Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 4

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Alabama	1	80.63%	1.4%
2	Clemson	4	72.33%	12.0%
3	Georgia	3	42.82%	6.8%
4	Penn State	5	36.48%	3.1%
5	Ohio State	2	34.27%	-8.3%
6	Oklahoma	7	27.13%	-7.8%
7	Notre Dame	11	25.53%	10.4%
8	Washington	8	18.45%	-3.0%
9	Stanford	14	18.06%	8.5%
10	West Virginia	16	5.69%	3.4%
11	LSU	18	5.64%	1.1%
12	Michigan	6	5.51%	3.5%
13	North Carolina State	29	5.34%	3.6%
14	Duke	25	3.76%	0.6%
15	Miami (FL)	17	2.92%	0.3%
16	Kentucky	30	2.45%	2.3%
17	Oklahoma State	19	1.69%	-16.1%
18	Auburn	9	1.55%	0.3%
19	South Carolina	23	1.49%	1.2%
20	Mississippi State	12	1.00%	-14.4%
21	Texas Tech	24	0.98%	1.0%
22	Texas A&M	15	0.69%	-0.1%
23	Michigan State	13	0.68%	0.2%
24	Syracuse	43	0.66%	0.3%
25	Wisconsin	10	0.60%	0.4%
26	Iowa	26	0.59%	-1.3%
27	Florida	21	0.57%	0.5%
28	Missouri	28	0.40%	0.0%
29	Texas	22	0.39%	0.3%
30	Washington State	32	0.39%	-1.0%
31	California	47	0.29%	0.1%
32	Central Florida	36	0.22%	0.1%
33	Boston College	39	0.16%	-4.3%
34	Utah	35	0.14%	-0.1%
35	North Texas	46	0.10%	0.1%
36	Oregon	37	0.10%	-0.4%
37	Virginia Tech	40	0.09%	-4.3%
38	USC	31	0.05%	0.0%
39	TCU	27	0.03%	-0.2%
40	Colorado	55	0.02%	0.0%
41	Buffalo	69	0.02%	0.0%
42	Virginia	50	0.02%	0.0%
43	Indiana	53	0.01%	-0.1%
44	South Florida	61	0.01%	0.0%
45	Cincinnati	65	0.01%	0.0%
46	Maryland	49	0.00%	0.0%
47	Arizona State	42	0.00%	0.0%
48	Baylor	51	0.00%	0.0%
49	Minnesota	60	0.00%	-0.1%
50	Iowa State	48	0.00%	0.0%
51	Arizona	56	0.00%	0.0%
52	Vanderbilt	58	0.00%	0.0%
53	Wake Forest	66	0.00%	0.0%
54	Louisville	72	0.00%	0.0%
55	Kansas State	73	0.00%	0.0%
56	Illinois	94	0.00%	0.0%
57	Pitt	70	0.00%	0.0%
58	Tennessee	67	0.00%	0.0%
59	Kansas	83	0.00%	0.0%
60	Florida State	62	0.00%	0.0%
61	Northwestern	54	0.00%	0.0%
62	North Carolina	68	0.00%	0.0%

1.  A wild week leads to relatively straightforward results in the playoff odds.  There were six teams that have never won a title in the top 15 last week, and four of them (VT, OSU, Miss St, and BC) lost.  So we're left with a clearly-delineated top nine that contains 8 traditional powers and Stanford.  On one hand, this is boring, but on the other hand there is a lot of season left, which leaves a lot of time for upsets.

If you're reading this, you might be an ND fan, and you might be wondering why ND is only slightly higher than their preseason Playoff odds (25% vs 20%).  After all, the Irish's computer ratings are roughly the same as they were then and they've got four wins in the bank.  The main problem though is that an SOS that looked formidable a month ago is now well below average.  This means that an 11-1 ND is going to have trouble getting in, especially if enough other top teams finish 11-1 or better.

One notable oddity is that a 2-2 Texas A&M team is still in the top 25.  This is stunning given that a third loss eliminates you from contention in my model, which means that their entire case is dependent on winning out against a schedule that includes LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The Aggies are clearly a very good team so it's not that weird to dream on an unlikely run.  But it's still pretty weird.

2.  Eight more teams were eliminated this week, leaving us less than half of FBS.  Goodbye to Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Oregon State.  Brief note on the Huskers: Yeah, it sucks to be this bad, but at least they're getting the stupidly hard schedule out of the way now.  2019 features Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State at home, and they miss out on all the other powers from the East.

3.  We finally have a mild amount of intrigue in the conference-level playoff odds, as the ACC leaps into second place.  Just as importantly, the CUSA jumps above 0 for the first time this year.  Woohoo.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.373
ACC	0.853
B10	0.782
P12	0.375
B12	0.359
IND	0.255
AMER	0.002
CUSA	0.001
MAC	0.000

4.  An interesting week in the conference title grid.  Georgia passes a mild test, but actually loses a little ground to an insurgent Kentucky.  Utah State keeps creeping up on Boise.  And Miami and USC, both somewhat written off by the media, are both at even odds to win their divisions.  Finally, something that may interest you just off the grid: Texas Tech is the third-most likely team to reach the Big 12 title game.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	87.6%		North Carolina State	6.4%
ACCC	Miami (FL)	51.9%		Duke	22.9%
AMEE	Central Florida	56.3%		South Florida	19.6%
AMEW	Memphis	51.1%		Houston	43.0%
B10E	Ohio State	48.1%		Penn State	29.2%
B10W	Wisconsin	81.7%		Iowa	9.2%
B12	Oklahoma	74.1%		West Virginia	36.7%
CUSAE	Marshall	38.2%		Florida International	36.9%
CUSAW	North Texas	74.7%		Louisiana Tech	13.6%
MACE	Buffalo	65.8%		Ohio	14.3%
MACW	Toledo	48.0%		Western Michigan	27.6%
MWCW	Fresno State	77.9%		San Diego State	16.1%
MWCM	Boise State	69.3%		Utah State	29.5%
P12N	Washington	68.0%		Stanford	27.6%
P12S	USC	49.6%		Arizona	15.2%
SECE	Georgia	86.6%		Kentucky	8.3%
SECW	Alabama	95.1%		LSU	2.8%
SUNE	Appalachian State	81.0%		Troy	10.5%
SUNW	Arkansas State	80.7%		Louisiana-Monroe	8.9%

Week 5 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Penn State	Ohio State	46.0%	0.118
Notre Dame	Stanford	59.3%	0.070
Clemson	Syracuse	92.1%	0.021
Texas Tech	West Virginia	46.7%	0.011
Oklahoma	Baylor	90.3%	0.009
Washington	BYU	91.5%	0.008
Kentucky	South Carolina	49.4%	0.008
North Carolina State	Virginia	71.8%	0.005
Georgia	Tennessee	96.5%	0.005
LSU	Ole Miss	76.4%	0.004

Week 5 is now the third-most important weekend of the year, largely because of two even games involving teams in the top ten.  Other than that, the week features mostly solid home favorites, so there's not a lot else to recommend, other than a suddenly very important West Virginia-Texas Tech game and a chance for Kentucky to start 3-0 in the SEC.  Unless you're a true degenerate like me, I recommend enjoying the outdoors on the last weekend of September before taking in the two big night games.