Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 9

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	5	96.15%	12.3%
2	Alabama	1	94.52%	6.0%
3	Michigan	2	78.98%	0.1%
4	Washington	6	44.28%	6.1%
5	Ohio State	3	34.39%	4.4%
6	Texas A&M	9	17.36%	2.7%
7	Louisville	4	13.16%	-1.9%
8	Western Michigan	23	11.34%	0.1%
9	LSU	8	2.84%	-0.1%
10	Auburn	7	1.57%	0.7%
11	West Virginia	19	1.48%	-10.3%
12	Wisconsin	12	0.74%	0.1%
13	Penn State	20	0.69%	0.3%
14	Colorado	15	0.60%	0.1%
15	Oklahoma	10	0.49%	0.2%
16	Baylor	17	0.48%	-5.4%
17	Florida	13	0.40%	0.0%
18	Nebraska	25	0.31%	-0.7%
19	North Carolina	24	0.08%	0.0%
20	Oklahoma State	22	0.06%	0.0%
21	Washington State	28	0.05%	0.0%
22	Virginia Tech	18	0.03%	0.0%
23	Utah	36	0.01%	-0.1%
24	Minnesota	46	0.00%	0.0%

1.  Since the first official playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday, a disclaimer:  My rankings are not intended to mirror the week-to-week rankings of the committee.  Rather, the goal of this is to show who has the best odds of making the playoff in the end.  This means that a team that has a difficult remaining schedule (and thus a better chance to lose) will rank lower here than in the committee's eyes.  As this has been a rather straightforward year thus far, there probably won't be any stunning differences from the CFP ranks, but it's still an important distinction to remember.

2.  You may notice that the teams at the top have a really high chance of making the playoff.  For comparison's sake, the top team at this point last year (also Clemson) had just a 56% chance of making the playoff.  Part of this difference is the change in my methodology: My model now recognizes that Clemson and Alabama would have far better one-loss resumes than other teams, and rewards them accordingly.  But the main reason for the dominance of the top three is that they have three incredibly strong cases for playoff inclusion.  Here's a chart that helps explain this:

Team	0-Loss Odds	1-Loss Odds	P(POFF|1LOSS)	2-Loss Odds	P(POFF|2LOSS)	Adj SOS
Clemson	58.65%	34.45%	93.60%	6.68%	29.52%	0.600
Alabama	47.25%	42.84%	94.39%	9.75%	32.49%	0.603
Michigan	42.87%	48.35%	67.66%	8.49%	5.57%	0.555

Obviously, all three teams have about a 50% chance of going undefeated at this point, and if that happens any and all three of these teams is guaranteed a playoff berth.   Where the real difference comes into play is in the scenarios where these teams lose one game.  In this case, Clemson and Alabama's insane strength-of-schedules (yes, a .600 SOS is really good) put them in the company of teams that almost always make the top four.*  Even if these teams drop a couple of games, there's still some chance of making the playoff, although you would have to think the teams that take them down (LSU?  Auburn?  Virginia Tech?) might leap them in the committee's estimation.  Yes, my model is more aggressive with these teams than others are, but all available evidence points to a runaway for the teams at the top.  We shall see.

*For reference, the eight teams that have finished the season with one loss and an SOS of .600 or greater have all made the top four.  This group includes two eventual champions: 2006 Florida and 2015 Alabama.

3.  We say goodbye to six more teams this week: Boise State, Florida State, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Maryland are all officially eliminated.  The first three teams resigned in the middle of last week's rankings (10th, 12th, and 14th), which is part of what helped to collapse the rankings even more than they currently were.

4.  The Big 12 is basically eliminated now, so the picture is even clearer:  If Washington slips up, we'll see a second team from a conference in all likelihood.  Should be fun.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.167
B10	1.151
ACC	1.094
P12	0.449
MAC	0.113
B12	0.025

5.  Conference races continue to take shape.  Clemson is a mortal lock to win the Atlantic after their win, and several other divisions how have a dominant leader as well.  Wisconsin is not in first in the Big Ten West, but they are a better team than Nebraska and have an easier remaining schedule, plus that tie-breaker due to their win last night (grrr).  Boise is still the favorite after their loss (they're still two touchdowns better than Wyoming in the composite ratings), but it should be a much more interesting race now.  For my money, the best race is in the Sun Belt, where Troy and App State should battle it out until the end.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	98.6%		Louisville	1.4%
ACCC	Virginia Tech	78.4%		North Carolina	21.1%
AMEE	Temple	76.4%		South Florida	22.3%
AMEW	Navy	46.3%		Tulsa	27.5%
B10E	Michigan	70.5%		Ohio State	23.5%
B10W	Wisconsin	58.0%		Nebraska	25.2%
B12	Oklahoma	65.0%		West Virginia	14.8%
CUSAE	Western Kentucky	78.6%		Middle Tennessee	15.4%
CUSAW	Louisiana Tech	65.9%		Southern Miss	32.6%
MACE	Ohio	81.1%		Akron	13.9%
MACW	Western Michigan	87.7%		Toledo	12.2%
MWCW	San Diego State	99.2%		Hawaii	0.7%
MWCM	Boise State	55.4%		Wyoming	39.3%
P12N	Washington	79.4%		Washington State	20.6%
P12S	Colorado	74.3%		Utah	14.3%
SECE	Florida	86.2%		Tennessee	9.5%
SECW	Alabama	75.1%		Auburn	13.6%
SUN	Appalachian State	47.2%		Troy	46.6%

Week 10 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
LSU	Alabama	30.7%	0.120
Ohio State	Nebraska	87.0%	0.026
California	Washington	13.8%	0.020
Mississippi State	Texas A&M	17.8%	0.016
Clemson	Syracuse	96.3%	0.012
Michigan	Maryland	97.8%	0.006
Ball State	Western Michigan	10.1%	0.004
Boston College	Louisville	5.3%	0.003
Northwestern	Wisconsin	30.6%	0.003
Penn State	Iowa	69.5%	0.002

Much like previous weeks, there is one game that far and away has the most playoff implications.  Verne's final night game should be a doozy.  Other than that, there are still a couple of other big games, including some decent road tests.  If Virginia and Michigan State could compel one-score games last week, it's reasonable to expect that one or two of these home underdogs will make some noise.