| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 2 | 77.99% | 10.2% |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 77.81% | -0.2% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 3 | 68.52% | 4.3% |
| 4 | Michigan | 1 | 64.91% | -3.6% |
| 5 | Washington | 5 | 37.90% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 7 | 27.54% | -2.6% |
| 7 | Louisville | 6 | 11.92% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Western Michigan | 22 | 9.72% | 3.6% |
| 9 | Florida State | 12 | 5.23% | -1.9% |
| 10 | Boise State | 27 | 4.91% | -0.6% |
| 11 | West Virginia | 23 | 4.18% | 3.2% |
| 12 | Baylor | 16 | 3.37% | 0.6% |
| 13 | Tennessee | 20 | 1.49% | -12.0% |
| 14 | Nebraska | 21 | 1.22% | 0.5% |
| 15 | LSU | 8 | 1.15% | -0.1% |
| 16 | Auburn | 9 | 0.50% | 0.1% |
| 17 | Wisconsin | 13 | 0.43% | -0.6% |
| 18 | Oklahoma | 11 | 0.36% | 0.1% |
| 19 | Florida | 14 | 0.34% | -0.1% |
| 20 | Colorado | 18 | 0.12% | 0.1% |
| 21 | Washington State | 25 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Arkansas | 34 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Miami (FL) | 15 | 0.06% | -1.4% |
| 24 | North Carolina | 31 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 25 | North Carolina State | 33 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Penn State | 36 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Stanford | 30 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Oklahoma State | 26 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Utah | 41 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 30 | TCU | 29 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Virginia Tech | 24 | 0.01% | -0.3% |
| 32 | Pitt | 35 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Wake Forest | 55 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Arizona State | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Minnesota | 51 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Iowa | 38 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Maryland | 62 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Aside from the fallout of Alabama's blowout of Tennessee, there wasn't much significant movement this week. So let's talk about something that's really weird: We still have nine undefeated teams from power conferences, and only three one-loss teams. This lack of a "middle class" is a big reason why there are only 15 teams with a 1% chance or greater of making the playoff (at this point last year, there were 25). What's even weirder is how divergent those three teams are. Louisville is doing just fine, sitting in the top ten waiting for a couple of key teams to lose. Florida falls just below the 1% mark, mostly because their finishing schedule (Arkansas, LSU, FSU) is quite daunting. And Utah barely registers a blip, almost entirely because computers do not like them. Odds are that none of these teams make a serious run at a playoff berth, but from a pure win-loss perspective, they're in much better shape than a lot of other teams.
2. We had a relatively mild week for eliminations, with just Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Indiana, and Purdue leaving us. Ole Miss is easily the best team eliminated thus far (10th in the composite ratings), well ahead of Houston (17th) and USC (19th). In theory, winning out would make them a uniquely attractive three-loss team, but the odds of getting the critical extra win in the SEC title game are basically non-existant (they only made it there 13 times in 10000 simulations).
3. Conference odds mostly remain the same, since very few teams moved around in the ratings. Washington is the most important team in all of this, as a loss by them makes in entirely possible that two teams make it from one of the top three conferences.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| B10 | 1.351 |
| SEC | 1.091 |
| ACC | 0.951 |
| P12 | 0.381 |
| MAC | 0.097 |
| B12 | 0.079 |
| MWC | 0.049 |
4. Unsurprisingly, there isn't a lot of movement in the conference title races, either. Still, of note: UNC takes charge in a once-again up-for-grabs Coastal, the East divisions of the CUSA and MAC are complete toss-ups, and Tennessee's odds move up a bunch because I re-added the LSU-Florida game to the docket.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 75.8% | Louisville | 23.5% | |
| ACCC | North Carolina | 50.0% | Virginia Tech | 31.6% | |
| AMEE | South Florida | 79.5% | Temple | 18.2% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 52.0% | Memphis | 28.6% | |
| B10E | Michigan | 55.1% | Ohio State | 44.2% | |
| B10W | Nebraska | 56.9% | Wisconsin | 24.3% | |
| CUSAE | Western Kentucky | 38.8% | Middle Tennessee | 36.2% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 59.8% | Southern Miss | 31.2% | |
| MACE | Akron | 48.8% | Ohio | 40.9% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 79.1% | Toledo | 19.1% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 93.6% | UNLV | 4.4% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 94.7% | Wyoming | 2.7% | |
| P12N | Washington | 81.9% | Washington State | 17.5% | |
| P12S | Colorado | 66.0% | USC | 15.1% | |
| SECE | Tennessee | 72.6% | Florida | 26.6% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 74.9% | Texas A&M | 19.2% |
Week 8 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Alabama | Texas A&M | 80.9% | 0.140 |
| Penn State | Ohio State | 12.4% | 0.031 |
| Louisville | North Carolina State | 87.7% | 0.010 |
| West Virginia | TCU | 61.9% | 0.008 |
| LSU | Ole Miss | 61.5% | 0.008 |
| Boise State | BYU | 66.9% | 0.006 |
| Auburn | Arkansas | 81.5% | 0.004 |
| Washington | Oregon State | 97.7% | 0.003 |
| Michigan | Illinois | 98.7% | 0.003 |
| Iowa | Wisconsin | 36.4% | 0.002 |
Much like Week 7, this coming weekend doesn't offer the best depth of games. That said, we get a couple of strong tests for the teams at the top, followed by a bunch of battles between mid-level playoff contenders, most of them in the SEC West. West Virginia-TCU probably has the highest likelihood for weirdness, but don't count out Auburn-Arkansas, either. Just missing the list in 11th and 12th place are a couple of oddly important games: Stanford-Colorado and EMU-WMU. Watch either of those before you watch Michigan-Illinois, for your own health and well-being.
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