Arkansas State	28.8%

This looks a little more normal than it did last week.  Oklahoma and Clemson strengthen their ever-present leads.  Buffalo falls back to the pack while remaining the odds-on favorite.  And Oregon is no longer the only undefeated team in the Pac 12 North, but now is the clear best team.

Week 3 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Florida	Alabama	28.0%	0.092
Penn State	Auburn	61.3%	0.040
Oklahoma	Nebraska	90.5%	0.021
North Carolina	Virginia	72.5%	0.011
Georgia	South Carolina	95.5%	0.009
West Virginia	Virginia Tech	45.6%	0.009
Notre Dame	Purdue	69.6%	0.006
Clemson	Georgia Tech	94.4%	0.006
Ole Miss	Tulane	78.8%	0.006
UCLA	Fresno State	77.0%	0.006

I said this was the worst weekend of the year at the start of the season and I'm sticking to that.  Bama's not going to lose but it'll be fun to see them "tested."  Penn State-Auburn looks better than it did two weeks ago; still, the jury's out on the Tigers until they play someone.  UNC-Virginia could be really good if the Tar Heels' offensive line congeals a bit and VT-WV is a fun game that should be played more often.  Ole Miss-Tulane will have fun offenses and Cincinnati-Indiana should be interesting.  OK maybe this weekend is fine.  It's fine.