| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Clemson | 4 | 77.99% | 11.7% |
| 2 | Michigan | 1 | 68.55% | 11.8% |
| 3 | Alabama | 2 | 67.77% | 4.7% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 3 | 64.24% | -14.5% |
| 5 | Washington | 6 | 36.08% | 11.0% |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 7 | 30.15% | 5.2% |
| 7 | Tennessee | 13 | 13.47% | -9.0% |
| 8 | Louisville | 5 | 11.80% | 2.7% |
| 9 | Florida State | 9 | 7.16% | 2.5% |
| 10 | Western Michigan | 34 | 6.16% | -1.9% |
| 11 | Boise State | 21 | 5.53% | 0.8% |
| 12 | Baylor | 19 | 2.74% | -1.7% |
| 13 | Miami (FL) | 14 | 1.41% | -6.1% |
| 14 | LSU | 8 | 1.29% | -0.3% |
| 15 | Ole Miss | 10 | 1.23% | -0.9% |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 16 | 1.07% | -1.3% |
| 17 | West Virginia | 31 | 1.02% | -2.0% |
| 18 | Nebraska | 23 | 0.70% | -2.5% |
| 19 | Auburn | 11 | 0.40% | 0.1% |
| 20 | Florida | 17 | 0.40% | -0.2% |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 12 | 0.30% | -0.2% |
| 22 | Virginia Tech | 18 | 0.27% | -0.2% |
| 23 | Penn State | 33 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Colorado | 24 | 0.03% | -1.0% |
| 25 | North Carolina | 30 | 0.03% | -1.5% |
| 26 | Washington State | 27 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Utah | 41 | 0.02% | -0.3% |
| 28 | Stanford | 26 | 0.02% | -1.4% |
| 29 | Oklahoma State | 25 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 30 | North Carolina State | 42 | 0.02% | -0.1% |
| 31 | Arkansas | 36 | 0.02% | -0.3% |
| 32 | Georgia | 45 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Maryland | 53 | 0.01% | -1.1% |
| 34 | Arizona State | 47 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 35 | TCU | 28 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Texas Tech | 38 | 0.00% | -0.4% |
| 37 | Pitt | 35 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Wake Forest | 63 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Kansas State | 39 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Iowa | 37 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Minnesota | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Indiana | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Purdue | 95 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. The top of the list continues to congeal, as the best teams on paper, the highest ranked teams in the polls, and the teams with the best shot of making the playoff are all the same. Clemson and Michigan's latest dominations help edge them over the previous top two, but make no mistake: A playoff featuring the top four teams is easy to envision at this point. Still, the next four teams represent a decent set of challengers that should keep things interesting down the stretch. That spots 9 through 11 feature a two-loss team and two Group of Five teams shows us the separation between the top and the rest. There's still potential for chaos, but it's looking less and less like we'll see anything resembling the free-for-all of 2007.
2. Another mediocre crew of teams leaves us this week. Say goodbye to Houston, Air Force, UCLA, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, California, Texas, Michigan State, and Boston College. Did you know Michigan State is 61st in the aggregate rankings, which puts them one spot behind Troy? That's some mad Spartans disrespect.
3. The conference race is basically the same as it's been the past few weeks. The Ohio State-Michigan stranglehold gives the Big Ten an edge, but I can see realistic scenarios for any of the top three conferences to place multiple teams in the playoff. If Washington trips up at any point, there aren't any other natural replacements from the other seven conferences. So the committee may very well have their most fun decision yet coming up in a couple months.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| B10 | 1.480 |
| SEC | 1.278 |
| ACC | 1.062 |
| P12 | 0.393 |
| B12 | 0.083 |
| MAC | 0.066 |
| MWC | 0.059 |
4. An update to a small change I made a few weeks ago: At the time, there were only a couple of teams (Bama and OSU) with legitimate playoff odds, and any attempt to scale up my results to equal four was looking ugly. Now, the simulations spits out 4.05 playoff teams without me having to make any adjustments. This means that the effects of the adjustments I was making (puffing up the "middle-class" teams with 1-5% playoff odds) have vanished. So no, Nebraska didn't suddenly get worse during their bye week. Rather, I no longer need to fill in the missing playoff odds as we now have a handful of strong contenders.
5. So here is this. Do note that I don't currently have the Florida-LSU game in my database, so Florida actually becomes a slight favorite over the Vols:
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 74.7% | Louisville | 24.7% | |
| ACCC | Virginia Tech | 62.0% | Miami (FL) | 23.8% | |
| AMEE | South Florida | 79.8% | Temple | 10.9% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 50.3% | Memphis | 29.2% | |
| B10E | Michigan | 56.3% | Ohio State | 42.5% | |
| B10W | Nebraska | 47.3% | Wisconsin | 35.5% | |
| CUSAE | Middle Tennessee | 60.5% | Old Dominion | 19.0% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 54.4% | Southern Miss | 37.9% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 54.0% | Akron | 38.2% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 65.6% | Toledo | 32.1% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 90.5% | Hawaii | 4.5% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 92.9% | Air Force | 5.1% | |
| P12N | Washington | 87.4% | Washington State | 11.3% | |
| P12S | Colorado | 45.6% | UCLA | 18.6% | |
| SECE | Florida | 55.0% | Tennessee | 40.5% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 61.8% | Texas A&M | 25.4% |
As the occurrence seems quite bizarre, I would like to explain why Colorado is winning the Pac 12 South in a large plurality of simulations (for the record, Utah and USC are both at 14%, while Arizona State sits at 8%). The reason is actually a fascinating co-occurrence of two important things: current number of losses and relative team strength. The standings in the South currently feature Colorado, Utah and Arizona State with one conference loss apiece, while USC and UCLA have two losses. At the same time, UCLA, USC, and Colorado (rated 20th, 22nd, and 24th in the computers) have a bit of separation from the other two (Utah is 41st while ASU is 47th), meaning it's a little more likely that one of the former group of teams will go on a run. Essentially, the teams that should be Colorado's main competition have already lost one more game apiece, making a comeback a little more difficult. Add in a little scheduling favorability (ASU, Utah, and USC all have to play Washington while Colorado doesn't), and the Buffaloes are somehow the clear favorite in the South. 2016 is weird.
Week 7 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Tennessee | Alabama | 26.0% | 0.121 |
| Wisconsin | Ohio State | 22.2% | 0.060 |
| Clemson | North Carolina State | 92.5% | 0.021 |
| Arkansas | Ole Miss | 28.7% | 0.007 |
| Florida State | Wake Forest | 92.5% | 0.006 |
| Texas Tech | West Virginia | 55.2% | 0.006 |
| Akron | Western Michigan | 16.5% | 0.004 |
| Miami (FL) | North Carolina | 74.4% | 0.003 |
| Indiana | Nebraska | 29.1% | 0.003 |
| Maryland | Minnesota | 59.8% | 0.002 |
Week 7 is pretty barren, but at least the top three games involve three of the best teams getting tested at different times of the day. West Virginia's first real road test also has the potential to get weird, so there's that, too. And Nebraska gets a road game against a surprisingly balanced Indiana team that should scare every Husker fan. Finally, I'm sorry that a game involving Minnesota made it onto this list. I'm trying to remove it.
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