| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 76.52% | 7.3% |
| 2 | Georgia | 3 | 67.01% | 3.2% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 6 | 51.85% | 8.0% |
| 4 | Clemson | 7 | 43.82% | 8.4% |
| 5 | Central Florida | 15 | 41.87% | 13.3% |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 9 | 39.54% | 18.1% |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 13 | 39.29% | 19.7% |
| 8 | Washington | 4 | 12.22% | 5.0% |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 10 | 6.59% | 3.1% |
| 10 | Penn State | 5 | 6.46% | -46.5% |
| 11 | TCU | 11 | 5.99% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Ohio State | 2 | 5.47% | -40.6% |
| 13 | USC | 16 | 1.20% | 0.6% |
| 14 | Auburn | 8 | 0.94% | 0.6% |
| 15 | Mississippi State | 17 | 0.54% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Virginia Tech | 14 | 0.23% | -1.4% |
| 17 | Michigan State | 27 | 0.18% | 0.2% |
| 18 | Michigan | 19 | 0.13% | 0.1% |
| 19 | Oklahoma State | 12 | 0.08% | -1.6% |
| 20 | Washington State | 25 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
1. Even though Saturday was a little crazy, the playoff odds are pretty simple this week: If you were Ohio State or Penn State, you tumbled. If you were anyone else you picked up part of what they lost. Yes, I know Central Florida is too high. The adjustment I made last season to account for Western Michigan's oddly bad SOS (they beat four teams that lost to FCS teams) is having the opposite effect on UCF. As their SOS is better than any undefeated Group of Five team in the past two decades, I'm not quite sure how to deal with them. I will probably revisit it in the offseason again.
2. Seven teams collected their third loss this week: North Carolina State, Stanford, Iowa State, South Carolina, LSU, Arizona, and Kentucky. With Kentucky's loss, all of the remaining contenders are legitimately good teams. In fact, all of the top 17 teams in the aggregate ratings remain in the field, which is highly unusual (remember last year when three-loss USC spent all of November as a three-loss top-ten team?).
3. The SEC is basically a coin flip to get two teams in. The Big Ten has roughly the same playoff odds as Notre Dame. Things are getting weird.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.450 |
| ACC | 0.833 |
| IND | 0.518 |
| B10 | 0.518 |
| AMER | 0.419 |
| P12 | 0.135 |
| B12 | 0.127 |
4. Congrats to Georgia on being the first team to clinch their division. In related news, Miami hasn't technically clinched, but Virginia only overtook the Canes in 4 of the 10,000 simulations, so it probably isn't happening in reality. And Toledo is probably going to their first MAC title game in more than a decade.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 96.3% | North Carolina State | 3.7% | |
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 100.0% | Virginia | 0.0% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 80.3% | South Florida | 19.8% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 89.7% | SMU | 7.9% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 79.9% | Michigan State | 13.2% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 99.6% | Northwestern | 0.3% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 86.1% | TCU | 75.5% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 91.7% | Florida International | 7.9% | |
| CUSAW | North Texas | 98.2% | UAB | 1.0% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 66.4% | Akron | 32.5% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 90.3% | Northern Illinois | 6.6% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 70.6% | San Diego State | 28.9% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 81.1% | Wyoming | 9.2% | |
| P12N | Washington | 68.0% | Stanford | 24.4% | |
| P12S | USC | 98.0% | Arizona | 1.1% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 100.0% | |||
| SECW | Alabama | 82.5% | Auburn | 16.4% | |
| SUN | Arkansas State | 61.8% | Appalachian State | 18.5% |
Week 11 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Miami (FL) | Notre Dame | 36.9% | 0.178 |
| Auburn | Georgia | 47.5% | 0.111 |
| Mississippi State | Alabama | 19.2% | 0.053 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 61.1% | 0.031 |
| Wisconsin | Iowa | 77.6% | 0.029 |
| Clemson | Florida State | 87.2% | 0.028 |
| Stanford | Washington | 30.6% | 0.019 |
| Central Florida | UConn | 98.1% | 0.008 |
| Ohio State | Michigan State | 88.9% | 0.008 |
| Colorado | USC | 21.7% | 0.003 |
In terms of high-end depth of quality, Week 11 is probably the best weekend of the year. All four of the undefeated Power 5 teams face stiff tests, and almost every other contender will have to sweat it out as well. If you catch anyone worrying that there will be too many playoff contenders at the end of the season, maybe tell them to wait a week.
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