| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 87.46% | -0.8% |
| 2 | Miami (FL) | 12 | 73.44% | -2.4% |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 7 | 60.15% | 11.8% |
| 4 | Clemson | 3 | 55.57% | -3.5% |
| 5 | Georgia | 5 | 43.30% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 10 | 25.91% | -3.2% |
| 7 | Central Florida | 14 | 18.29% | -1.7% |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 9 | 14.25% | 0.5% |
| 9 | Ohio State | 2 | 7.23% | -0.2% |
| 10 | Penn State | 4 | 5.62% | -0.7% |
| 11 | Auburn | 6 | 4.94% | 0.4% |
| 12 | USC | 18 | 2.60% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Washington | 8 | 0.55% | 0.0% |
| 14 | TCU | 11 | 0.47% | 0.1% |
| 15 | Washington State | 23 | 0.21% | 0.0% |
1. The least consequential weekend of the year barely changed anything. Wisconsin takes a small bite out of everyone else's odds after passing their biggest test thus far. ND and UCF are still a bit too high, but they both fell just a bit. Ohio State sits on the periphery still, which means they'll probably win the title.
2. Just two teams leave us after the quietest weekend of the year: Michigan and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are the best team to leave the playoff chase, but they're still just 12th in the aggregate rankings.
3. The conference-level stats remain familiar. Both the SEC and ACC still have a decent chance of getting two teams in. The Pac 12 is still dead.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.357 |
| ACC | 1.290 |
| B10 | 0.730 |
| IND | 0.259 |
| AMER | 0.183 |
| B12 | 0.147 |
| P12 | 0.034 |
4. Four conference title matchups are completely decided, and all but one have at least one participant. The MAC is the only conference where the final week will decide all. And the Sun Belt is completely bananas.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 100.0% | |||
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 100.0% | |||
| AMEE | Central Florida | 79.3% | South Florida | 20.7% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 100.0% | |||
| B10E | Ohio State | 100.0% | |||
| B10W | Wisconsin | 100.0% | |||
| B12 | Oklahoma | 100.0% | TCU | 97.0% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 100.0% | |||
| CUSAW | North Texas | 100.0% | |||
| MACE | Akron | 91.2% | Ohio | 8.8% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 77.0% | Northern Illinois | 19.6% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 100.0% | |||
| MWCM | Boise State | 100.0% | |||
| P12N | Stanford | 82.7% | Washington State | 17.3% | |
| P12S | USC | 100.0% | |||
| SECE | Georgia | 100.0% | |||
| SECW | Alabama | 62.2% | Auburn | 37.8% | |
| SUN | Appalachian State | 38.5% | Arkansas State | 27.6% |
Week 13 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Auburn | Alabama | 37.9% | 0.141 |
| Stanford | Notre Dame | 42.3% | 0.110 |
| Georgia Tech | Georgia | 21.7% | 0.047 |
| South Carolina | Clemson | 15.8% | 0.044 |
| Pitt | Miami (FL) | 16.1% | 0.039 |
| Central Florida | South Florida | 78.7% | 0.039 |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | 10.6% | 0.021 |
| Michigan | Ohio State | 21.0% | 0.015 |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | 87.8% | 0.009 |
| Maryland | Penn State | 6.2% | 0.003 |
| Washington | Washington State | 82.6% | 0.003 |
| TCU | Baylor | 95.2% | 0.000 |
Thanksgiving weekend will be one of the best of the year, thanks in large part to another formidable slate of home underdogs. The Iron Bowl is the obvious highlight, but the true beauty of the weekend is that these 12 games take place in six different timeslots, so there's pretty much always something halfway decent on. Enjoy.
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