| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 71.91% | -1.5% |
| 2 | Ohio State | 2 | 56.73% | 7.5% |
| 3 | Clemson | 5 | 56.28% | -3.1% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 3 | 48.08% | 4.3% |
| 5 | Georgia | 4 | 40.09% | 18.5% |
| 6 | Penn State | 6 | 22.02% | 13.2% |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 14 | 19.46% | -13.8% |
| 8 | Stanford | 13 | 14.19% | 6.1% |
| 9 | Mississippi State | 9 | 13.97% | 3.8% |
| 10 | Washington | 7 | 11.72% | 0.4% |
| 11 | Auburn | 11 | 7.40% | -18.5% |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 10 | 5.71% | -5.3% |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 19 | 4.25% | -0.1% |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | 15 | 3.80% | -0.1% |
| 15 | Boston College | 22 | 3.71% | 0.1% |
| 16 | Michigan | 8 | 3.15% | 1.1% |
| 17 | Duke | 24 | 2.70% | 2.2% |
| 18 | Iowa | 28 | 1.96% | -3.6% |
| 19 | LSU | 17 | 1.86% | -1.6% |
| 20 | West Virginia | 20 | 1.48% | 0.6% |
| 21 | Oregon | 25 | 1.42% | -0.2% |
| 22 | Utah | 29 | 1.18% | 0.0% |
| 23 | North Carolina State | 37 | 0.97% | 0.5% |
| 24 | Missouri | 26 | 0.74% | 0.3% |
| 25 | Miami (FL) | 21 | 0.74% | 0.3% |
| 26 | TCU | 23 | 0.64% | -0.2% |
| 27 | Boise State | 12 | 0.62% | 0.3% |
| 28 | Texas A&M | 16 | 0.51% | -0.8% |
| 29 | Michigan State | 18 | 0.46% | -6.8% |
| 30 | Washington State | 38 | 0.44% | -0.1% |
| 31 | Arizona State | 33 | 0.33% | 0.2% |
| 32 | USC | 30 | 0.33% | -0.9% |
| 33 | California | 44 | 0.24% | -0.1% |
| 34 | Maryland | 42 | 0.13% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Kentucky | 45 | 0.11% | 0.1% |
| 36 | South Carolina | 35 | 0.11% | -0.4% |
| 37 | Vanderbilt | 43 | 0.10% | 0.1% |
| 38 | Wake Forest | 52 | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Minnesota | 47 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Colorado | 54 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Central Florida | 40 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Florida | 36 | 0.03% | -2.0% |
| 43 | South Florida | 53 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Texas | 31 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Toledo | 55 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Indiana | 57 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Georgia Tech | 34 | 0.02% | -0.1% |
| 48 | Syracuse | 62 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Florida State | 50 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Houston | 46 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Louisville | 60 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Texas Tech | 41 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 53 | North Texas | 71 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Baylor | 59 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Cincinnati | 67 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Eastern Michigan | 78 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Marshall | 70 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Virginia | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Northwestern | 51 | 0.00% | -0.3% |
| 60 | Iowa State | 56 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Georgia Southern | 83 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Buffalo | 90 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Illinois | 81 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Ohio | 103 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Louisiana Tech | 76 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Louisiana-Monroe | 110 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Akron | 107 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Hawaii | 105 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 109 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Arkansas | 64 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Nebraska | 49 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Pitt | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Kansas State | 68 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Rutgers | 89 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Tennessee | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Oregon State | 88 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Kansas | 95 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 78 | North Carolina | 73 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 79 | Arizona | 74 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 80 | UCLA | 66 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 81 | Purdue | 63 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. A relatively mild week of football resulted in fewer wild swings than last week. There was still some weirdness - most notably, the two biggest droppers both won their games. Notre Dame fell because a lackluster showing against Ball State killed their computer ratings, while Auburn fell largely because everyone else on their future schedule looked really good*. And Clemson passed one of their biggest early season tests, but also dropped. Part of the reason for this is that two of the systems I use (FPI and S&P+) are fairly reactive to early season results. So if you underperform at all, my playoff odds will inherently be more suspicious of you than common sense may dictate.
*The Tigers are one spot behind Washington, even though they beat them. The simplest way to explain this is that my sim has an average of 2 additional losses for the Huskies and 3.5 for Auburn.
2. Charlie Strong is now one spot higher than Texas, which tickles me to no end. That is all.
3. Another week of non-conference play, another set of Group of Five teams face elimination. Say goodbye to Memphis, Fresno State, UAB, Arkansas State, BYU, Tulsa, Ball State, Southern Miss, Air Force, New Mexico, Nevada, Georgia State, Liberty, and Charlotte.
4. No major changes to the conference-level playoff odds, other than Notre Dame hurting their "conference's" chances. The ACC remains in a surprisingly precarious place with just one serious contender.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.368 |
| B10 | 0.902 |
| ACC | 0.688 |
| B12 | 0.540 |
| P12 | 0.299 |
| IND | 0.195 |
| MWC | 0.006 |
| AMER | 0.001 |
| MAC | 0.000 |
| CUSA | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 |
5. The conference title grid makes its debut for the season. Notable changes since the beginning include Georgia and Alabama going from strong favorites to stronger favorites, Marshall and Fresno pulling way ahead in races that were previously coin flips, and the MAC doing its best to fulfill my prophecy of a Buffalo-EMU title game. Also, it's possible that no one wins the Pac-12 South.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 78.6% | Boston College | 11.6% | |
| ACCC | Virginia Tech | 44.4% | Miami (FL) | 27.1% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 52.5% | South Florida | 29.7% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 47.5% | Houston | 40.3% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 69.6% | Penn State | 15.5% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 65.9% | Iowa | 24.5% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 90.2% | Oklahoma State | 42.2% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 55.3% | Florida Atlantic | 18.9% | |
| CUSAW | North Texas | 53.3% | Louisiana Tech | 29.0% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 42.4% | Ohio | 19.1% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 62.8% | Eastern Michigan | 15.3% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 75.5% | San Diego State | 14.6% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 88.1% | Utah State | 10.4% | |
| P12N | Washington | 54.3% | Stanford | 29.0% | |
| P12S | USC | 40.3% | Utah | 26.4% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 88.3% | Missouri | 7.4% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 81.1% | Mississippi State | 9.4% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 75.7% | Georgia Southern | 16.7% | |
| SUNW | Arkansas State | 49.6% | Louisiana-Monroe | 23.8% |
Week 3 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| TCU | Ohio State | 14.1% | 0.028 |
| Ole Miss | Alabama | 10.8% | 0.026 |
| Utah | Washington | 29.1% | 0.020 |
| Iowa State | Oklahoma | 8.0% | 0.013 |
| Notre Dame | Vanderbilt | 81.3% | 0.012 |
| Auburn | LSU | 67.0% | 0.012 |
| Oklahoma State | Boise State | 50.3% | 0.009 |
| Clemson | Georgia Southern | 97.2% | 0.005 |
| Wake Forest | Boston College | 32.1% | 0.004 |
| North Carolina State | West Virginia | 40.1% | 0.004 |
Another mediocre week at least features 1) a little more depth than previous weeks, and 2) good teams going on the road. Iowa State may only have an 8% chance of beating Oklahoma, but last year they were at only 5%, so you never know. In other news, the Irish get a significantly tougher test than I was expecting, Okie State-Boise is a literal toss-up, and BC-Wake has turned into one of the best Thursday night games of the year. That may not sound that exciting, but you just read to the end of this post, so your perception of what is exciting may be warped.
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