Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 1

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Alabama	1	73.38%	17.3%
2	Clemson	3	59.38%	-0.7%
3	Ohio State	2	49.20%	5.1%
4	Oklahoma	4	43.77%	8.5%
5	Notre Dame	8	33.26%	12.8%
6	Auburn	5	25.89%	9.5%
7	Georgia	6	21.56%	-7.0%
8	Washington	7	11.28%	-23.4%
9	Wisconsin	9	10.97%	0.1%
10	Mississippi State	10	10.21%	3.6%
11	Penn State	13	8.78%	-6.9%
12	Stanford	11	8.13%	1.8%
13	Michigan State	15	7.25%	-7.2%
14	Iowa	19	5.60%	3.1%
15	Virginia Tech	18	4.37%	2.9%
16	Oklahoma State	16	3.91%	-0.8%
17	Boston College	24	3.62%	3.1%
18	LSU	14	3.44%	2.9%
19	Michigan	12	2.03%	-6.3%
20	Florida	21	2.00%	0.3%
21	Oregon	22	1.64%	-0.5%
22	Texas A&M	17	1.27%	0.1%
23	USC	23	1.22%	-1.7%
24	Utah	26	1.21%	0.6%
25	West Virginia	28	0.90%	0.8%
26	TCU	25	0.81%	-0.1%
27	Duke	34	0.52%	0.3%
28	Washington State	37	0.51%	0.4%
29	North Carolina State	43	0.51%	-0.4%
30	South Carolina	31	0.50%	-0.1%
31	Missouri	33	0.42%	-0.1%
32	Miami (FL)	27	0.39%	-10.5%
33	California	42	0.35%	-0.1%
34	Boise State	20	0.35%	0.2%
35	Northwestern	36	0.30%	0.1%
36	Georgia Tech	41	0.16%	0.0%
37	Memphis	29	0.12%	0.1%
38	Minnesota	44	0.11%	0.1%
39	Arizona State	38	0.10%	0.1%
40	Maryland	47	0.09%	0.1%
41	Fresno State	35	0.08%	0.1%
42	Wake Forest	49	0.07%	0.0%
43	Florida State	39	0.05%	-4.1%
44	Arkansas	46	0.05%	0.0%
45	Central Florida	40	0.05%	0.0%
46	Iowa State	45	0.05%	0.0%
47	Texas	32	0.04%	-2.5%
48	Syracuse	59	0.02%	0.0%
49	Virginia	61	0.02%	0.0%
50	Toledo	55	0.02%	0.0%
51	Nebraska	48	0.01%	0.0%
52	Louisville	50	0.01%	-0.6%
53	Colorado	51	0.01%	0.0%
54	Marshall	65	0.01%	0.0%
55	North Texas	73	0.01%	0.0%
56	Baylor	56	0.01%	0.0%
57	Vanderbilt	60	0.00%	0.0%
58	Indiana	63	0.00%	0.0%
59	Pitt	53	0.00%	0.0%
60	Kentucky	62	0.00%	0.0%
61	North Carolina	54	0.00%	-0.1%
62	Arizona	58	0.00%	-0.4%
63	Houston	69	0.00%	0.0%
64	Kansas State	57	0.00%	-0.1%
65	Cincinnati	74	0.00%	0.0%
66	South Florida	66	0.00%	0.0%
67	Rutgers	75	0.00%	0.0%
68	UAB	83	0.00%	0.0%
69	Arkansas State	81	0.00%	0.0%
70	Georgia Southern	99	0.00%	0.0%
71	Buffalo	97	0.00%	0.0%
72	Illinois	94	0.00%	0.0%
73	UCLA	67	0.00%	-0.1%
74	Texas Tech	64	0.00%	0.0%
75	Purdue	52	0.00%	0.0%
76	Tennessee	76	0.00%	0.0%
77	Oregon State	101	0.00%	0.0%
78	Kansas	110	0.00%	0.0%
79	Ohio	96	0.00%	0.0%
80	Louisiana Tech	82	0.00%	0.0%
81	Louisiana-Monroe	114	0.00%	0.0%
82	BYU	71	0.00%	0.0%
83	Tulsa	88	0.00%	0.0%
84	Ball State	104	0.00%	0.0%
85	Southern Miss	95	0.00%	0.0%
86	Air Force	80	0.00%	0.0%
87	New Mexico	106	0.00%	0.0%
88	Nevada	77	0.00%	0.0%
89	Georgia State	118	0.00%	0.0%
90	Akron	113	0.00%	0.0%
91	Eastern Michigan	87	0.00%	0.0%
92	Hawaii	109	0.00%	0.0%
93	Liberty	102	0.00%	0.0%
94	Louisiana-Lafayette	112	0.00%	0.0%
95	Charlotte	119	0.00%	0.0%

1. A seemingly tame Week 1 nonetheless shakes up the rankings a good bit.  Part of this is because of the fallout from three Top-15 teams losing.  Part of this is underperformance from some of the top teams.  And part of this is because two of the three systems I use are very reactive to early results.  The result of this chaos?  The same top four we had in the 2016 Playoff.  Boooring.

2. The rest of the rankings are decidedly less boring.  The Irish climb up to #5 because 1) they passed a big test, and 2) their SOS is in that sweet spot where it's strong enough to impress the committee, but not too strong that they won't be favored in every remaining game.  Iowa (?) and Boston College (???)* are now in the top 20 after dominant performances.  And West Virginia finally starts to match its public perception by climbing into the top 25.

*Conference opponents Miami, Florida State, Louisville, and NC State all look worse than we initially thought, so someone had to fill that space.

3. Did your favorite Group of Five team lose in Week 1 (or Week 0)?  If so, they're officially eliminated now.  We say goodbye to Appalachian State, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Troy, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Utah State, Wyoming, Miami (OH), Army, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Coastal Carolina, Navy, Old Dominion, UTSA, Temple, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, San Jose State, UConn, East Carolina, Florida International, Kent State, Massachusetts, UNLV, Rice, South Alabama, SMU, UTEP, Texas State, Tulane, New Mexico State, and Colorado State.  I also removed Ole Miss because I am dumb and forgot to do it at the start of the season.

4. No massive changes to the conference-level odds.  The ACC, Pac-12, and Big Ten all take slight hits, while Oklahoma almost single-handedly lifts its league up (as usual).  After a 13-1 week, the SEC is far and away the favorite to place two teams in the Playoff.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.387
B10	0.843
ACC	0.691
B12	0.495
IND	0.333
P12	0.245
MWC	0.007
AMER	0.002
CUSA	0.000
MAC	0.000
SB	0.000

Week 2 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Texas A&M	Clemson	24.7%	0.052
South Carolina	Georgia	24.8%	0.019
Stanford	USC	67.8%	0.012
Arizona State	Michigan State	35.9%	0.009
Pitt	Penn State	21.2%	0.006
Oklahoma	UCLA	96.1%	0.006
Kansas State	Mississippi State	16.3%	0.006
Iowa	Iowa State	77.5%	0.004
Ohio State	Rutgers	97.5%	0.004
Alabama	Arkansas State	98.7%	0.003

This is not an obviously sexy week, but we do get a bunch of top-15 teams going on the road to face teams of varying feistiness.  We also get the most meaningful El Assico in years, so please enjoy that.