| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 80.07% | -7.4% |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 7 | 72.73% | 12.6% |
| 3 | Clemson | 4 | 72.47% | 16.9% |
| 4 | Georgia | 5 | 62.23% | 18.9% |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 13 | 30.20% | -43.2% |
| 6 | Auburn | 6 | 27.52% | 22.6% |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 9 | 24.43% | 10.2% |
| 8 | Ohio State | 2 | 11.80% | 4.6% |
| 9 | Penn State | 3 | 9.83% | 4.2% |
| 10 | Central Florida | 15 | 3.20% | -15.1% |
| 11 | USC | 17 | 2.66% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Washington | 8 | 1.61% | 1.1% |
| 13 | TCU | 11 | 1.26% | 0.8% |
1. So Alabama is still first. That may seem odd, but it makes sense when you remember that they don't have to play any more games, and thus are guaranteed to finish with just one loss. Many of the teams below the Tide will leap them should they win next Saturday. Wisconsin would jump to #1 with a win. Clemson and Georgia would both pass Bama with wins. Miami would just barely pass them. In short, Alabama could be as low as fourth in my final model, but that still means my model tends to think they will make the Playoff.
2. You may notice that I adjusted Central Florida again. The committee's consistently poor treatment of Group of Five teams leads me to believe that it will be nearly impossible for one to make the playoff. This led me to theorize that I should treat UCF like a two-loss power conference team. This means that their SOS, while quite strong for a non-power schedule, is now treated as roughly equal to teams such as USC and TCU. The resulting playoff odds feel much more in line with reality. I will re-visit this in the offseason to determine how to proceed moving forward.
3. We say goodbye to Washington State and Notre Dame, as they both finish their seasons 9-3. The Irish's strong SOS (currently projected at .618, which is good for second in the nation, behind only Maryland) would've made for a fun case study for my model.
4. In case you didn't notice in the first chart, it's now pretty likely that the SEC gets two teams in. If Oklahoma wins, it'll be a much closer case. If the Sooners lose, get ready for people to be unnecessarily angry.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.698 |
| ACC | 1.027 |
| B10 | 0.944 |
| B12 | 0.257 |
| P12 | 0.043 |
| AMER | 0.032 |
Week 14 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Auburn | Georgia | 53.1% | 0.293 |
| Clemson | Miami (FL) | 71.3% | 0.212 |
| Ohio State | Wisconsin | 61.4% | 0.194 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 63.9% | 0.056 |
| USC | Stanford | 48.1% | 0.015 |
| Central Florida | Memphis | 70.0% | 0.010 |
I've been doing this for three years now, and the top three games on this list are the 1st, 2nd, and 4th most consequential games during that span. So yeah, this is probably the best Championship weekend of the playoff era. Three virtual play-in games, plus a really fun matchup in the Big 12 should make for a riveting day.
No comments:
Post a Comment