College Football Playoff Predictor - Week 13

As always, explanation here, data below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Georgia	1	97.37%	0.4%
2	Michigan	4	65.19%	31.9%
3	Notre Dame	5	64.23%	-11.1%
4	Oklahoma State	8	60.93%	20.7%
5	Alabama	3	39.70%	-0.6%
6	Cincinnati	6	28.15%	24.0%
7	Ohio State	2	10.16%	-45.9%
8	Michigan State	29	8.82%	2.7%
9	Ole Miss	17	7.94%	-0.4%
10	Baylor	18	6.47%	-2.7%
11	Oklahoma	9	2.82%	-17.1%
12	Wake Forest	22	2.77%	-0.1%
13	Oregon	20	2.65%	-0.9%
14	Pitt	12	1.53%	-0.2%
15	Iowa	21	1.25%	-0.4%

Cincinnati's perseverance in the committee's rankings has finally caused me to make a change.  Instead of treating them like a two-loss team like I normally do for Group of Five teams, I am now treating them as a one-loss team.  Even with this adjustment, their .500 strength of schedule still limits them in my model's estimation, but that might change depending on what happens in front of them.  In other news, Notre Dame drops down from their previous high mostly because not enough other teams have lost.  I still think the Irish make it in with a Bama loss and maybe one other upset, but if that doesn't happen my model might not quite sync with reality.  So for every possible reason, let's go chaos!

Championship Week Preview

Team 1	Team 2	Team 1 Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Alabama	Georgia	33.2%	0.240
Oklahoma State	Baylor	64.5%	0.158
Michigan	Iowa	76.2%	0.087
Cincinnati	Houston	80.7%	0.054
Pitt	Wake Forest	62.2%	0.023
Oregon	Utah	43.8%	0.015

It's now year eight of the Playoff era, and there has yet to be an impactful upset on Championship Week.  Alabama, Baylor, Iowa, and Houston average a total of about 1.1 wins per simulation.  Maybe this is the year?  If it isn't, you can at least enjoy fun games in Wake-Pitt and Louisiana-App State.