| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 2 | 97.61% | 3.1% |
| 2 | Clemson | 5 | 95.28% | -0.9% |
| 3 | Michigan | 1 | 79.74% | 0.8% |
| 4 | Washington | 6 | 48.17% | 3.9% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 3 | 42.84% | 8.5% |
| 6 | Louisville | 4 | 13.97% | 0.8% |
| 7 | Western Michigan | 19 | 12.36% | 1.0% |
| 8 | Auburn | 7 | 2.46% | 0.9% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 9 | 2.01% | -15.3% |
| 10 | West Virginia | 24 | 1.67% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Penn State | 15 | 1.04% | 0.4% |
| 12 | Colorado | 11 | 0.94% | 0.3% |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 13 | 0.76% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 12 | 0.62% | 0.1% |
| 15 | North Carolina | 18 | 0.16% | 0.1% |
| 16 | Nebraska | 37 | 0.14% | -0.2% |
| 17 | Washington State | 16 | 0.13% | 0.1% |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 25 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Virginia Tech | 21 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Utah | 35 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Baylor | 30 | 0.00% | -0.5% |
| 22 | Florida | 22 | 0.00% | -0.4% |
| 23 | Minnesota | 47 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Very little changed at the top this week, other than Bama moving up to #1 after passing a test, and A&M falling down after failing a test. Unless something weird happens, 4 of the current top 6 are going to be in playoff. This is a little more boring than last year, but 1) it's the truth and 2) the playoff itself should be awesome.
2. This is a little further down the rankings, but it's a fun effect of conference title games. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are roughly equal teams with similar remaining schedules. Yet, UNC is about 8 times more likely to make the playoff than the Hokies. The reason for this is that VT is much more likely to win the division and have to play Clemson, which means they are far less likely to finish with just two losses. In reality, the committee may not punish conference title losses as much as other losses, but it's still an interesting display of how my model works.
3. We say goodbye to just one team this week: LSU. The Tigers are the best team eliminated yet (8th in the composite ratings), but it was clear that offense wasn't getting fixed enough to compete at the highest level, this year at least.
4. The conference race stays basically the same, too. If someone's getting two teams in, it's the Big Ten, as A&M can no longer be an 11-1 runner up in the SEC West:
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| B10 | 1.245 |
| ACC | 1.094 |
| SEC | 1.021 |
| P12 | 0.492 |
| MAC | 0.124 |
| B12 | 0.024 |
5. Congrats to San Diego State on becoming the first team to clinch their division. While the Aztecs are good, it helps to be in the worst division possible. In other news, there are still five teams with a chance to win the terrible SEC East, and the team currently in fifth place (Tennessee) nearly has the best odds of doing so. Finally, the ACC Atlantic is almost certainly the most humorous race. In my 10,000 simulations, Clemson won the division 9,959 times. Another 40 times, Clemson lost both their remaining games, and Louisville took the division. And in one bizarre timeline, Wake Forest became the team of destiny and won the division themselves by sweeping two top five teams.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 99.6% | Louisville | 0.4% | |
| ACCC | Virginia Tech | 83.9% | North Carolina | 16.1% | |
| AMEE | Temple | 88.5% | South Florida | 10.7% | |
| AMEW | Navy | 43.5% | Tulsa | 38.2% | |
| B10E | Michigan | 65.6% | Ohio State | 22.7% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 83.7% | Nebraska | 9.1% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 67.4% | West Virginia | 16.7% | |
| CUSAE | Western Kentucky | 90.8% | Old Dominion | 7.7% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 83.0% | UTSA | 9.9% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 88.0% | Miami (OH) | 8.7% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 85.2% | Toledo | 14.8% | |
| MWCE | San Diego State | 100.0% | |||
| MWCM | Wyoming | 58.2% | Boise State | 36.2% | |
| P12N | Washington | 72.6% | Washington State | 27.4% | |
| P12S | Colorado | 80.5% | Utah | 11.1% | |
| SECE | Florida | 50.8% | Tennessee | 46.6% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 84.9% | Auburn | 15.1% | |
| SUN | Troy | 44.4% | Appalachian State | 43.8% |
Week 11 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Washington | USC | 78.3% | 0.036 |
| Clemson | Pitt | 92.1% | 0.026 |
| Iowa | Michigan | 6.5% | 0.018 |
| Maryland | Ohio State | 4.5% | 0.010 |
| Alabama | Mississippi State | 97.2% | 0.009 |
| Texas A&M | Ole Miss | 66.6% | 0.007 |
| Texas | West Virginia | 46.7% | 0.004 |
| Georgia | Auburn | 13.9% | 0.004 |
| Kent State | Western Michigan | 7.4% | 0.003 |
| Louisville | Wake Forest | 96.7% | 0.002 |
The next two weeks certainly have games worth watching, but there's not much punch at the top when compared to past weeks. Washington-USC should be an entertaining game, but there's little else involving the top teams that is likely to be competitive. If we're looking further down the list, Minnesota-Nebraska, Oklahoma-Baylor, and App State-Troy are all interesting games that will have impacts on things other than the playoff field.
No comments:
Post a Comment